NHRA..worst handicapping ever?

I didn't see that post,what's the story with Fort Vogue?

There is no story. Just the usual untrue rumours that inevitably surface at some stage prior to the July.

It's about that time of year I guess.

^{(this ended up too long..oh well!)}

To the handicappers, the merit rating system is a tool for frame the weights in handicaps, from the lowliest upwards. Real enthusiasts (like me) enjoy the sport more at it's higher levels.

We have no input whatsoever in how the great horses we love are rated by the professionals, and so we trust them to be consistent, fair and correct in the long run.

We do have an example from the UK where ratings at the highest level carry through the decades for eg Mill Reef, Nijinski and Sea The Stars, like an unofficial Hall Of Fame. I want to trust the officials to be good enough to rate Horse Chestnut 124, Empress Club and Flaming Rock 119 and Dynasty 117..or whatever. It's the leader board for our country, and the benchmark of the industry.

Clearly from my initial post and as Robert Bloomberg re-confirms, the handicapper did choose Smart Banker (4th! and beaten more than 2L) as their line horse. To make it worse, they faltered on their convictions because Smart Banker as a line horse would make Blue Tiger 120 and Big City Life 121 (instead of the 116/118 finally given). They couldn't quiet believe the proper outcome of their own decision... and quite rightly so! To make either BCL or BT the line horse would have done the least amount of damage to the existing ratings in what was a suspect race.

What's happening? A completely underpowered handicapping department is either battling against the myriad of rules which trap them daily into a downward spiral, or they just cannot handle the enormity of the job. So far one panel after another is sent in to apply band-aids when it now is clear that surgery is necessary.

There is NO stability in our benchmark, and I will bet you no overview strategy is in place or even moving averages or any other expert statistical evaluations (perhaps again Mr Moodley can confirm?). Racing people aren't statisticians and statisticians aren't horseman.

The evidence is overwhelming and every horse that leaves our shores is immediately reaccessed because they are unfailingly under-rated, a fact now acknowledged by every jurisdiction to which our horses travel. We must accept that it is an error to have very good horses like Tropical Empire and Blue Tiger rated higher than catergory champions, Horse Of The Year nominees and even Champions.

TM

_{PS the raising of the ratings by a global 6 points (after Eyeofthetiger's July) and the subsequent 3 points recently was an adjustment for a collapsing system where a downward drift is inevitable because failing horses are continually rewarded, and horses moving out of main centres go to areas where a 75% and 50% beaten length factor is applied (again continually). So the "adjustments" have nothing to do with incorrect relative ratings at the highest level.}

Hey Robert, please give us your views on the July? I'm sure the punters will enjoy reading your insightful analysis!

Saksy, penalties are still applicable up to the publishing of weights on 6 July, but at this stage i'm big on Fort Vogue (55 kgs) with River Jetez (54 kgs) the danger.

The handicappers gave both these horses 6 lb penalties after the Met when they had Fabiani as the line horse off his rating of 111 on the Queen's Plate run. After an objection by Mike Bass, the appeal panel were of the opinion that the winner River Jetez should be the line horse and she, Mother Russia and Fort Vogue duly "lost" their 6 lb penalty.My opinion is that Fabiani could have been used as the line horse, but off his rating of 108. I therefore believe that Fort Vogue and River Jetez are both 3 lb's underrated.

The only other possible runners the way I see it is Aslan (53,5 kgs), Irish Flame (55 kgs) and Bold Silvano (54,5 kgs).

Fort Vogue is 9 lbs better off with Bold Silvano on the 1900 run for a 2,5L beating and was given a comfortable re-introduction. Aslan is 7 lbs better off for a neck, but he was fairly flat to the boards. Don't read to much into Aslan's next run. The blinkers and pacifiers were removed and I doubt if they were exactly looking for a potential 6 lb penalty in that race.

Bold Silvano therefore looks held at the weights and of course he carries the hoodoo that the last horse to win the 1900 and the July was Occult 24 years ago in 1986. Irish Flame basically represents Bold Silvano on the Daily News run. I believe that he will finish in front of Bold Silvano again. Despite the weights everyone knows that you rule out MDK at your peril.

Having said all of that, it's Mike Bass for me with Fort Vogue and River Jetez (provided that if she wins the Gold Bracelet on Saturday she doesn't get penalized).

txs Robert much appreciated.

Reading the above Robert very knowledgeable,about handicapping.

Reading these threads is what made me realise that punting for me should just be for fun!

Thanks robert, much appreciated. Also like fort vogue although i think hes too short in the betting now. I dont think there are any standout bets at the moment...

Robert, I always respect your choices, but is it too early to pick your top four this July

The explanation below is for your information as per your email to Vee Moodley.



This years Gold Challenge was a difficult race to rate. Based on the way the race was run, Smart Banker looked like the key horse. Smart Banker had form over the distance and had been running to form in his last few starts. Pocket Power tended to hang inwards in the last 300m and clearly did not run to his best. Big City Life and Blue Tiger had now run in a Grade 1 weight for age race beating a 120, 116,116 horses at level weights. Big City Life is now the winner of 4 Grade 1 races and has got close to Pocket Power at level weights on a couple of occasions this season. Blue Tiger made the pace and stayed on. His form this season has been over shorter and difficult to use as a guide.



After much deliberation amongst the handicappers Smart Banker was used as the line horse making Big City Life run to a 120. As the handicappers were of the opinion that on past form Big City Life was not superior to Pocket Power’s and the difficulty of rating the race, Big City Life was raised to 118, 1,0kg superior to Smart Banker & Rudra and Blue Tiger was raised to 116, the equal of the 4th and 5th placed horses. Pocket Power’s rating was decreased to 119. This level and the form of this race will be reviewed in future.





Regards,



Roger Smith

Senior Handicapper