I really don’t have much of a feel for this year’s July which I believe is wide open, but here goes anyway.
I stuck my neck out months ago and said that IGUGU wouldn’t run a place in the July and I’ll stand by that despite the flak I will undoubtedly get if she wins.
I also can’t have the form of the Daily News as far as finding the July winner is concerned. They finished in a heap with the 10th place horse Empenoso Henn beaten only 3,25L. With Black Wing 4th, who has never won any race of substance, Gold Onyx 5th, who has run one place in a year and that in a 4 horse race and Wealthy and Wise 6th, who raced off a MR79, I have grave reservations about the form holding up. Incidentally, Igugu ran a time in the Woolavington 1,41 seconds slower than the colts in the Daily News.
So for me I’ve narrowed it down to 5 possible winners in no particular order.
1. BRAVURA – has had a great prep and although he would probably prefer a more galloping course like Kenilworth or Clairwood, he seems sure to run well and looks the horse to beat. Bravura, Bulsara, Castlethorpe and Super Storm are the best handicapped horses in the race having all gone up 3lbs in the weights after the Gold Challenge and Cup Trial respectively, but receiving no penalty for the July as the weights were already published.
2. GALILEO’S DESTINY – excellent first run for champion trainer – looked like plenty of improvement to come and one of only two 3yo’s that I’m considering as a possible winner – will run a big race
3. SUPER STORM – must admit that even though he had to win the Cup Trial to qualify, the 100/1 on offer was very tasty bearing in mind how well handicapped he is on his Met run. He certainly doesn’t represent the same value now, but he can’t be left out of the equation and Mike Bass before the Cup Trial, referred to him as his “Dunford” of the July.
4. PIERRE JOURDAN – two good prep runs and top draw and pilot. His form is obviously all in Gauteng which is a concern, but he may well have the class.
5. CASTLETHORPE – will he stay? I don’t know, but if he does and Karis Teetan holds him up for a run and gives him a chance in running and doesn’t’ panic, he can definitely win. His dam is closely related to New Approach who won the Epsom Derby for Jim Bolger so there is plenty of stamina on the dams side. A lot of use has been made of him in races through force of circumstance, but he really doesn’t have to race that way. He switches off extremely well and has I believe the best turn of foot in the race. Considering how out at the weights he was and that he made his move at the top of the straight in the Gold Challenge, I though his run was excellent. He has come on from the run and will be cherry ripe on the day. Just hope his stamina holds ‘cause he definitely has the class.
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