BETTER BETTING - STAKING PLANS

BETTER BETTING – STAKING PLANS (WIN BETS)



A SUMMARY OF A STUDIED ‘POSITIVE’ APPROACH


Disappointed and frustrated with the lack of profit from good selections triggered the quest for a better approach.
The Task…to explore the performance of those selections within specified betting strategies and staking plans.
The Objective…to implement profitable staking plans (with current selection methods).

The following plans, were reviewed and tested, each with an allocated bank of R200 (plus a ‘reserve’) –

1. BB+SR = THE BASIC BET plus the SQUARE ROOT of PROFITS (James Selvidge)
BB+SR is relatively simple to apply…assuming that our basic bet is R10 and our first selection wins at 16/10, the stake for our second bet is R10 (BB ) + R4 (SR - the square root of the R16 won on our first selection) = R14. The square root of the profit applies straight after any winning bet.

2. STAKING 5% OF OUR ALLOCATED BANK
A traditional ‘Kelly type’ plan, where the stake on our first selection is R10 (5% of R200). The bet on our 16/10 winner moves our bank up to R216. The stake on our next selection is 5% of R216 = R11 (10.80 rounded up).
A minimum stake of R10 is adopted when applicable (the bank goes below R200).

3. STAKING TO WIN 20% OF OUR ALLOCATED BANK
The stake must be sufficient to win 20% of our bank.
Therefore our initial bet of R40/25 on our 16/10 winner then increases our bank to R240.
The target for our next bet is to win R48 (20% of R240).

4. STAKING ‘OUR’ % ADVANTAGE OF OUR ALLOCATED BANK
OUR % advantage is bet in the same manner as in item 2 above. Therefore, if our advantage is 15% we bet R30 (15% of R200). The 16/10 winner moves our bank up to R248. The stake on our next selection is 15% of R248 = R37.

OUR % advantage is calculated as follows…
WIN % (the percentage of winners achieved from all our selections/bets), MINUS the LOSS %, DIVIDED BY the average odds of our winners, hence
OUR % ADVANTAGE is 41% (15 winners from 36 selections) - (59% loss divided by 2.3/1 odds = 26%), hence
41% - 26% = 15% advantage.

5. DUO WINS (Howard Sartin)…[Dutching to some?].
Popularised from his group rehab work with truck drivers who experienced gambling problems. The process involved betting two horses to win, in the same race, and throw a profit. Various staking %’s were applied before settling on a stake of 15% of the bank, with 40% of that stake placed on the lower priced selection and 60% on the higher priced one.

An adaptation of this, discussed further below, 15% of the bank is staked (R30), with 60% (R18) of that on the selection with the higher % advantage, and the 40% (R12) on the other selection.


SELECTIONS must obviously display a potential for profit.
All referenced selections are from postings, on abc, submitted on the 17 Vaal Sand race meetings during the 6month period from 3rd March to 27th August 2011. They were derived, primarily, from speed ratings and include top rated, 2nd top rated and ‘value’ selections. During the study certain positive results from ‘superior’ top rated selections were identified and are now named ‘3 Star Selections’ (the pennies seem to take longer to drop these days).



NB. Starting price odds have been used throughout these exercises and betting tax has NOT been applied.
The ‘2nd Top Rated’ and ‘Value Selections’ returns have been boosted by some long shot winners. Whilst factual, such ‘fortune’ may not be repeatable, consequently for any +20/1 winner the TAB win dividends have been used if they are less than the SP.

At this stage there are 4 selection categories and 5 staking plans.

The 3 Star Selections had the most positive advantage, 15%, and was processed first. The 36 selections began with National Network on 3rd March and finished with Spanish Angel on 27th August, (other category selections as per postings). The 3rd staking plan, TO WIN 20% OF OUR R200 BANK, finished with a negative balance and was thrown-out. The results of those processed read –




HIGH = Highest profit recorded during the period.
LOW = Lowest loss recorded during the period.
FINAL = Final figure at the end of the 6 month testing period (27th August 2011).

Many interpretations and conclusions can be made (each to their own), here are a few (albeit obvious) –
Good staking plans CAN NOT turn poor selections into profitable investments.
Good staking plans CAN maximise profits and minimise losses.

The BB+SR, 5% and % Advantage all outperform level stake plays and handle the inevitable long losing sequence.
A bank reserve would have been needed for any minus figure exceeding R200 (-R339 +R200 = by R139..,worst case)


DUO WINS is a tough road to walk, not for the faint hearted. Betting the 2 top rated it took over 90 races before showing a profit with 5 out 9 wins on consecutive race meetings 28 June, 7-12-26 July…that’s about what is needed throughout! Whilst finishing with a small profit at the end of the 6 months a – R518 figure was experienced in the process. The average SP of the winners was 16/10 (derived from the returns from both stakes when a winner was achieved), and the longest losing sequences were 8-7-7. Similar results applied with the top rated and value selection combinations…not for me at this stage!


Predicting outcomes from historical information may be considered risky, yet what else do we have?
Should the selection process be much the same and the staking plan applied correctly then the results should be ‘typical’.

Happy with my own discoveries, and cautiously optimistic about current applications (notwithstanding beliefs that ‘annual’ profits are usually derived from a few big payouts in the year). The implementation of appropriate staking plans for win bets alongside ‘high risk’ wagers (quartets, PA’s, P6,JP’s etc) may well prove to be a profitable combination.

Hoping that the examples of these exercises shall stimulate your awareness around your own betting, and encourage you to make your own discoveries leading to better betting and more enjoyable horseplaying.

Given up trying to centralise figures !!!
Fed up and pissed off!!

Not sure why you should be 'fed up' and what you mean by 'centralise figures'; seems to me your results revealed the 3 'best' staking plans (and they 'outperform level stakes plays') - these staking plans can be applied to one's personal selections (and no one will ever have the same selections - the beauty of the game imo) - to optimize profit.

Well done and thank you for sharing.

Fixed it for you HH nice post

HH.... thanks for the post....(tu)

The Kelly Criteria is also worth a look for those interested in optimal betting. Google it.

HH nice post,bt to be honest i didnt read through all of it...got lost sumwhere alng the middle(maybe im just stupid).but u are making horseracing sound like an MaTHEMATICAL PROBLEM.and its actually quite easy...DID U KNOW 80% OF DAILY RACES ARE WON WITH THE 1ST 4 HORSES IN BETTING?

heinrich,

That's also good to know - do you have any proof that '80% are won by the 1st 4 favorites'? If you did read properly, you would have realized that the post mainly concerns 'staking plans' - how much should one wager on your selections - it does not address how one should arrive at these selections

Hibs, Many thanks for fixing it.

u can use todays results as an example frodo

Heinrich,so if you backed one of the top 4(in the betting) in every race ,it is probable that the very best strike rate you are likely to achieve is 25% of 80%........... ie. 20%
That is not exactly the Holy Grail because you could,of course,just back the favourite and achieve the internationaly accepted strike rate of 30-33%.

@ROB what i meant is that it could be used as a guideline...i take the first 4 in the betting then use my system to find which 1 i think will win.i also use that to find my value bets.it works wonders to determine 'false' favourites aswell