HORSE BY HORSE JULY PREVIEW: BOLD SILVANO COULD LEAD HOME DE KOCK CHARGE

The fever had to be drawn out by an extra three weeks this year due to the soccer World Cup but the Vodacom Durban July is well and truly upon us, with only days to go before the 2010 edition of South Africa's premier horse race. There are some notable names missing and there's no doubt that the likes of Big City Life, Bravura and Pierre Jourdan would have added an extra dimension to the 2200m showpiece to be run at Greyville on Saturday. Be that as it may, there's plenty of class on show and an absorbing contest is on the cards.

Trainer Mike de Kock has carried all before him over the last few months and it's hardly a surprise that he's the man to beat. He's got a record seven representatives in the final field, spearheaded by the impressive trio of Irish Flame, Bold Silvano and Ancestral Fore. We've seen the yard finish 1-2 in a number of big races this season, not to mention completing the trifecta in the recent Gold Circle Oaks, and it's very much on the cards that his runners will once again dominate the finish.

The main challenge should come from the yards of Mike Bass

and Herman Brown. Bass's stable elect for the past three years has been the mighty Pocket Power and the old warrior, despite being on the verge of turning eight, may still be good enough to finish on top of them in his fourth attempt at the big race. However, the signs are there that full-sister River Jetez is more likely to fly the flag for the yard this time around: about to turn seven, she's no spring chicken herself, but the ultra-consistent mare actually seems to be in the form of her life this season and may yet provide Jeff Lloyd with that elusive July win as she still seems to be on the upgrade, even as her older brother seems to show slight signs of decline.

Bass has another string to his bow in the form of Fort Vogue and son of Fort Wood has shown enough to be considered a real contender here.

Brown will be represented by the up-and-coming Orbison, who shot to prominence with a convincing win in the Champions Cup at the beginning of July, leaving his previous form well behind him. A repeat of that effort must bring him right into the reckoning.

The rest may find themselves up against it in this field, with the exception of Aslan, gutsy winner of the Summer Cup in 2009, and former champion 3-year-old Russian Sage, who is looking to resurrect his career following a disappointing overseas campaign. Either of these runners could just sneak into the quartet at best.

From a Pick 6 and Jackpot perspective, it doesn't look the most difficult July, thanks to the de Kock and Bass couplings. The quartet is a trickier affair, with a good few runners having credible place chances, but one has to stick ones neck out and the selection is Bold Silvano to turn the tables on Irish Flame with River Jetez a big danger and Pocket Power's class carrying him into the minor placings.

1. POCKET POWER: The best horse in the race, in terms of career achievement, but age is creeping up on him and that famous finishing kick is no longer there on demand; hence he's had to settle for third in his last three Gr 1 attempts. He's too good to write off completely, though, and while he'll probably find a couple of young guns to beat him, he remains an absolute must for the quartet.

2. RUDRA: An obvious contender on his best form, which includes an emphatic win in the 2008 Summer Cup. Rested for 14 months after that race and made an impressive comeback with a string of good efforts in Johannesburg during the autumn season. However, his two most recent efforts, in the Gold Challenge and Champions Cup respectively, were rather lacklustre. He may have found those races on the sharp side, but he now has to concede weight to some very smart rivals, including his own stablemates, and he looks to have his work cut out on current form.

3. FABIANI: Came to the fore during the Cape summer season with a string of good performances and was not beaten far in either the Queens Plate and J & B Met. Well below par in the Gold Challenge and Champions Cup, though, and hard to fancy on current form.

4. IRISH FLAME: Runaway winner of the SA Derby in stamina-sapping conditions, but showed his versatility when dropping back in trip to win the Daily News 2000 at this track, an important prep for this race. Did the bare minimum when winning the Gold Circle Derby and should be fully primed for his date with destiny. As with all the leading 3-year-olds in the race, faces a stiff task at the weights, but with the race being run almost a month later this year, that may not be as huge an obstacle. Big chance.

5. FORT VOGUE: Ran the race of his life when fourth in the J & B Met and has had a pleasing preparation for this race, finishing a close fifth in the Greyville 1900 under a big weight (now better off with the runners who beat him in that race) and surely not fully tuned up when going down narrowly to Flying Tristram in a Pinnacle Stakes. Anton Marcus is a significant jockey booking and Fort Vogue looks set for a big run here.

6. BOLD SILVANO: Has come into his own this winter with a string of good performances, scoring a narrow win in the Betting World 1900 and then giving Irish Flame a real scare when second in the Daily News 2000 (now a pound better off with his stable companion, giving him a real chance of reversing the form). His last effort may have been the best of the lot: in a race where nothing else was able to run on from off the pace, he came from last to finish fourth in the Champions Cup and was doing his best work late. Has plenty in his favour - Delpech on board, loves this track and is well drawn - so it will be no surprise to see him in the winner's box.

