THE RULEBOOK: What to look for picking a horse

1) Price up the race yourself. If a horse opens shorter then there is no value, if a horse opens at a bigger price then there could be value.
2) Don't bet in every race. Go through the card and pick out 1 or 2 horses you really fancy on the day and have a decent bet. Quite often I really fancy 2 horses on a particular card both win but I end up losing money on the day because I back other horses that I don't fancy that strongly.
3) If you have studied our form and you are happy with the horses you have chosen don't listen to everyone who's uncle's, friends, sisters, boyfriend works for the yard and they really fancy XYZ, stick to what you have picked, most trainers will give their horses a chance in all races.
4) Bet with your head not your heart, if a horse managed to get you a big win before it doesn't mean it will do it for you again, look at every horse in every race objectively with no favoritism.
5) Look for alumite and blinker strikes.

shrek Wrote:

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> 1) Price up the race yourself. If a horse opens
> shorter then there is no value, if a horse opens
> at a bigger price then there could be value.
> 2) Don't bet in every race. Go through the card
> and pick out 1 or 2 horses you really fancy on the
> day and have a decent bet. Quite often I really
> fancy 2 horses on a particular card both win but I
> end up losing money on the day because I back
> other horses that I don't fancy that strongly.
> 3) If you have studied our form and you are happy
> with the horses you have chosen don't listen to
> everyone who's uncle's, friends, sisters,
> boyfriend works for the yard and they really fancy
> XYZ, stick to what you have picked, most trainers
> will give their horses a chance in all races.
> 4) Bet with your head not your heart, if a horse
> managed to get you a big win before it doesn't
> mean it will do it for you again, look at every
> horse in every race objectively with no
> favoritism.
> 5) Look for alumite and blinker strikes.

Spot on especially Point 1 .

The winning horse will have the best time over the distance in any race. Therefore first look at times over smimilar distances, then look at at colateral form, then factor in suitability of distance, going and track. You will gave to trust that the horse is a tryer. In most races IMVHO there are too many variables to have a computer program decide the winner. Look at FORMSTAR who attempt to do this, and they are not doing. Without inside info (having a horse in a stable) wrt the well being of a horse I think one should only consider equal form i.e. times and co.-lateral and keep a open mind.

beaten favourites must come and win sometime just follow them.take horses that come from a rest.,who 's been geld and 1st time blinkers they improve.

- check if the horse is geld or using blinkers for the 1st time
- the horse should run in a race thats the same distance, increases or decrease by 200m from it's last race it ran
- should be well drawn
- speed rating or the time it ran it's last race
- jockeys that are confident riders, the top 5 jockeys at that specific course
- horses that have been rested avoid
- avoid juvenile and handicap races
- look at collateral form whereby filles perform better than colts in maiden races. The next race it enters is only a fillies and mares maiden plate.
- the last race the horse ran was a close 2nd and the 3rd horse was 4 lenghts behind the 2nd horse
- track conditions especially the wind factor in P.E. & Cape Town (head wind favours horse that comes from off the pace, tail wind front runners)
- wet or soft tracks favours horses that are front runners or run handy (horse that run from the back of the field find it difficult to make up ground)
- look at the race and predict which horses will be setting the pace, will horse will be running handy and those that will come from the back of the field - how will the pace effect your chosen horse
- watch the horses canter down to the starting stalls (very important) thereafter place your bet
-avoid exotic bets except the PA

-

Some very good suggestions to include in the 'rule book' (which is soon going to turn into quite a hefty publication) and a few that I would like to debate:

Speed ratings or times:
These differ too much from venue to venue imo and is of little use to me (plus I doubt the accuracy of them anyway); at most they can be used as guidelines over sprints; over more ground the times depend on the pace of the race

Avoid juvenile races or handicaps:
So stick to maidens and the few condition plates - might as well abstain totally?

Price
Should only be a factor in finding 'value' - if you think the horse should be 2/1 and it is priced up a 1/1, leave it alone; if you think a horse should be 5/10 and it is priced up at 1/1, go for it.

Dont take tips from jockeys or trainers

Speed ratings or times:

Greyville
Date Race Name MR Wgh A/S Dr Finish Lenghts Time Dist
21-05-2010  3  PARAGUAYITO (ARG) * 58 3 g 7 1 0 85.19 1400
21-05-2010  6  POCKET POWER 120 62 7 g 3 1 0.84 85.35 1400
21-05-2010  6  GOLDEN CHARIOT 98 59 5 g 6 2 1.58 85.49 1400
21-05-2010  3  HORS D'OEUVRE * 58 3 c 6 2 1.74 85.52 1400
21-05-2010  6  KEAT'S DRIFT 100 61 6 g 4 3 2.32 85.63 1400
21-05-2010  3  ALAN'S PRIDE 69 58 3 g 1 3 3.68 85.89 1400
21-05-2010  6  BULSARA 107 61 3 g 7 4 3.79 85.91 1400
21-05-2010  6  LION IN WINTER 99 59 3 c 2 5 4.05 85.96 1400
21-05-2010  6  EIGHT STREET (AUS) 108 61 5 g 1 6 4.79 86.1 1400
21-05-2010  3  BIG BEN 58 58 6 g 9 4 5.68 86.27 1400
21-05-2010  3  THOMAS STAR 65 58 4 c 8 5 5.84 86.3 1400

These horses ran on the same day, at the same course and the same weather conditions. PARAGUAYITO run in a maiden plate and the time was faster Pocket Power. The next time PARAGUAYITO ran I backed it big time.I made a healthy profit.

