The Loneliness Of The Long Distance Punter

January 2012 has not been a good month for the punter:

Firstly - We have all been summarily banned from Betfair. This did not particularly bother me as I voluntarily ceased my betting activities using this medium a year or two ago when it became apparent that I would eventually run foul of some obscure regulation or law.

As I habitually repatriated my winnings I was always amused when the forex department of my bank unquestioningly accepted my unvarying reason for the arrival of the funds : 'Proceeds from my cocaine exports'. And immediately credited my account. So much for money laundering security........

Where it does hurt is insofar as the degree to which I used it (Betfair) to measure market moves, trends and general information ; particularly relating to UK racing. Does this mean I am now effectively restricted to backing South African soupmeat through lack of meaningful information? I'd rather take a course in Quantum Physics with Julie Alexander as my professor.

Furthermore Betfair also seem to have cut me off from the Timeform Radio stream as part of the new dispensation.

Now Interbet tell me that the formerly early posting of international racing has also been discontinued 'as a matter of policy'. It seems that the international racing now only trickles onto their screens after 1400 hrs. So goodbye to any double or multiples with early local racing.

They really do seem keen to chase us all into the arms of sports betting. Which is where we were going anyway!

Garrick Wrote:

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> January 2012 has not been a good month for the
> punter:


> They really do seem keen to chase us all into the
> arms of sports betting. Which is where we were
> going anyway!

Amen

Good post G

Cheers Garrick and a bigger move towards sport would appear the logical choice but bad for racing in general.

I didn't realise that you were into Quantum Physics.

I didn't realise SA racing was soupmeat. Damn and here I thought we had some thoroughbreds.

Magi Wrote:

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> I didn't realise SA racing was soupmeat. Damn and
> here I thought we had some thoroughbreds.

Don't confuse thoroughbreds with horses that can run, Magi. I've owned 50+ racehorses in my time. They were all 'thoroughbreds' but, in line with most other owners' experiences, the majority of them were soupmeat.

With respect ( and despite the ENDLESS self promotion of South African horses by mostly South African bloodstock interests ) our horses are probably about as good as the prices they command once you have converted their pricetags into a hard curreny.So a R4 million horse ends up being a US$ 500,000 horse - no big deal (pricewise) on the global stage and possibly a reasonably accurate international estimate of its perceived ability. Nevertheless its irrelevant - they don't know their prices!

But a hard nosed evaluation of the performance of our horses internationally would probably reveal the following :

With the exception of sprinters our homebreds are probably ranked somewhere between Listed and Grade 2 level internationally. So the talking heads can start off by expunging 'worldclass' from the hype for a start.

In particular - the closest we have come to producing a REAL worldclass horse over a genuine classic distance of between 2000m - 2400m ( based on actual performance internationally ) in my lifetime would possibly be Colorado King and/or Hawaii. I also believe Horse Chestnut would have been up to the necessary level had he not been injured.

In recent times we have done well with London News and Jay Peg. But the class in which they competed barely rates a mention other than to a local audience desperately seeking a global toehold. Certainly a Timeform ranking of the latter two is unlikely to invoke much excitement.

By way of illustration London News bumped into champion filly Bosra Sham during her UK campaign. I use the word 'champion' deliberately as she thrashed London News by about 19 lengths........

If you really want to get a feel for the quality of our local horses then try the following litmus test :

Do an unemotional evaluation of ANY South African race over 2400 metres. It's an absolute joke. They crawl along, stop for a rest at the halfway mark and then, if your fancy hasn't actually already had a heart attack at the top of the straight, they may raise a 400 - 600 metre sprint. Usually they finish with anything up to 40 lengths first-last. That's the measure of the 'worldclass' horses we claim to be breeding!

Garrick Wrote:

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> Magi Wrote:
>

---

>

---

> > I didn't realise SA racing was soupmeat. Damn
> and
> > here I thought we had some thoroughbreds.
>
> Don't confuse thoroughbreds with horses that can
> run, Magi. I've owned 50+ racehorses in my time.
> They were all 'thoroughbreds' but, in line with
> most other owners' experiences, the majority of
> them were soupmeat.
>
> With respect ( and despite the ENDLESS self
> promotion of South African horses by mostly South
> African bloodstock interests ) our horses are
> probably about as good as the prices they command
> once you have converted their pricetags into a
> hard curreny.So a R4 million horse ends up being a
> US$ 500,000 horse - no big deal (pricewise) on the
> global stage and possibly a reasonably accurate
> international estimate of its perceived ability.
> Nevertheless its irrelevant - they don't know
> their prices!
>
> But a hard nosed evaluation of the performance of
> our horses internationally would probably reveal
> the following :
>
> With the exception of sprinters our homebreds are
> probably ranked somewhere between Listed and Grade
> 2 level internationally. So the talking heads can
> start off by expunging 'worldclass' from the hype
> for a start.
>
> In particular - the closest we have come to
> producing a REAL worldclass horse over a genuine
> classic distance of between 2000m - 2400m ( based
> on actual performance internationally ) in my
> lifetime would possibly be Colorado King and/or
> Hawaii. I also believe Horse Chestnut would have
> been up to the necessary level had he not been
> injured.
>
> In recent times we have done well with London News
> and Jay Peg. But the class in which they competed
> barely rates a mention other than to a local
> audience desperately seeking a global toehold.
> Certainly a Timeform ranking of the latter two is
> unlikely to invoke much excitement.
>
> By way of illustration London News bumped into
> champion filly Bosra Sham during her UK campaign.
> I use the word 'champion' deliberately as she
> thrashed London News by about 19 lengths........
>
> If you really want to get a feel for the quality
> of our local horses then try the following litmus
> test :
>
> Do an unemotional evaluation of ANY South African
> race over 2400 metres. It's an absolute joke. They
> crawl along, stop for a rest at the halfway mark
> and then, if your fancy hasn't actually already
> had a heart attack at the top of the straight,
> they may raise a 400 - 600 metre sprint. Usually
> they finish with anything up to 40 lengths
> first-last. That's the measure of the 'worldclass'
> horses we claim to be breeding!


I have to agree with garricks assesment.The middle distance races are very stop/start regarding pace.
Do owners in SA generally purchase sprinters? I would look for more stamina.If you get a good one
the competition would be minimul..Its a big IF getting a good one i know

Interesting viewpoint, Garrick. I'd agree that your assessment is correct, but a little harsh. Holding up a standard as high as Colorado King, Hawaii or Horse Chestnut is a tough ask. How often do those horses come around? 1 in 100 000? When South Africa breeds a little over 3000 foals annually and the rest of the world produces another 97000, the odds of the best horse being SAF bred are not good.

My superficial examination suggests that our horses are precisely where they should be on the world scale, no better or worse than any other country that has a proper breeding operation, relative to the size of that operation.

Using some figures I found, I think at the IFHA site, South Africa has about 3% of the worlds starters, produced 3% of the worlds foals, and finished 2011 with 3% (11/353) of the horses ranked 115+ worldwide. I don't believe that there is any problem with the class of our horses. It's more a matter of the lack of depth that comes with a relatively small horse population.

We have numerous examples of horses that have raced abroad that point to our GR races probably being 1 level lower than their international counterparts, ie. a typical Gr2 winner here would be a Gr3 winner abroad etc. It's only our few very best Gr1 winners that win Gr1's overseas. Actually, I think this correlates with your comment "are probably ranked somewhere between Listed and Grade 2 level internationally".

This seems to hold true even in England. I'll take Imbongi as the first example that comes to mind.
In South Africa, he won 3 Gr2's and placed 2nd in a Gr1 (8 GR runs in total)
In Dubai+Hong Kong, he won 1 Gr2 and placed 3rd in a Gr1 (9 GR runs in total)
In England, he won 1 Gr3 and placed 3rd in a Gr2 (2 GR runs in total)

I think the stats do confirm Garrick's post, but I guess I prefer to look at it with a half-full rather than half-empty approach.

European Gr 1s are, to me, still the ultimate test of a horse )on turf, at any rate). As I've said before, the Japanese are desperate to win the Arc, yet despite a racing industry which is incomparably wealthier than ours they have yet to achieve it. I think we do well with what we have at our disposal (none of those mouth-watering shuttle stallions that pop up in Australia like mushrooms), and at times we sell ourselves a bit short. I've been told that the international handicappers tend to rate SA Graded races a couple of pounds higher than what our handicappers rate them.

Sabre's post makes sense to me. The odds against any horse being a true international Gr 1 performer are staggering, and our output is small. Not only that, but we've exported a handful of horses when you consider the overall global movement of thoroughbreds (European raiders in Australia for the Melbourne Cup and in America for the Breeders' Cup amongst others, come to mind). We are being asked to produce world class horses while having to make do with a selection of stallions which in all honesty is far from the creme de la creme in global terms, and with small numbers to boot. We'll crack one one day, but we have nothing to be ashamed of with what we have achieved to date.

Totally in agreement with you, Magic.

Now can we please dredge up a topic where we can have a really good DISAGREEMENT before people start talking.........

What about this thread : LET'S CLOSE GREYVILLE INSTEAD OF CLAIRWOOD BECAUSE IT IS AN UNFAIR COURSE AND CONTRIBUTES TO THE POOR STATE OF KWAZULU RACING

Lol