7. ORBISON: Looked promising enough but nothing could have prepared form students for his clear-cut win in the Champions Cup where he put a very talented field to the sword, making some serious middle-distance horses look second-rate. Has a great chance on that run but will need luck from a poor draw and is 1kg worse off with Bold Silvano (fourth) and 1.5kg worse off with Pocket Power (third).

8. RED RAKE: A recent addition to the de Kock yard, Red Rake is an effective front runner and scored his biggest win with an impressive all-the-way effort in the Premiers Trophy during the summer. However, has been found wanting when taking on the really big guns and hard to fancy in this line-up.

9. ANCESTRAL FORE: Impressive victories in both the Lonsdale Stirrup Cup and Canon Gold Cup, suggesting that the July trip will be on the sharp side for him. However, both those staying victories came in the manner of a top middle-distance horse, as he showed an ability to switch off early on and then quicken up and leave his opposition for dead. Crucially, has already shown his ability to carry weight against older horses. Difficult draw but has a top jockey in Karl Neisius and could well make the frame here.

10. RIVER JETEZ: Looking better than ever this season, scoring a long-awaited Gr 1 victory in the J & B Met, and showing her wellbeing when easily disposing of the opposition in the Gold Bracelet last time out. Has an OK draw, doesn't know how to run a bad race, and Jeff Lloyd flies in from Down Under for the ride. Serious contender.

11. ASLAN: Showed tremendous courage to win the Summer Cup back in November but was fully extended despite racing off joint bottom weight and a bare reading of that form leaves him with plenty to do against this much stronger field. Looked in good nick when going down narrowly to Bold Silvano in the Betting World 1900 but rather disappointing in two subsequent Pinnacle Stakes efforts, even allowing for the fact that he would not have been at his peak just yet. Still, trainer Sean Tarry has been aiming at this race and has got him in under a pretty handy weight. Felix Coetzee will offer maximum assistance from the saddle and Aslan could be in the shake-up at best.

12. LOVE IS IN THE AIR: One of the better fillies around and delivered on her early promise when sharing the honours in the Gr 1 Majorca Stakes in January. However, this is an altogether different test and while she undoubtedly has ability, she looks to have too much to do against this level of opposition.

13. HAPPY VALLEY: The Argentine-bred grey has always looked to have potential but had to be gelded before delivering, running a great race when second to stablemate Irish Flame in the Gold Circle Derby. As good as that effort was, he still has a bit of a mountain climb in this field and this race probably comes a bit too soon for him.

14. CAPTAIN SCOTT: Also a grey, Captain Scott is an honest sort and has run well in graded company, including a close fourth in the Summer Cup. However, he's had his limitations exposed in the process and is likely to find this too tough.

15. LIZARRE: Another recent addition to the de Kock string, Lizarre showed he could compete when not beaten far in the big Cape classics and justified the confidence of then-trainer Mike Miller with a creditable third in the Daily News 2000. Warmed up with a close fifth in a Pinnacle Stakes last time out and loves this track but still needs to step up a notch on what he's shown to have any chance here, especially from draw 20.

16. RUSSIAN SAGE: His recent form is far off what's required to be a July contender, but don't be fooled: Russian Sage was a champion at three and ran a decent race in the 2008 July, where he was forced to make the running from a dreadful draw and only tired late. Things went awry during a subsequent overseas campaign but he has been working his way back to form in two starts since returning to SA. Not badly weighted for a horse who completed the prestigious Cape Derby - Daily News 2000 double, has an able pilot in Richard Fourie, and could be the one who makes the trifecta and quartet pay.

17. FLYING TRISTRAM: Not a bad sort by any means and has beaten all of Orbison, Fort Vogue, Lizarre and Aslan in recent starts. It may therefore seem unfair to write off his chances, but whether his victims were at their best when he beat them is open to question. The fact that Anton Marcus has abandoned him for Fort Vogue has to set alarm bells ringing and while Glen Hatt is a top rider in his own right, Flying Tristram looks to be just short of what's needed to win a race of this nature, especially from a poor draw.

18. SERVICE ACE: Placed in both the SA Derby and its KwaZulu-Natal equivalent, but was beaten some distance in both of them and it's hard to see him making an impact against this much stronger field.

19. VERTICAL TAKEOFF: Got his career back on track with a string of good staying performances, culminating in a good second in the Gold Cup. However, needs further than this to be effective against this level of opposition and is likely to find things happening a shade too quickly for his liking over this trip.

20. GOAT: Whoever would have thought a Goat would one day participate in the country's premier horse race? Bad jokes aside, Goat has had the last laugh with a string of decent performances, winning the Gold Circle Oaks of her year and running a respectable third in this year's Betting World 1900. It still leaves her well short of what's required in this sort of field, though, and she looks to be an optimistic entry here.

taken from: SAhorseracing.com