Queens Plate and Paddock betting

QUEENS PLATE

Ebony Flyer
3/1
Variety Club
3/1
Bravura
7/1
Gibraltar Blue
8/1
Link Man
8/1
Tales Of Bravery
17/2
Chesalon
16/1
Gimmethegreenlight
16/1
Lion In Winter
20/1
Fabiani
33/1
Kiss Again
33/1


PADDOCK STAKES

Igugu
1/5
Beach Beauty
10/1
Emerald Cove
10/1
Super Elegant
20/1
Thunder Dance
20/1
Hollywoodboulevard
33/1
We Three
33/1

 

 

After a couple of sleepless nights and discussions with owners Markus and Ingrid Jooste, Joey Ramsden opted to let his Cape Premier Yearling Sales Guineas winner Variety Club take his chances in the R1 million L’Ormarins Queen’s Plate (Gr 1). The final field of 11 runners was announced on Thursday.

 

To be run over 1600m at Kenilworth on Saturday, January 7, the race, as always, has attracted an exceptional field but most interest is likely to centre on the two three-year-olds in the race, Variety Club and Gimmethegreenlight as well as the two fillies Ebony Flyer and Gibraltar Blue.

 

Variety Club stamped himself as possibly the best three-year-old male in the country when winning the Cape Premier Yearling Sales Guineas where he had the cream of the Western Cape’s sophomores behind him as well as Dingaans winner Silver Flyer, who represented the best of the up-country form.

 

This will be the acid test for Variety Club who meets some very well performed older horses and just how he shapes will give further perspective on how good the current crop of sophomore males may be.

 

Criticism over the handling of Gimmethegreenlight in his recent races eventually led to stable rider Richard Fourie quitting his job with the Justin Snaith yard and Fourie’s place in the saddle will be taken by wily veteran Piere Strydom. Gimmethegreenlight has been a little unlucky in some of his races but is right up there with the best of the three-year-old males.

 

Snaith’s giant filly Ebony Flyer is back for another tilt at the Queen’s Plate after a gallant third behind the seasoned and now retired Mother Russia last year. It was a brave move by her connections to let a three-year-old filly take her chances against most of the country’s leading “milers” so early in the season but she was far from disgraced.

 

Put away for close on nine months and undergoing surgery to relieve a breathing problem, Ebony Flyer came back well enough winning her first two comeback races comfortably before Snaith matched her up against a field of smart sprinters in the Diadem Stakes (Gr 2) WFA.

 

It was the ideal warm-up for the Queen’s Plate where she beat home all except the crack What A Winter so her connections will be more than just hopeful as Ebony Flyer reverts to a more suitable trip.

 

The versatile Gibraltar Blue will strip super fit after two close-up seconds over sprints. She was very game in defeat behind outsider Antious in the Merchants (Gr 2) at Turffontein recently but the former is well regarded and his stable had expected a big run.

 

Gibraltar Blue is likely to prefer this longer trip now and gives Mike de Kock’s two-horse challenge, that includes Grade 1 winning Link Man, a hard edge.

 

Of the older runners, former Investec Cape Derby winner Bravura has found some of his best form since being fitted with blinkers, recently winning the Green Point Stakes while the Vaughan Marshall-trained Tales Of Bravery is a hard knocker who beat the smart filly Emerald Cove at his last start and was a close-up second to Bravura in the Green Point.

 



 

 

The Grade 2 weight for age Graham Beck Memorial Sceptre Stakes for fillies and mares over 1200m at Kenilworth on Monday sees a very competitive line up facing the starter.

 

Justin Snaith has three contestants, the four-year-old Captain Al filly Fragrant Al, the five-year-old National Assembly mare State Blue and the six-year old Captain Al mare Dance With Al.

 

Snaith said, “Fragrant Al is slowly getting back to her best, but is not in top condition yet. However, she has a nice turnaround at the weights with Captain’s Emblem and that will help.”

