Handicapping 101: Picking winners in Maiden Races.

I've read somewhere that maiden horses that came second or third in their last race, win more than their percentage of races due to them. The challenge is that they are often overbet. What to do? What do you guys look for in maiden races?

Today's first race is a good example, it has one runner in it that came second or third last time out, Muscle Man. It has Marcus riding it, has the highest merit rating and speed rating in a week field. Currently you can get 7/10. Gee thanks bookies. Muscle man is only two merit rating points higher than the next horse. In the sporting post it does not even have the best ability rating of this lot. So the bookies believe this horse has a better chance of winning this than Igugu had at 22/10 of winning the July. It must be a sure thing then...

2 merit points difference between horses - add MARCUS factor and ability rating should increase by a length or two (or more...) Which was done by the bookies And race result proved this correct

Odds of SP ....?