Karl Neisius past sell by date?

I remember walking into a tote about 3 or more years ago to hear punters complaining about the Nesius show. Mark and Karl were cleaning up at the time and they were obviously not on their horses.

The point is we all think we are clever enough to beat the game, but alas we are not and we cannot go around blaming good jocks who cannot perform to our expectations and standards for our losses. Simple as that.

We also cant slam the "experts" for tips. One thing I have learnt from this game is that there are no experts in it. Hollybucks is a reality check and a good way to measure your skills against the "experts" and its free.

It needs to be weighed against the combined stats for all jockeys to put into perspective.

You pay your money
You take your chances

simple its our choice

Correct. And never forget that it's not jockeys who set the odds, although inevitably the better riders have a sometimes excessive effect on the prices bookies are prepared to lay.

When the bookies see Dettori up the price is automatically shortened by a couple of points. Remember that there are no broke bookies, they get to their business by bus or 10 year old car but when they take the family or the wife to dinner out come the Mercs and Ferraris

Excellent point Magic - I was thinking about this thread today and pricing also crossed my mind.

A lot of false favourites are created by riding appointments. Jockeys,trainers, horses dont set the prices. Hence the only form guides I use are ones without prices as this often leads to incorrect decisions being made based on prices.

MR points and prices are 2 things I try to not base selections on. Select first look at MR and pricing next if at all.

Shortening prices in SA, just as misleading. The poms are the only ones who get it right. I enjoy playing English racing because I can take a bet without looking at form, trainers, riding arrangements weights or MR. Just watch the prices,bet and collect.

C&C,I agree with you, Karl rides a lot false favourites as well. I remember Henny Hughes (Karls biggest fan) bitching one day on this forum about Karl running 4th on a short priced favourite. Very similar to this thread. The horses name was Aussie Rulz, Aussie R was eventually sold to MUR where he started evens in his 1st two starts and ran down the field. He won his 3rd start in an E div race in MUR and if I had a good pair of NIKES I would of probably won the race. If Aussie R was ridden by Bretts other Jocks (Botha, myself) would he be priced up an odds on Favourite??

Maybe he started off his career with lots of winners and people expect this to carry through 30 years or so of racing. Not possible as he is only human and not a machine. But I am sure that he is thick skinned because those who curse and scream are only doing so becasue they made the wrong choice and its cost them money. I say good luck and well done to him for having such a long, succesful and colourful career.

Valentino Rossi wins a lot of GP races but not every one. Why, well it simple sometimes the equipment does not measure up to competitors on the day. Sometimes he has a bad day,makes a mistake and falls off.

No one is invincible in their fields of expertise and sometimes equipment makes you look bad. If things can go wrong on millions of dollars worth of bike what makes us think that horses of flesh and blood and a mind of their own can win over and over again in fact every time they run. The same applies to the jocks that ride them.

Lets be realistic and find proof before we slander.

chicken n chips Wrote:

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> Remember that there are no broke bookies,

There have been plenty bookies who have seen their arse over the years, its far from a piece of cake to make millions as bookie in this game. In respect of Karl his detractors should only be too happy if he's priced him up too short all the time, he's becomes easier to oppose!

Karl has ridden many a winner for me but in a tight finish I'll take a strong jock like Anton. All riders have different styles but Karl's style is more about timing and judging the pace.

A jock like Anton/Moore/Murtagh look like they're dragging their horse over the line with them. Karl usually looks like he's taking it easy, even when he wins. Maybe this gets noticed more when runs unplaced or gets beat on a hotpot favourite.

Magic can bring up all the stats in the world but the perception out there amongst many in the punting public is that Karl rides well when he wants to. It's been like this for years, I'm sure that after all these years in the saddle Karl isnt losing any sleep over it anyway. The bottom line is if you don't like him, don't punt him...

a good post by saksy - perception

have you not heard the following jocks ride to win when they "feel" like it?

striker?
hill?
fortune?
lloyd?
uys?
lerena?

many, many more

talk out of your pocket is a way to justify your loss on a wager. someone besides yourself needs to take the blame.

mirrors have great qualities, go have a look and you will see where the problem lies.

magiclips Wrote:

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> In the current season to 8th July Neisius has had
> 87 wins, 76 seconds. 72 thirds and 68 fourths.
> When I was at school 68 was the smallest of those
> numbers, but why let quantifiable data screw a
> good conspiracy?

Magic if you have the time could you do the same for Anton?