The lowering to junk Status is probably 3 or 4 nails away now from the implosion of many firms , Phumelela has to be odds on.
The issue will come because the "assets" are actually needed for the sport to continue. The geniuses leveraged the land against loans. When the creditors come knocking then the problems start.
Personally i think this is a good thing. I compare it mildly to amputating a pinkie but saving the hand and with time the hand will adjust and be just as strong.
I agree with Easy that this is probably a good thing as it has been a sword hanging over us for an uncomfortable amount of time. Short term it will hurt with SA debt now costing more, placing even more restrictions on the government to provide stimulus to the economy during an unprecedented time.
On the upside the rand will now not be subject to constant speculation about how much of this expected event was already priced in which might help to stabilise the currency, albeit at probably a higher level than before the downgrade. This will force the government to take corrective steps that they were reluctant to do previously given the political consequences of austerity. Longer term this will see a more robust economy and better opportunities for growth and for much needed job creation. The current pandemic has also broken the stranglehold that trade unions have had over government and commerce which will allow the space for critical wage negotiations and a lower cost base over time.
We should also see good inflows from overseas in future despite the downgrade as most developed countries offer almost zero yields and developing countries high single digits which with a more stable currency will make us a recipient again of foreign flows.
I guess its pretty much the pain before the gain that is worrying and the length of time that we will be at the mercy of the virus restrictions.
Praying for a good outcome and best case recovery.
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