Durban July - Your fancies and WHY you fancy them?

I thought it would be fun to hear what you fancy for the big race, but more importantly WHY you fancy the particular horse?

I have included my selections and reasons below for my first 3.

1) Orbison: He was a favourite of mine through the season but he shot to the top of my list with his win in the Champions Cup. He sat handy behind a solid pace and kicked clear. He stays well and LOVES Greyville. He has won 2 very good races there. The only negative about him is his draw obviously. He will need loads of luck from there, but I think he has pace to sit up handy or he can also quicken from behind. Danielson will need the ride of his life, but he knows him well. Also he is part of the improving 3 year olds, where the others may be slightly more exposed.

2) Pocket Power: He is now and will always be one of my favourite race horses of his time! He is genuine and tries his best always. His draw is not in his favour but in Fayedherbe he has a solid jock who can make the right decisions. He is also a robust horse so a rough run race will not phase him. He is my 2nd choice more on sentiment but still a very serious runner even at almost 8 years of age.

3) Happy Valley: MDK's comments about him in the press have encouraged me to slip him above Irish Flame. He will ensure a good gallop and may just stay out in front long enough. He is improving and gelding has done him the world of good. All the MDK horses will not be separated by much and I won't be surprised if they run 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th! He is THAT good. For me Happy Valley will suit Greyville and must have a good chance!

Happy punting!

Aslan - Loves the course. Aimed for this race. Only trainer that can really win this race outside the Big three. Dangerous jockey / trainer combination
A bit underated imo, so carrying a good galloping weight. GOOD GOOD VALUE

Nice topic, Tommy; I can make a case for most runners; but let's try the 1st 4:

1) Bold Silvano - Although held by Orbison on their last run, imo that was more of a prep run from Bold Silvano and he will improve a lot come 31 July; he also seems held on the Greyville 1900 run, but I think the form in that race is suspect (even Goat has a chance on that form); BS has the draw, his jock knows how to win this race, and off course he comes from the all-powerful de Kock yard

2) Russian Sage - impressed me in the gallop last week and we may not yet have seen the best of him in this country; ran 3.35 lengths behind PP and DD 2 years ago from a 19 draw - older horse getting weight from most of the fancied 3yr olds - definite place chance imo

3) Orbison - In great form, has the field stone cold on the Champions Cup run, but does his jock have what it takes to win the July? Also drawn wide, so probably a place

4) Lizarre - well weighted, Striker rides, from the de Kock yard and he has beaten Orbison earlier at level weights - draw is a real setback, so hard to seen him win from there

After these 4 it gets even tougher to separate them; PP put up a great gallop, but has it all to do with 60 on his back and a wide draw; RJ had a nice prep, but could be threatened by Goat on their last meeting, Irish Flame may have gone over the top and could be held by Happy Valley on their last meeting; Fort Vogue did not get the best prep imo and his gallop was unimpressive - but blinkers could aid his cause on the day; Aslan has a chance on the Greyville 1900 run, but is held by Captain Scott (why no blinkers for this one) on the Summer Cup run; Flying Tristam is well handicapped but has a bad draw - any of these could make the top 4 imo.

The ones I really see as unlikely to make the quartet (which probably mean they will run 1,2,3,4) include Rudra, who is badly treated at the weights, Fabiani, who has seemingly lost the plot, Red Rake, who seems unsuited to the track, Ancestral Fore, who is not well handicapped imo, Love is in the Air, who seems held by both Goat and River Jetez, Service Ace, who is well held by Happy Valley, and Vertical Takeoff who could finish in front of Ancestral Fore at the weights, but still has a tough task against these imo.

Am i being way too Critical when i say Mdk`s yard might not be firing 100% atm?

Fort Vogue for me...Bass and Marcus know how to win a July
I believe that no other horse has been better prepared specifically for this race...got in with a good weight
last time he ran with blinkers was in the Met ..1 length off winner, 6 months on he has to have matured into a serious prospect and now in blinkers again
last two runs were without and also 3rd run after his break. Lastly Marcus could surely have picked from many of the other top horses.
getting 8/1 at present backing him every day a little...

Hi Guys

ASLAN for a red hot jockey in FELIX COETZEE.
I always look for value and believe LIZZARE a Greyville specialist represents value.
One other thing GLEN HATT rides RIVER JETEZ to victory in the MET and now jumps onto FLYING TRISTRAM . Did anyone find that odd.

Good evening pinochio how can we trust you? can you post a picture the nose will be fine ()

Irish Flame is a champion. Hopefully if it wins the July for Jack Dash (the breeder) everybody will agree. It amazes me that nobody in any selection panels is choosing it.

i vote PP

Shayne Welman Wrote:

---

> i vote PP


Thanks Syl, but I think you may be missing the point. I would like you to tell me WHY you fancy what you fancy.

FLYING TRISTAM - I think something went amiss for a short while with this horse, but is back to best last 2 runs, nicely weighted, very experienced jock on board and is the sort of horse where a typical muddling July pace will pay off for. 30/1 is a nice ew price.

ASLAN - agree with other comments, we haven't seen best of him, course suited and trainer will have him ready for Sat. 18/1.

LOVE IS IN THE AIR - Bass doesn't enter horses without having a chance, and I have a feeling that this filly is possibly giving River Jetez a good run for her money at home, despite dissapointing last run. Could be the Zirconeum of this year, skip clear turning for home. 14/1 a place!

Mike de Kock said on Winning Ways that anyone saying that Irish Flame has gone 'over the top' (and I was one that held that belief) should check with him before saying/writing such 'rubbish' and that the horse was definitely not 'over the top'; it may actually not have been tuned 100% for the Derby run - leaving him with something to work with to get him 100% for the July. So it would be foolish imo to take the Derby run at face value.

He also said that Bold Silvano is an exceptional horse up to 2000 (and that if things pan out they are hoping to run him in the World Cup next year), but that there may be a slight doubt about him seeing out the 2200.

Taking the above into account, I would like to amend my original selections:

1) Bold Silvano - I still think he will see out the trip
2) Russian Sage - Still the 'dark' horse imo
3) Irish Flame - obvious claims
4) Orbison - definite chance on his last win