The RAND will start it's free fall in the next 2 Quaters.
The government will let it slide until it stabilize, then institute the FINANCIAL RAND again.
Many smaller EU, USA racehorse owners will start buying horses for the RSA market.
Once a horse has proved itself, the horse will be relocated to the USA, EU or HONG KONG were bigger stake monies can be earned.
The pound will perhaps trn at R26/1GBP and the Euro at R23/1EURO.
Hence for 10,000GBP, an invesor would be able to buy a R260,000 horse in RSA.
The South African BANKS cannot comply with the new BASEL III regulations which must be implemented by 2012.
The first pillar in the BASEL III regulations (only 3 pillars i BASEL) deals with.... EXTRACTED FROM PRAVIN GORDHAN speach below
It has been said South African banks could be short of as much as R600bn if proposed liquidity measures are implemented - and these together with higher capital requirements and levies will lead to lower lending in an economy desperate to grow its infrastructure.
THE R600BN is calculated as the incrase from 6% to 8% in capital holding requirements.
Hence 1% must then be R300BN.
The inverse then says that the banks have lend out R300BN x 100 = R30,000BN.
No wonder RSA and our banks have been down graded on their credit ratings.
Are we one notch away from "JUNK BOND" status......
RSA is a member of the BASEL committee .... see details at the bottom.
think this was in MARCH 2010 or shortly thereafter...
Pretoria - Minister of Finance Pravin Gordhan has shown government's hand on the contentious issue of a proposed global banking tax and higher liquidity requirements, saying South Africa will not support a uniform levy across the world or measures that are unfriendly to some countries.
Speaking in Pretoria ahead of a key G20 meeting in Toronto this weekend, Gordhan said the meeting is a crucial one as global responses to the financial crisis have become less coordinated, with individual interests starting to dominate again. On what will likely be a heated debate around currencies, he said the key was to ensure balance in the currency market.
Gordhan said South Africa had raised the banking issues with the financial stability board and has requested an appropriate system which provides country-friendly measures within the global framework.
It has been said South African banks could be short of as much as R600bn if proposed liquidity measures are implemented - and these together with higher capital requirements and levies will lead to lower lending in an economy desperate to grow its infrastructure.
Gordhan said South Africa should not be punished as the country did not create, cause or deepen the financial crisis.
"SA will be encouraging everyone to work together to move to a cohesive framework," he said.
Gordhan added South Africa and Canada were not in favour of a global banking tax as their systems were stable. A proposed bank levy need not be uniform, but there could certainly be levels of cooperation in other areas.
On the currency debate, he said while certain players are saying they did not want their currencies to appreciate too much or become too volatile or uncompetitive, this was true for everyone. The key would be to come to a coordinated pact and ensure all currencies are at levels allowing each country to be competitive on a global scale.
"We must find win-win formulae that satisfy everyone and not just some people," he said.
Gordhan feels the 2010 FIFA World Cup will help bring Africa to the fore on the global stage, with the ability to host this event improving confidence. But he added that fiscal consolidation is key and a balanced approach to fiscal spending must still ensure the growth-friendly elements of any global plans are not sacrificed.
Gordhan noted SA's unemployment stats released on Tuesday "are depressing to say the least" - they showed the country added to the 870 000 formal and non-formal sector jobs lost in 2009 by another 79 000 formal jobs in the first quarter.
"The level of job creation must improve phenomenally," he said, pointing out that the problem of 75% of young people being without jobs was serious. Gordhan said harder work is called for by all stakeholders to help improve the situation.
"Job creation and poverty alleviation must be at the centre of discussions - it will be one of the key challenges at the G20," he said.
RSA A MEMBER OF BASEL.
The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision provides a forum for regular cooperation on banking supervisory matters. Its objective is to enhance understanding of key supervisory issues and improve the quality of banking supervision worldwide. It seeks to do so by exchanging information on national supervisory issues, approaches and techniques, with a view to promoting common understanding. At times, the Committee uses this common understanding to develop guidelines and supervisory standards in areas where they are considered desirable. In this regard, the Committee is best known for its international standards on capital adequacy; the Core Principles for Effective Banking Supervision; and the Concordat on cross-border banking supervision.
The Committee's members come from Argentina, Australia, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, Hong Kong SAR, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Korea, Luxembourg, Mexico, the Netherlands, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the United Kingdom and the United States. The present Chairman of the Committee is Mr Nout Wellink, President of the Netherlands Bank.
The Committee encourages contacts and cooperation among its members and other banking supervisory authorities. It circulates to supervisors throughout the world both published and unpublished papers providing guidance on banking supervisory matters. Contacts have been further strengthened by an International Conference of Banking Supervisors (ICBS) which takes place every two years.
The Committee's Secretariat is located at the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland, and is staffed mainly by professional supervisors on temporary secondment from member institutions. In addition to undertaking the secretarial work for the Committee and its many expert sub-committees, it stands ready to give advice to supervisory authorities in all countries. Mr Stefan Walter is the Secretary General of the Basel Committee.
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