 

Fragrant Al will be 8kg better off with the Vaughan Marshall-trained Captain’s Emblem for a three length beating over course and distance on December 17.

 

Snaith continued, “State Blue is at her best and has really improved. She gets better with age and will definitely prefer this 1200m trip to the 1000m of last time.”

 

State Blue always produces a strong finish from off the pace and finished just two lengths behind the Equus Champion Sprinter Val De Ra over 1000m at Kenilworth last time at level weights in the Southern Cross Stakes.

 

Snaith said, “Dance With Al has taken a lot of work and is also back to her best. It’s taken two runs to get her right. She is the interesting one in the race.”

 

Dance With Al finished 5,2 lengths back in this season’s Betting World Merchants over course and distance and was 5,5 lengths behind Val De Ra in the weight for age Southern Cross Stakes over 1000m last time.

 

Asked on which of his charges he preferred, Snaith said, “On form it would be State Blue as she is consistently running big races, but Dance With Al will be very competitive if back to her best 1200m form as it must be remembered she has won the Merchants over course and distance before.”

 

He made it a “very open race with good fillies and made Covenant and Trinity House the pair to beat.

 

Mike Bass’s charge Covenant, a four-year-old Western Winter filly, won this race last year by a comfortable 2,25 lengths from Dance With Al.

 

Bass said, “She’s fine and should run well. I haven’t galloped her on the grass since her last race and she can’t work with What A Winter, she’s not in that league, but she is working well on her own. It’s her second run after a rest and she is drawn on the inside. The Snaith fillies and all the Captain Als will be tough to beat, but she has a chance of winning and will at least get a place.”

 

Covenant was 2,5 lengths behind Val De Ra in the Southern Cross Stakes last time and should have improved from that outing.

 

However, Bass said that she is more of a 1200-1400m horse and reckoned 1200m was her best trip.

 

Vaughan Marshall’s four-year-old Captain Al filly Captain’s Emblem won a fillies and mares MR 100 handicap over course and distance last time in facile style, but she is now 5kg under sufferance with the highest rated horse, Fragrant Al.

 

Marshall said, “She is very, very well and I’m very pleased with her progress.”

He said the 1000m had been too sharp for her in two earlier runs and added that the tough Kenilworth 1200m is perfect for her.

 

Yogas Govender runs the lightly raced and progressive four-year-old filly Western Winter filly, Barcelona Winter.

 

He said, “The Diana Stakes and this race were always her aim. She was unfortunate to meet a very good filly in Ebony Flyer in the Diana, but she ran a very good second and had a number of Group fillies behind her. We ran her over 1600m last time just to keep her fitness going and she ran an absolute cracker with a big weight. She is fit and her prep has gone well and she will be spot on. Bernard Fayd’herbe knows her well and is unbeaten on her in two starts over course and distance. It is a quality field and a lot will depend on how well the horses are on the day, but we are pretty pleased with the way everything is going and are expecting a very competitive run. ”

 

Barcelona Winter’s maximum trip is a mile and she might run in the Grade 1 Klawervlei Majorca Stakes over a mile on J&B Met day if she comes through this race well, so she should be perfectly suited to the tough Kenilworth 1200m.

 

Joey Ramsden has an interesting contender in three-year-old Trinity House, who is by Captain Al, and who finished a 1,25 length second in the Grade 1 Avontuur Estate Cape Fillies Guineas to Princess Victoria in her last start.

 

Ramsden said earlier this month that the Sceptre was the only race suitable for her at this time and she would then go for the Majorca.

 

Trinity House was unbeaten in two starts over the Kenilworth 1200m as a two-year-old.

 

Anton Marcus rode her in the Fillies Guineas and said yesterday, “She is above average and very honest, but has a race on her hands, and I think Covenant will be a tough nut to crack.”

