Turffontein Saturday

@TH:

Class will always tell; agree on PJ . As a tentative hedge...Ecohawk.

I KNOW MANY DO NOT LIKE TO GET INVOLVED IN WORK RIDER RACES (ALSO SAND RACING BY POSTED COMMENTS HERE). I FIND BOTH EXCITING AND CHALLENGING.

IN RACE 3 THERE ARE A NUMBER OF RUNNERS FROM STABLES THAT DO WELL IN SUCH RACES : NOS. 4-8-9-10-12-14. HAVING MADE THE SELECTIONS ( 1/3rd OF THE CHALLENGE) THE BET FOR ME (ANOTHER 1/3rd) IS A FIRSTLY A QUARTET - DBL FLOAT 12+14 with 4-8-9-10, FOLLOWED BY A SWINGER BOXING 8-12-14.

SO WHERE IS THE FAVOURITE IN THIS RACE - WELL JAS DOES NOT HAVE A GOOD RECORD IN THESE RACES (2x3rds AND 1x4th FROM 15 RUNNERS),
HOWEVER WITH CONVENTIONAL FORM ANALYSIS HE IS VERY CONSISTENT AND A 'WORTHY FAVOURITE, THEREFORE FOR THOSE WHO ARE NOT RISK TAKERS INCLUDE HIM AS THE 5th SELECTION IN THE QUARTET AFTER THE OTHER 4 - THIS MAKES A 240 PERM INSTEAD OF 144 PERMS.

ON BEATABLE FAVOURITE (OVER 60%) I THINK THE FIRST 3 AND THE LAST ONE ARE BEATABLE,NAMELY :-
RACE 1 - 6 BERMUDA TRIANGLE - COMPETITIVE RACE, NEWCOMERS ??? AND TRAINER NOT IN PARTICULARLY GOOD FORM
RACE 2 - SOUL SISTER - TRAINER OUT OF FORM, TAKES SAND FORM BACK TO TURF.
RACE 3 - 1 LIBERTY EAGLE - AS STATED ABOVE AND POOR DRAW.

The card looks like a nightmare, with horses coming back from lay-offs wherever you look. I think Approachable has done enough to go close in that field and is a slightly tentative best of the day. Golden Scold can go well back on the grass, but as for the Features, even I was a punter I wouldn't go near them with stolen Monopoly money. They'll be great to watch, but fall strictly into the keep-money-in-pocket bracket.

Echohawk scratched now, Umlilo.

@Sabre:

Now what?

At one time, I recollect that the stable expected big things from Aluminium; might be the next best night.mare? (Oops! she's a gelding!)

Uncle Ormie to cleanup today

Think Havasha has a bit of class as well Tommy ...at 7/1 a decent E/W

Umlilo, I'm thinking Captain Scott might be the value bet, with Exclaim 'N 'Exclude the one to beat.

Interesting racing, but I agree that is a very tough card for punters; some thoughts (usual disclaimers apply):

R3: Probably the most straight forward race on the card; Liberty Eagle the obvious one, but drawn wide; money for DG's Boy and the stable has struck form, so is the obvious danger; include Conviction in larger quartets
R4: Seemingly not much between the 3 3 yr olds, but all of them come back from lay-offs; Pleasing Request from an in-form stable could improve this trip and could trouble the younger horses if they are not 100% tuned
R5: Competitive handicap; Jet Flyer may improve over this trip, but all of the others have some sort of chance
R6: Eddington finished in front of Lion's Blood last time they met and could surprise; Knight's Inlet on the upgrade and is proven over this trip, while Houston Trip has a big reputation, so should feature if he stays (but no value for me at his current odds)
R7: Pierre Jourdan has the class and should be right there even if needing the run; Exclaim & Exclude is probably the fittest horse in the race and should feature if effective over the slightly longer trip; roughies to consider for trifectas and quartets are Rudra (but why steels?) and Captain Scott - who is a winner over this trip
R8: Today will show how good Igugu is (or is not); Autumn Gold and Alderry have the best exposed form but the draw is a negative for Autumn Gold; Tree of Perfection has won twice over this trip and together with Miss Turbulence could make the trifecta and quartet pay and the other 2 3 yr olds are rated better than Igugu by the handicapper, so must be included
R9: Nightmare race to close; Battlestar Express has the best draw and has won over the trip; Strike Paradise also course suited and should be right there depsite a wide draw; while Hurricane Force could surprise if ready after a rest - load up

Considering most horses will be needing the run,think ILLAD huge runner in tht race.

what an awful ride by delpech on lions blood, there was absolutely no need, to push him to the front

Saldiani,i would say the opposite,just opinions!