Merit Ratings

I don't know much about the subject so i thought i would ask the question from the more learned MR posters around.

On Sunday at clairwood Draconian makes his reappearance. He won on debut as a 2 year old by beating his field by 3.25 lengths. As most of the horses in that race where first timers, how does the handicapper assess a handicap mark of 94??? Surely that is a little high for a horse that has just won its maiden?
As it turns out the form of that race is super strong, but the handicapper cannot "forecast" whether a races form is going to stand up or not? All he can do is assess the winner on merit.

Perhaps there is a different standard by which 2 year olds gets assessed of which i'm not aware?

He may obviously turn out to be a 124 by the end of his 3 year old career but once again judges cannot see into the future, they have to assess on form or a line horse. In this case i'm not sure there was a line horse, no matter ho impressive the winner was?

Like i said though I'm not an MR fundi, I would just like to know.

Tommy,

and imvho its a HUGE problem in SA. How 2 year olds get such high ratings is a crime. They either very good and it does not matter or as is the case most of the time they "peak" at 2 and spend their 3 year old career getting down to the correct level before a resurgence as 4 year olds.

Tommy,

From what I know, the ratings only became 'official' on the 1st of August, and I think in this case some of the horses that ran in that race has already come out to win (perhaps against other horses with more exposed MR's) so his rating could have been arrived at taking this into account. Having said that, imo ratings for 2y olds are more a thumbsuck than an accurate assessment; that is until these 2y olds come out in the following season racing against there elders - when their ratings can be validated and hopefully adjusted. Unfortunately this takes time and these newly turned 3y olds are often stuck with unrealistic high ratings for a while (and as noted by easy, in some cases they could spend their enitire 3y old career to get down to an appropriate rating)

The winner at 94 makes the next 8 runners home very much above the average at this stage. Looks a very brave view to me.
[code:tunvagel]
<span style="font-size: 1smallpx;">============================================================================
FIN HRS AGE MSS BMS WFA LBH MR Change RaceMR

---

1 DRACONIAN 2 57 0.0 17 3.25 0 94 94
2 WATCH THE WEATHER 2 57 0.0 17 3.25 0 86 86
3 PRIZEFIGHTER 2 57 0.0 17 3.50 0 85 85
4 POLAR PRINCE 2 57 0.0 17 3.60 0 85 85
5 CASTLETHORPE 2 57 0.0 17 3.85 0 84 84
6 JOYFUL 2 57 0.0 17 3.90 0 84 84
7 LAND BARON 2 57 0.0 17 4.65 0 82 82
8 SEAL 2 57 0.0 17 4.75 0 82 82
9 SCOTWOOD 2 57 0.0 17 5.25 0 81 81
10 IMPROMPTU 2 57 0.0 17 7.25 0 76 76
11 GENERAL ASSEMBLY 2 57 0.0 17 8.25 0 73 73
12 TEMPLE STAR 2 57 0.0 17 8.50 0 73 73
13 DISH DASH 2 57 0.0 17 9.75 0 70 70
14 DESERT RAT 2 57 0.0 17 10.00 0 69 69
15 DUNRAVEN 2 57 0.0 17 13.25 0 61 61
16 DANGEROUS DESIRE 2 57 0.0 17 26.25 0 28 28
========================================================================</span>====
[/code:tunvagel]

I agree that establishing the 1st MR for horses turning 3 is tricky but if you take Draconian as eg.,although rated at 94,it would run off a net 77 in any handicap at present.
If it turns out that the race is overrated,WFA will soften the blow while the ratings adjust.

Lol @ Rob

Do you mean "Yes, I know your leg has been blown off, but don't worry you have still got the other one".

Gajima,how many horses with a record of 1xrun=1xwin have you ever seen rated less than 77???? so how far out can it be at this stage?

(BTW Douglas Bader would have been delighted to hear that)

Rob, the wfa really is built in to all ratings on a continuous curve and so the net fig is fictional.

If an adult with an IQ of 100 can be expected to read a newspaper, then as a child of 5 when he obviously had the same IQ of 100, he would not be expected to read a newspaper, but it's built in that he will develop the ability.

It's pointless saying a 2yo MR 94 is nett say 80, because another 2yo MR 80 is net 64, and so on.

His 94 rating identifies his as a probable Gr1 runner and should he choose to run in a hcp he would be weighted like a top horse.
He may well be a star, but he drifted from 5/1 to 20/1 that day against a field that had only 2 one time runners in it. Inspired handicapping if the NHA got it right with such an aggressive rating which had to be a guess. I'm in awe.

What two 1 time winners were in the field, and what does the fact that he started at 20/1 have to do with anything? The form is terrific by maiden standards, and he absolutely sh@t in.

magiclips Wrote:

---

> What two 1 time winners were in the field, and
> what does the fact that he started at 20/1 have to
> do with anything? The form is terrific by maiden
> standards, and he absolutely sh@t in.

Winners? I said runners, you must pay attention if you want to have an opinion.

The price observation merely points out the expectation, what else could it mean?

Only 2 horses had run in the race, they finished 7th and 10th. If Draconian ran 94 he gives high ratings to 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th etc etc

What rating did you get him shitting in?

rob faux Wrote:

---

> Gajima,how many horses with a record of
> 1xrun=1xwin have you ever seen rated less than
> 77???? so how far out can it be at this stage?
>
> (BTW Douglas Bader would have been delighted to
> hear that)


Rob, I have owned enough horses in my time, including several first time winners, to appreciate that the MR of a first time winner is haphazard at best. However, what I do know is that the handicapper is quick to hand out fabulous MR's but slow to drop them down subsequently as he will state that a good horse never loses its ability.

Perhaps if you re-read my comments through this filter you will understand where I am coming from.

Jack,the point,as I understand it,of this thread,is how to kick off the initial MR of horses as they turn 3. These horses tend to have relativity with each other as they have competed with each other or common formlines,but how those new ratings slot in relative to the existing MR of the older horses is less predictable.It is in this aspect that the net rating becomes relevant
94 may seem high,but a 4yr old with a MR of 94 would have to give Draconian 8 kg- -that is the softening effect that I allude to.That 8kg is anything but fictional,surely.