MY FAVOURITE BET TYPE IS:

Hey Garrick,you always have done well at sports betting and i am glad to see we have not entirely lost you to the racing industry. Maybe you should post a few of your sports bets prior to the matches and we can follow your progress or even play along,obviously not at your level.Punters should always pull for each other.What say you ?

Hi Neil,

I would be happy to do that but, to be fair, in most cases the outcome is pretty obvious!

Nevertheless - Here are a few pointers for anybody who might be interested in the 2009 Super 14 - which is not that far off!

There are one or two things to be aware of when assessing the long term prospects of the respective sides :

1.) Each side plays 13 games. VERY IMPORTANTLY in alternate years they will have a home/away ratio of 7/6 or 6/7. This is material as well as the assessment of WHO they play at home and away. A relatively strong side might struggle if all their away games are against strong sides.

2.) Beware of big punts on any/all South African sides as they tend to be incredibly erratic - particularly against Aus/NZ opponents. No matter how much you fancy them they still appear to have 'mind problems' unless it is against their own countrymen.

3.) For the smaller player looking for value seek out a double comprising a side to make it into the last four x the side you may fancy to win. But get your timing right by studying the fixture list as some sides come from behind to make the semis. NEVER be afraid to 'average out' ( ie back them again after a losing run ) as this is where you tend to make the big money.

4.) Find a bookmaker who will 'take back' a portion of your second leg if your choice makes the semis. The sooner you learn that betting is about profit rather than Hiroshimic wins the better you will do.

5.) If you prefer to bet on spreads you will generally find it more profitable to bet on the + rather than the -. Often a side priced at +12 will score first - which effectively pushes the spread out to +19 and makes it daunting to be with the stronger side.

On big spreads the stronger side tends to bring on replacements when they are comforatably in front. But they are not necessarily ahead on the spread! You will want to pull your hair out. Furthermore they often concede a 'consolation' late try which puts you in the poorhouse but sends them home smiling.

6.) When assessing a match involving a spread divide it into 4 quarters. Then ask yourself : Is this side capable of scoring x number of points in each quarter?

eg If the spread is 16 then you need to score 4 points WITHOUT REPLY in each 20 minute quarter. Points conceded as well as the passage of time can turn around this objective very quickly.

7.) BEWARE local derbies as they throw up results. You can look up past results - it's called studying form!

The best thing about punting on rugby is that form DOES work out well. But you are going to have to stop being a FAN and become a STUDENT of the game. As I have often stated before - I sometimes cannot believe my good fortune in getting a price of,say, 5/10 on a 'good thing' where there are only two alternative outcomes - lose or draw. Think about that before you jump on another 5/10 C Laird or MDK first timer who is probably as green as grass and lining up against possibly 11 ( albeit modest ) opponents........

Then go through the variables : slow away, bumped, misses the break, dislodges jockey, baulked, runs green, shifts from whip, jockey loses stirrup, shies from the winning post, falls, breaks down,.......to say nothing of what you did not know!

Break a leg!

Thaks Garrick, i have printed your info and will attempt to venture into unchartered waters.

Hi Garrick,

You have me licking my lips at the thought of S14 -really enjoyed your piece and would love to post on Sportingweb (Credit ABC and yourself of course) - you ok with that?


Cheers

Brent

Soccer6 is a great bet. Credit to whoever picks fixtures. No obvious results included. R20k plus payouts not uncommon- 6 fields comes to R4374. Payouts usually represent good value. Soccer results as finicky as horses.

Often Tuesday & Wednesday nights - Champions league - spent flicking between 4 live games - alone. Who needs night racing??


Straight win bets are only way I can win in racing. For fun, double float quartets with field - % - has been my most profitable exotic. Need to find open races though preferablly with more than 12 runners

To Sportingweb - No problem. Help yourself.

Garrick, do you ever trade in running with the rugga. I have had alot of success with punting teams like the bulls, who often start like a house on fire and then switching after the first 35min.( especially away)

This tactic is not so easy in rugby as it is in cricket. In cricket the amount of times you see a flip flop with the price is crazy. Lay low, punt high.

Another question, do you play doubles and trebles and statistically how often do you take the fav's. I've stopped looking for the upset in boat races and just try stick to the "good things" ( Crusaders, old ACT, bulls @ home, anyone playing the stormers!!!)

A R6 swinger on 5 and 8 every race for a year

To Party Line,

I used to be a big 'in running' trader on Betfair but have turned that up for two reasons :

1.) I found it so addictive that it was encroaching on my business time.
2.) I realised that sooner or later it was going to land me in trouble with Exchange Control as I made a habit of repatriating my winnings.

Unfortunately it was always difficult to trade 'in running' on rugby ( unless it is 6 nations or World Cup ) as the Betfair market is very thin for Super 14.

I used to use doubles quite extensively until I learned how to discipline myself and carry forward the win and stake to the next leg. The % improvement in the final result can sometimes be well in excess of a 50% better payout - which you would normally have donated to the bookmaker.

Having said that - I would be clicking doubles into Pocket Power for the Met right now if that were my fancy for the big race. Certainly is an excellent way in which to accumulate enough 'stock' for a big win. But don't forget to lay off to protect your stake at the very least.

My opinion with regard to double, trebles, exotics is this : They have their place but appear to be primarily aimed at the 'lottery type punter' who has limited resources and dreams about a big win for a small outlay. Fair enough.

Cricket is fantastic for 'in running' betting. You just lay the short bet and trade out whenever a wicket falls or something unexpected happens.

With regard to your comment about the Bulls - that also applies to SA. Usually in the first 20 minutes they play like world beaters and then bumble along for the remainder of the match. Most South African sides battle to win from behind against foreign opponents. ( And I'm not referring to merely conceding an early penalty ). SA teams seldom put in 80 minutes.

Pick 6. By far the most challenging and most rewarding if you get it right.

"in running" still the best, need Interbet to get it up and "running".

Thanks Garrick, I have posted your piece on Sportingweb - here is the link www.sportingweb.co.za/sportingweb/view/s...?oid=11949&sn=Detail

Cheers and roll on the Super 14

Brent