Do times make a difference to your selections?

Hi Clan,

Many people compare race times when they do not have collateral form or other formlines to go on. A good example here would be that of Igugu's times to those of the 3yr old colts race times this year, both at Turffontein and at Greyville. What is your opinion of race times when making your picks? IMO times make no difference over a mile and up. Simply because each race is different and the pace of the race in each race is different....BUT, that is just my opinion, what do you think? (Magic...pls give us your opinion)

Cheers

I strongly believe in race times though i prefer speed rating as opposed to raw times. if one horse can run 1000m in 58 seconds and the other takes 60 seconds to do the same to me it is obvious whose faster. obviously there are many factors that affect the outcome of a race but time is my primary factor.

Imo if times are to be taken seriously then one should look at all the factors that influence times .Those are headwinds , tail winds and track conditions and more . I find comparing times on the same day to be very usefull.

antsinner Wrote:

---

> Imo if times are to be taken seriously then one
> should look at all the factors that influence
> times .Those are headwinds , tail winds and track
> conditions and more . I find comparing times on
> the same day to be very usefull.


Yip, got to agree - also the times in SA are not always accurate - at most I will use it as a guideline over sprinting trips - over 1400 up I think the factors that ant mentions as well as the pace of the race makes comparing times almost meaningless - imo

Syd Laird: ''if your'e interested in time then you must be in jail''.

How many course records do POCKET POWER/BOLD SILVANO/IGUGU/WHAT A WINTER ,hold?

none ...it was soft whan igugu won the oaks and the classic !!!

400 to finish times in same race

I like 400 to finish times..anything under 23 sec good especially if race is run at a good pace..times can be misleading in races over 1200m as they are a consequence of pace set normally

But then as you say..how accurate are the times we are given..esp when a racecourse only finds out a few minutes before the 1st that the lights have been stolen or maybe broken or who knows or cares...

Times converted into speed ratings are valuable on sand (all classes), yet on turf are best in maiden races and lower class events. However, there is a lot of work in producing meaningful speed ratings.

1. Develop standard times for each class and distance, and other parameters such as points per second and points per length for each distance, & a rating scale.
2. Calculate race day course variations (actual times versus standard times) and process raw speed ratings.
3. Balance speed ratings for each race/horse…compare previous speed ratings per horse with those raw figures from this race day. (On many race days a lower class race produces faster times than the subsequent higher class race over the same distance).

As the above are ‘variables’ and subject to personal interpretations different speed ratings by different ‘handicappers’, for the same race can often apply. Other ‘quirks’ include horses who achieve improved speed ratings in a higher class race (even when running down the field) yet revert to lower/normal figures when back in their own class, so this can be deceptive. Usually the time for the first race at each Vaal Sand meeting is ‘faster’ than the days course variation/s.

There is a lot of enjoyment in producing your own speed figures. It is certainly a valuable tool in the right circumstances and should answer – how fast each horse is capable of racing. Meanwhile class, form, draw, etc have also to be evaluated…and all before deciding whether there is value… and a betting proposition.

Oops the ‘moonlight’ posting is actually from me …we share the same computer, house, cat etc. She is certainly not that interested in speed ratings…more of a ‘Fate, Coincidence, and the Outcome of Horse Races’ (Armando Benitez) sought of a girl!

Regarding times for the last 400m…again a useful tool yet not real time (estimated or timed from replays?) as we do not have sectional timing. The track conditions, draw, pace of the race and running styles influence this factor and again can be deceiving.

However, all figure ratings should be able to identify the main contenders in a race.

There are many good books on speed ratings. Figure Handicapping by James Quinn…a practical guide to the interpretation and use of speed and pace figures is good, yet very ‘American’. Nick Mordin (Mordin On Time) has a couple of books on it which are more ‘RSA/UK turf’ but makes it seem oh so easy and a replica of the American ‘works’. There is of course Andrew Beyer (Beyer On Speed).

we share the same computer, house, cat etc.

should that not read mouse? ...............()