This year's Vodacom Durban July, with so many good horse in the line up, will probably yield a candidate for the unwanted tag "best horse to never win the July."
In 1987 the great Model Man ran a race that makes him a leading candidate for this tag.
The winner Bush Telegraph went into the race unbeaten and as a three time Grade 1 winner.
He had won the Grade 1 Smirnoff (Gold Medallion) and the Grade 1 Administrator's Champion Juvenile (Golden Horseshoe) as a two-year-old.
As a three-year-old he won the Grade 1 South African 2000 (Daily News 2000) to go into the July as an unbeaten winner of seven with his other wins also including a Grade 3 and a Grade 2.
This year the favourite Irish Flame goes into the race as the winner of the Grade 1 SA Derby, the Grade 1 Daily News 2000 and the Grade 2 Gold Circle Derby.
His merit rating is 113.
Bush Telegraph's merit rating might have been roundabout the same if that system had been used then, considering his flawless record and that in the SA 2000 he had beaten SA Derby winner Pedometer.
Yet Model Man had to give him a whopping 8kg.
This means that Model Man, in comparison to Bush Telegraph, would effectively have been running off a merit rating of roundabout 125.
Model Man didn't have things go his way in the running and turned for home about seven lengths off the lead.
Bush Telegraph, lying handy, got first run and hit the front at about the 300m mark.
Model Man got going with that huge stride of his and was eating up the ground late on but could only get within 1,25 lengths of him.
The time was a new course and race record.
It was a gallant effort from a brilliant horse whose four-year-old year has seldom been surpassed since.
The highest ever weight carried to victory by a three-year-old is the 54kg carried by Eyeofthetiger in 2006, who came into the race as a four-time winner and without a stakes win to his name.
It should be remembered, though, that he raced in an era when many of the country's best horses were sold or sent to race overseas.
Former Handicapper Colin Buckham rates Pocket Power as the horse to beat this year.
He said of the three-year-olds.
"No three-year-old has ever carried more than 54kg to victory. With the weights going up 2kg Irish Flame would be on the equivalent of 54kg. But there is a big difference between carrying 56kg and 54kg. For a horse like Pocket Power who is used to carrying from 58-60kg, the 2kg raise won't make much difference."
David Thiselton – Gold Circle Publishing
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