 

Ramsden’s other charge Flaming Alice, a four-year-old Captain Al filly, led from start to finish when winning a Novice Plate in her penultimate start comfortably and she looks to have scope for improvement so could be a dark horse.

 

She was beaten 1,15 lengths in a Graduation Plate over course and distance last time, but she was running on strongly from an inside draw in slightly soft going and has a more favourable draw as far as trends go on Monday.     

 

Glen Puller said that Street Runner, who hasn’t run since April, would “need the run and might find it a bit sharp.”

 

The selection is State Blue to beat Covenant with Dance With Al, Barcelona Winter and Flaming Alice next best.          

 

 

Raymond Danielson became the second jockey of 2011 to ride the Jackpot at a Kwazulu-Natal racemeeting, achieving the feat at Greyville Racecourse on Tuesday night, and this is sure to further enhance this rapidly rising star’s profile.

 

Apprentice Athandiwe Mugudlwa rode the Jackpot at Scottsville Racecourse in February this year.

 

Danielson said, “I only had four rides on the night and reckoned I had a chance with all of them. I knew all four rides were in succession and when studying the card I saw that they started with the first leg of the Jackpot, so it was always in my mind to try and ride the Jackpot.”

 

Danielson has had four winners at a meeting before, but never the Jackpot.

 

The first two legs saw him score a quick double for his guv’nor Gavin van Zyl with Red Book, who won at odds of 9-2 upsetting the 5-10 favourite Desert Breeze, and Wild Type, who won a competitive event at odds of 22-10.

 

He then rode a double for Dean Kannemeyer, bringing home the even money chance Penthouse and the 28-10 shot Jack Hobbs.

 

Danielson timed the runs of all for them to perfection, and on top of his all round ability, is becoming noted for his coolness in pressure situations.

 

He said, “It was an amazing feeling, especially when the crowd lined the chute on the way back to the parade ring and cheered me all the way.”

 

The Queen Mum of South African racing, Bridget Oppenheimer, also had a great end to the year, as her last four runners in KZN, the Craig Eudey-trained pair Chill and Neck Or Nothing and the van Zyl-trained pair Red Book and Wild Type, all won.

Danielson had spoken about the best horse he partners at present, The Apache, earlier in the week and said he had been back to his best in his last start on the night of 20 December when winning a Pinnacle Stakes event over 1600m at Turffontein.

 

The Apache beat his  van Zyl-trained SA Derby winning stablemate Seal and the Mike de Kock-trained L’Ormarins Queen’s Plate possible Link Man by 0,5 lengths at level weights after bursting between the pair late. 

 

Danielson said, “He had his normal burst. I was very happy with the run and knew he was going to win coming into the straight. The only thing I was worried about was getting through the gap.”

 

However, he added that he felt 1600m was not his best trip and he was better suited to further.

 

On his Summer Cup run in which he became one paced late and finished a 2,5 length fourth, albeit with second top weight, he said, “That was his second run after a rest and he wasn’t sharp enough and lacked his normal burst.”

 

The Apache is an entry for the J&B Met over 2000m at Kenilworth on January 28, but his name is missing from the L’Ormarins Queen’s Plate entry list over the Kenilworth 1600m on January 7.   

 

The above was sent from Gold Circle and David Thiselton

Thanks

Had an email from Charl at Freeracer to say Igugu will not run in the Paddock Stakes

scotia Wrote:

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> Had an email from Charl at Freeracer to say Igugu
> will not run in the Paddock Stakes

That will throw a cat among the pigeons. More like a lion than a cat, actually.

True magic the Paddock now looks flat sure a few trainers sad that Igugu scared them off and possibly Met betting a slight cloud? Including me

In Cape Town a the moment, heard the same. Igugu out f Paddock Stakes. Seems like something wrong

Any revised betting for the paddock stakes ?

Have not seen any? Consider Igugu was 80% deduction and if the second favs were 10/1, joint? They will probably be around 2/1 joint

I will probably go for a Snaith double