Kenilworth, 18/11

Pirhobeta wrote: I fancy both of Woodruff's horses on looks for places...

Dollar Brand R5,10 a place...

Sammy Silver wrote: DOUBLE CHARGE my bet of the day!

Thanks Sammy. I went in with you, mate.

Had Tara Iti got a place I would have cleaned up on quartets, trifectas and places, but happy for the tip and to show a profit. Nice work, mate!

Golightly...EW

Farrier...has the busiest job on the course...in RSA...:whistle:

More shoes falling off (and rearing)

My banker of the day is Seventh Gear.

Here's why...:

Best weighted of the race are Seventh Gear, Capoeira and Helen's Ideal. For me, Capoeira is flattered by its MR, and Nel has said its a 'prep' run, so discounting that one

Class wise, I think that they have all run in this sort of class before. Obviously Capoeira has run against stronger. I do think that Seventh Gear is on the up and has not been penalized too much for its last two wins. Ran against some useful sorts in Cape Features last year. I really do not like the form of Knights Templar's last race because all the horses finished on top of each other, so I dont know how strong the form is.

Conditions wise, Seventh Gear has never run 1800 (but won over 1600). Other than Love Happens there are not a lot of horses that want to make the pace, thus I think that this race will run like a 1600. I also think that the wind, and short run in, will favour horses who have acceleration, which the selection has. I expect him to lie midfield in a middling pace race, turn about 3 to 4 lengths off them and go by.

Others:
Capoeira, discounted because of reasons above
Helen's ideal. Distance too far
Knights Templar, place definite and the horse can win as it looks to be building up to a big run, can accelerate, run against same class, etc, but for me, not the winner because of I (personally) question the form of the last race and badly is out at the weights compared to the selection
Love Happens, could have the run of the race and pop up if very slow pace, but Headwind not in her favour
Man About Town and Azores look to need some MR relief before they win again. For me, both are not really going to go hell for leather for the win, if you know what I mean.

This is my logic folks!

Capoeira

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@bokked .... I actually like Helen's Ideal today. bankered in jpt

Man About Town...looked well in himself...maybe into the quartet...depends on his breathing

Cape Crawl was the fear and it came through. Well ridden Mr Zackey

Azores backed on the tote like the result was known...

5 9.50 8.50 13.60 14.10 14.60 19.40

Magi wrote: @bokked .... I actually like Helen's Ideal today. bankered in jpt

Didnt like her distance stats there

Race should have been won by Knighst Templar as those were the only two in the race with the requisite acceleration in the short straight but Zackey realised that there was no FR in the race and took a horse that has NEVER won entirely from the front and nicked it.

Kannemeyer did say before the race that the pace was his only worry. Ho hum!