Cape Guineas

My 5c worth:

1. A great piece of tactical planning from the Joey Ramsden team, with Variety Club tracking The Balladeer, who was a pacemaker but who set a steadily increasing tempo instead of blasting off at a million miles an hour. Variety Club may well have been the best horse on the day, but he got first run on Silver Flyer and Gimmethegreenligh, both of whom would have needed wings to win the way the race turned out,

2. Princess Victoria may only just stay an easy mile. Interestingly, Sean Cormack thought she was more or less at the end of her tether when she won the Fillies Guineas and personally I won't be rushing to label her a good thing for any 2000m races next year.

3. Divine Jet had it all to do from his wide draw the way the race was run, but at the end of the day he has still prove that he is anywhere near as good as his reputation. And, like Karl said, he could be better up to 1400m and (if he's got the class) may be more of another What A Winter than, say, another Dynasty.

4. I hope they take the plunge and run Variety Club in the Queen's Plate. He ran to about a 116 or 117 in the Guineas using Silver Flyer as a line horse, and with a nice 3yo WFA allowance that could be plenty good enough to make him competitive against the best older milers around. I don't see him as a Derby horse.

Magic would you say Silver Flyer is a Derby horse?

Would WAW be a serious queens plate runner?mike bass suggested if he gets a good draw he ll go for the queens plate

gregbucks Wrote:

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> Magic would you say Silver Flyer is a Derby horse?

Yebbo yes.

What A Winter in the Queen's Plate.....interesting. It has been exactly one year (the Cape Guineas) since he last went 1600m and he is entitled to be a stronger horse now. In any case he won the Selamgor last year, which may have been a bit slow-run but at least he has won over the distance. He was super impressive yesterday and if he can switch off and quicken over 1600m the way he can over 1200m then he has the class to be a real Queen's Plate horse. But I still suspect he's better up to 1400m.

I agree with Magic as per VC and the Queens Plate if he draws well and Joey can blast the pace like he did yesterday he is a big runner.....VC was the sales topper at the last Equimark Vintage 2010 sale at R425K....thought it was a bit steep at the time.....now he looks to have been a bargain buy....

Great summation Magic.

I've given up putting limits on this Var colt, Variety Club. He looked the horse to beat and then did it in style.

I'm not a big race times fan, horses here run oblivious to achieving any sort of time and just hunt each other in races. Having said that, the earlier post of Justanotherputer showed the times of previous Fillies and Colts Guineas' and we see that in the past 5 years the fillies never got under 100 seconds, while the colts always beat 100 seconds.

Variety Clubs time yesterday was 99.60
Palos Verdes in the mile maiden 101.09
Tales Of Bravery open mile was 98.92
Also, the following 6 behind him by 4 lengths to Grafton Street (99.76)

I think we can credit that Variety Club is a proper horse, Princess Victoria is a proper filly, but that this crop will not emulate the great(est crop that was Special Preview et al (imo), or even the Noordhoekflyer-Bravura-Irish Flame-Bold Silvano year (where every feature race in Durban was won by a 3yo, even Safwan who was the only 3yo in his race).

fyi
Empress Club did the Milnerton guineas in 96 something and the Queens Plate in 97.7
Bushmanland did 97.0 into the South Easter and Jet Master at Keniworth Guineas in 98.4 (His 2nd QP was 97 something)

Variety club, pure class, everytime I try to beat him! Always comes on top..
Well done to the connections

I think the race lived up to expectations, and no doubt that Variety Club stepped up a notch or two on his previous performances. Well done to the connections: great tactics by Joey, and another very clever ride by Anton M.. Puts Var into a new category as a stallion, and a great result for Anton S. of Beaumont Stud.
The big question is how to rate these 3yo's. The official handicapper put the ratings of the colts up significantly after the Dingaans and Selangor- I think that he overdid it. For example, by pushing VC up to 110 in the Selangor, you got the weird consequence that the well-beaten Depardieu went up from the mid nineties to 102. (I think VC ran a 106 in the Selangor.) With Variety Club now beating Silver Flyer by 6lb, and a further 5lb back to Gimmethegreenlight, the temptation is to rate VC at 116 as ML has suggested. I think it is more likely that in the Guineas Gimmethegreenlight ran about 101, Silver Flyer 106 and Variety Club 112. Princess Victoria then ran 99. This would seem consistent with the assumption that PV ran below the 105 earned over 1400m, and that Gimmethegreenlight ran below best due to his draw and the way the race was run.
That said, I agree with ML that Variety Club could have a go at the Queen's Plate, since he has the likes of Tales of Bravery (114) to beat there, and it is quite possible that if pushed by that class of horse, he will step up again.

Silver Flyer is a horse to follow -

Yes, rating Variety Club at around 117 would require Silver Flyer to be a genuine 110. I have a slight question mark about that, and the Dingaans form might be a touch overrated, but I still make Variety Club more than a 112.

That's just my take on it, anyway. I haven't applied for the vacant handicappers' position, so I'm just guessing a bit...(

my gut feel tells me that once the classics go over 10F and the further the horses that have raced in jhb will come into own and dominate the races...i think the dingaans lineup this year was stronger than its been for while

Watched that race..thought the draw played a role..fast early pace..pity we dont get fractional times..made it a true 1600m race..some good 1200/1400M who get away with the mile normally were found out..excellent win by VC..will go on to much bigger things!