I think watch the first few races carefully - when I went to the track 2 weeks ago, the sand was very heavy with lot of kickback - horses needing to be covered up really had no chance and unless pulled out wide , winning from behind was not easy.
Other thoughts:
R2: 2 stand out for me - Mildford drawn wide again, but should be right there and Road Warrior
R3: Anyone's guess on how Biasca will do on the sand, but the Fort Wood's generally seem to handle it OK - certainly a P6 inclusion - lots of others with chances including Glittering Dreams who has improved in blinkers
R4: 1600 may be right at the end of Follow the Piper's reach, but still rates the one to beat - Runing Rivulet proving inconsistent, but could feature at best from the plum draw - dark horse for me is Spiced Gold, who has come down 18 points in MR to still be only 6 points out with FtP - the Kahal's generally like the sand, so a P6 and JP inclusion imo
R5: Very difficult handicap imo, on exposed form I find it hard to split them - go wide
R6: Hidden Beauty seems impossible to oppose - would be really happy with a 2nd place for Laurel - and on her last run she could certainly do that - ran a slightly faster time than Raise the Bar, carrying one kg less than RtB - today Laurel gets 4 kg's from RtB
R7: Mr Tobin seems to hold all the others he beat in December over this trip - however is one that comes from behind, so track conditions could prove a problem - Masai Warrior definite inclusion imo
R8: Tough race to close - upset not out of the question
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