NHA, do they have a clue?

Just looked at the latest ratings, and I have to ask if whether the NHA have a clue?

Variety Club (110) beats Silver Flyer (110) in the Guineas by 3.25 L and their new ratings reflect the 6lb gap, but + extra 1Kg to 118 & 112.

Variety Club then runs 2nd in the QP(1600m) in front of Tales Of Bravery (112) and Bravura (113) at WFA terms, 0.40 behind Gimmethegreenlight (new rating 117).

VC then runs 2nd to Jackson in the Derby(2000m) by 2 lengths, beating Potala Palace(105) and Mushreq(103) by 4.15 and 4.90.

Ratings now Jackson (116), Gimme (117) and Variety Club (116).

So had they rated VC the 116 for the 3 L win over Silver Flyer in the Guineas, they would have got the 116 VC is now, but poor Silver Flyer still sits with the inflated 112 for the initial error. It must be an error else there would not be adjustment.

Please Vee M or Roger S can disclose whether the minus 1kg of Variety Club because he was beaten 0.40 by a 117 horse in the QP, or because he ran 113 over the 2000m, or non of the above, and what this means to Silver Flyer, and all the other horses caught in their wake.

Mistakes of a Kg at this level is worth 100's of thousands of Rands, more even. Quick changes means playing very loose with the careers of young horses, and that the assessments are neither cautious nor accurate...especially as it "looked" wrong to most people to begin with.

i cant agree with ur last line..these horses wont run in handicaps only wfa races where ratings dont affect their weight so "playing with their careers"seems a bit drastic..but still it is important to get it correct..

Me, I'd make Jackson at least a 118. That allows for Variety Club quite likely being a couple of pounds below his best over 2000, which the overall Derby result suggests. I can't make Jackson less than 118, but I could go a bit higher. But that's just me.

you cant practise retrospective ratings..a horse must come out and run before it is re-assessed..otherwise you would be forever changing horses from mr45-122 from kimberly to jhb based on what horses from their formline have come out and done..i personally think variety shouldnt be less than 117..he did it hard in the queens plate and didnt stay the 2000m this ability..my opinion anyway..

In any case, I made Variety Club 116 after the Guineas, so I'd be happy with Silver Flyer's rating and it reinforces Jackson at 118.

But then I ain't a handicapper.

my response was to jack dash but i agree

We have discussed aspects of this before and I also had VC at 116 after the Guineas,and I am happy that it has stood up.................HOWEVER rating the Derby has got me stitched.
I cannot use the 3rd horse or Potala Palace as their ratings were not correct IMO so I have to stick with the 116 for the tiring VC.
It is now where opinion comes into it.........and I cannot convince myself the Jackson is much better over 2000 than VC over a mile,so for now I have Jackson at 117 and VC at 116,and I'll wait and see!

What rating did they give Tribal Dance?

Tribal Dance is 105

Tribal Dance 105
Divine Jet 109
What A Winter 117
Igugu 117
JJ 122
Bravura 116
Val De Ra 113

Justin V, it is irrelevant whether they are going to run in wfa or handicaps subsequently, or it becomes a ready made excuse.

The handicapper does not have the luxury of retrospective handicapping. The ratings have a knock on effect so they have to judge whether a race will hold or not. The biggest mistake in handicapping is when you can't decide whether something is a or b, so you make it c. It does not lend itself to compromise or fictitious measurements. I don't think we want guessing just because horses may not run in a handicap soon.

It is an absurd situation when you are dropping a young horse after running a close 2nd in an open Gr1 over a proven trip, and then another 2nd over 2000 for the first time. It can only mean they were wrong earlier, which means they took a flyer.

Karel Miedema Wrote:

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> Tribal Dance is 105

Thanks. Possibly the least he could be.

not bad for a one-time winner, hey Lips.