Avoid juvenile races or handicaps:
I generally stick to maiden races, I tend to have a good strike rate and there are less variables to consider as opposed to handicaps.
Based on my criteria I tend to find either 2 or 3 horses I can back a week. I only take win or place bets.
My bookies hates me.
I have some jockeys as my friends and their tips are generally crap.

Tero,

Everyone has their own way of finding winners and everyone has their own 'rule book' (and that is why I say that a 'one-size-fits-all rule book' is impractical); if your way is working for you, then stick to it - and well done if you can stick to 2 or 3 bets per week.

For me personally, I still don't buy the 'time' thing; yes it is clear from your example that it can work in certain cases; however I would argue that most form students could have picked Paraguayito (who ran in a handicap when you backed it) as the horse he beat in the maidens (Hors D'Oervre) came out and won his own maiden by more than 4 lenghts before Paraguayito's next race.

I totally agree about following 'stable info' (jockey, trainer, assistant head groom, hanger-around - whatever); this will lead you to the poor house very quickly; in any given race most of the 'stable' will believe that their horse has a 'chance'; info that could in some cases be useful, is whether a horse has been rested because of a problem/injury, or because of a lack of suitable races, and whether the horse is likely to need the run (not foolproof either) or not. Or when they think that a horse needs ground and runs him around the turn and then he doesn't take the turn - watch when he runs over the Vaal straight next time - small things like that (or a tongue tie to address a breathing problem, etc. etc) can result in dramatic improvement.

Totally agree Frodo we all have our own methods of finding winners that is what makes this sport interesting.
I am always re-evaluating and refining my methods of selecting horses.
I appreciate your comments.

I feel that prior to previewing ‘key qualities to look for when making your selections…’ some of the main elements should be addressed. In order of importance (for me anyway) they are :-

Attitude – values and beliefs with and around horseplaying, honesty with self and others etc.
Technical Analysis – value, optimum betting-possibilities and probabilities, money management.
Fundamental Analysis – selection criteria aligned with ‘personal’ comfort zones.

My thoughts are as follows :-
Attitude - horseplaying is an incredibly pleasurable pursuit for me. I find it challenging, stimulating and frustrating, and often disappointing. I consider it a worthwhile and honourable pursuit for all who are passionate about it, yet I have concerns for those who may/do loose emotional control with it. I am open with friends and family about wins and losses and maintain a balanced approach with betting. I stand in the possibility that I shall win, yet I am aware of the probability that I am more likely to loose. I seek mastery of this my foremost ‘hobby’, and whilst the short-term competition is with ‘you guys’ (albeit through market agents) the main competition is with myself. I am willing to spend hundreds of hours with ‘analysis’ in the hope for ‘better betting’ with my investments. I believe I need an ‘edge’ in my endeavours to be successful and overcome the market take out. Pleasure is the name of the game, and it is often more pleasurable when profitable. However, I enjoy the process not just the end result.

Technical Analysis deserves the same amount of input as Fundamental Analysis – they are interwoven.
I need to maximise my ‘thrill factor’ and minimise my ‘regret factor’ and for me that normally involves quartet perms with a few big priced contenders. My betting records (YOU DO HAVE YOUR OWN, DON’T YOU ???) show that a winning year is often down to a few decent hits, last year was a +R32 000 quartet and the year before a +R30 000 PA (%’s only mind you). My betting strategy (and expectations) are geared around such results – to manage it I need to measure it, not just monies into and out of betting accounts, but even down to most successful courses, classes and distances. As a Quartet player (normally double float with 4 others = 144 perms) I have learnt patience (ave 8 returns per 100 bets), many thrills and far more ‘almost’ than ‘hits’, yet I feel really smart when it comes-off , and I like that feeling. I no longer say ‘I should have played the trifecta or exacta’ because betting records tell me what is good for me. Sure it’s a lot of time, and I spend far more time on reviews than previews. (A 10/1 placed horse will pay 33% more in a swinger with the tote favourite than in a straight place bet – and that DOES take into account the times the TF does not make the first 3 – based on over 1000 samples, exercise started in SAFTOTE Champion Punter days when they changed the betting options to include swingers.) A lot of work for a quartet player who is not particularly ‘thrilled’ with swingers. Yet one needs to keep moving, there are always more questions than answers, such answers need to be as scientific as possible yet still allow room for intuition, even fate and coincidence – all horseplayers know how some horses jump off the page at you yet they are formless no hopers…until the race!

Selection criteria is a fundamental analysis which is very personal, sometimes inherent in ones being. In-spite of a strong awareness around ‘favourite versus longshot bias’ theory (and practise), my immediate action in any race is to look for the ‘surprise package’, at good odds (+ 10/1), that can run in the first 4. It comes naturally to me, whilst selecting solid contenders for the win box is tiresome and troublesome. A current exercise involving Pick 3 betting has taken me over 300 hours to date and I initially figured it would be 100 hours tops – it just feels alien to me, outside my comfort zone!

Information is just bits of data.
Knowledge is putting them together. Ram Dass, from One-Liners.
Wisdom is transcending them.

Whatever you do will be insignificant, but it is very important that you do it…Mahatma Gandhi.

Wow! Nice post happy horseplayer. (tu)