Scotia on Cheltenham.

Good afternoon all and less than a week before the festival kicks off.

Sometimes plans don't work out and instead of sharing a pint of Guiness with Molly, I will be sharing a pint of blood with Oscar! must just mention that I am really enjoying the World Focus show on Tellytrack, keep it up Molly and I am sure Bonski will keep the flag flying in your absence.

I have the perfect timing, when Big Bucks hits the front going over the last hurdle the surgeon will be charging me Big Bucks for repairing the hernia, just hope it's not a Long Run.

Thinking positive with this forced change of plan, this might be an omen to get to Ascot to watch Frankel and Black Caviar running?

The big news is the Cheltenham competition has been posted on the site and a massive thank you to Garrick for posting this challenge to the Clan....Details

I have taken a few doubles and trebles in advance which might sound optimistic under the circumstances but Sportingbet have promised to send winnings to Mrs S for the lads to have a good drink at the funeral.

My early selections are as follows


Day one 13th


Hurricane Fly

Arkle where Sprinter Sacre is hot fav at evens but I feel Al Ferof 5/2 and Cue Card at 8/1 might be a safer ew.
Hurricane Fly looks a banker at evens but you had to be impressed with Binocular's last win.
Quevega 13/20 looks a cert on day one.

Day two 14th


Bobs Worth

The bumper should be a cracker and still can't choose between New Years Eve 10/1 and Pique Sous 16/1
The chase should go to Sizing Europe at evens and the RSA is a hard call between Grand Crus 5/2 and Bobs Worth 4/1 but I am sure Grand is waiting confirmation of whether Kauto will line up for the Cup? So you either hold on or take the 4/1 Bobs.


Day three 15th


Big Bucks

The World hurdle will be taped for me but Big Bucks has eased slightly to 7/10 and the main challenge Oscar Whisky 11/2 has come in for support and maybe Oscar will be pouring me a whisky when I awake?

Gold Cup


Long Run

I am still in favour of Long Run 2/1 beating the Star 4/1 but won't be upset if Kauto wins and I am sure the crowd will go wild.

My early bets revolve around Hurricane Fly, Quevega, Sizing Europe, Big Bucks and Long Run.

Good punting and may your God be with you

Scotia

I doubt if Kauto Star will actually run

Kauto gallops at Wincanton this morning to confirm his readiness for the Cup.

To try and help fellow clansmen and myself who dont really follow jump racing that much:

Pointers to the Champion Hurdle

Great horses who have won this race are Istabraq, See You Then and Hardy Eustace

Grandouet is doubtful

Hurricane Fly won this race last year

24 of the last 28 winners had won their prep race

The last 17 winners have all won in their respective calendar years

Only one 5 year old has won in the last 25 years

In the last 20 years there have only been three winners outside the top 6 in the betting

So, what are we left with?

Hurricane Fly and Binocular!!

For me - Binocular

More to follow...

Ref: steveboxall.suite101.com/cheltenham-cham...cal-analysis-a404278

Some statistical pointers to the Queen Mother Chase day 2

Two miles

Usually run at a brisk pace

Great previous winners are Moscow Flyer and Master Minded

Hold Fast and Nacarat are doubtful starters and Peddler's Cross may be switched to another race

Nine of the past 10 winners had Gr1 winning form

20 winners from the past 25 years were at least placed in a previous festival meeting (Kauto Stone has no previous festival form)

8 winners from the last 11 races have been either Irish trained or trained by Paul Nicholls

And, again, 8 winners from the last 11 races (not sure if they are the same horses) had previously won the Tingle Creek Gr1 Chase at Sandown

Since 1978 only one horse, Moscow Flyer, has won older than 10

10 of the last 13 winners had started less than 5/1

And what does that leave us with now?
Finian's Rainbow;
Sizing Europe; and
Somersby
For me - Finian's Rainbow (I saw this horse stumble over the last fence and still power home, super impressive for me)

Ref: steveboxall.suite101.com/cheltenham-quee...cal-analysis-a404344

Some statistical pointers to the World Hurdle day 3

A three mile hurdle

Big Bucks will be going for his 4th consecutive World Hurdle and 16th consecutive win

Because of Big Bucks' entry the field size is likely to dwindle somewhat from the current 23 entered

The last 10 winners had either won the Long Walk Hurdle at Ascot in Dec and/or the Cleeve Hurdle at Chelts in Jan. Big Bucks won both, comfortably.

The last Irish trained winner was Doran's Pride way back in 1995

The World Hurdle has never been won by a five year old and only one horse 10 yrs and older has won the race

There are not that many winners outside the top four in the betting but then Big Bucks and the other good 'uns Inglis Drever and Baracouda ensured that in the last 8 years

Oscar Whiskey needs to prove he can stay whereas Thousand Stars has won over the ground.

It would still be a shock to see Big Bucks beaten, the greatest staying hurdler in history

Ref: steveboxall.suite101.com/cheltenham-worl...cal-analysis-a404400

Some statisitical points to the big one The Cheltenham Gold Cup day four the blue Riband of the National Hunt

26 runners are still entered

The last 12 winners were all previously Gr1 winners

The best trials for the Gold Cup have been the King Geoge VI and/or the Betfair Chase. This year, Kauto Star won both and the ruling Cup favourite, Long Run, ran second

Only 1 of the last 13 winners had not won a race in the same season

In the last 11 years all the winners have come from the top 3 in the betting

Best Mate (3 Cup winners), Kauto Star (2) and Denman have skewed the statistic of 10 from the last 11 winners had an official rating of 166+ and so Boxall says an official rating of 158+ is more reasonable

The last time a Cup winner was over the age of 10 was way back in 1969

The last time a winner of less than 6 starts over the sticks, the great Dawn Run, was in 1963

1974 was the last time a first season novice won

So, who is 10yrs and younger and, who has won at Gr1 level and, has won a race this season and, has previous Cheltenham form and, has at least 6 starts over the sticks but is not a novice.

Sadly, Kauto Star is 12 yrs old

Grand Crus is a novice and has had only 3 starts over the sticks

And the pot has filtered out 3 runners from the criteria:
Captain Chris, 33/1, 8yrs old, OR 164;
Long Run, ruling 6/4 fav, 7 yrs old, OR 182; and
Medermit, 50/1, 8 yrs old, OR 163.

Applying the top 3 in the betting into the criteria that only leaves Long Run
For me, I will wait awhile to ponder whether Kauto Star can defy statistics!

Ref: steveboxall.suite101.com/cheltenham-gold...cal-analysis-a403637

Current William Hill betting:
Long Run 6/4
Kauto Star 7/2
Grand Crus 6/1
Burton Port 7/1
The rest 12/1 and better

Txs Mac plus my op is on hold, so looking forward to some great racing!

Kauto Star for me.

Grand Crus Final decision by Noon Monday

So Bob I have till noon to punt Bobs Worth?

Running in the RSA