Ratings 130 Caviar and 129 Hay List
Three reasons to bring Hay List to Royal Ascot
BY SAM WALKER 10:20AM 12 MAR 2012
WORLD CLASS: an analysis of the international scene according to Racing Post Ratings
TRAINER John McNair has said Hay List will avoid a clash with Black Caviar at Royal Ascot, but after the world number two's success in the Newmarket Handicap on the weekend he spoke with a little more fight.
Hay List made Black Caviar sweat in the Lightning Stakes last month and eventually finished a length and three-quarters behind her, but after victory on Saturday, McNair said his charge had "improved two lengths" since that defeat.
Hang on a second old chap. Two lengths? Why, that would mean he would have . . . oh I see what you're saying, but then to prove it he would have to . . . oh, but you're not going to.
McNair may have used elementary mathematics to make a point that his star is better than ever, perhaps even better than Black Caviar, and he may be right on one count, but he will have to run against the mare to prove it and a match is not on the cards.
It is easy to understand why connections want to avoid filling yet another runner-up spot behind Black Caviar at Royal Ascot, but the Diamond Jubilee Stakes could provide him with the opportunity he has been waiting for.
Delaying his European trip for a year might mean that he avoids running intohis nemesis, but as a rising eight-year-old he is not likely to be at the height of his powers next year. He's at that point now. And now could be the time and circumstance to strike.
Did Saturday's result change connections' thinking on Royal Ascot? It should have made them think again and there are three reasons why.
The first is the distance. Until the Lightning Stakes last month, the closest Hay List had got to Black Caviar had been over 1200m (6f).
He has never been at his best over 5f, while Black Caviar has dished out some massive performances over the minimum trip.
If she were going to the Kings' Stand Stakes (5f) then forget it Hay List. Stay at home. But she's not. Peter Moody has opted for the 6f race, which plays more like 6.5f by Aussie standards, and that's going to test her stamina more than she has ever been tested before.
Both Black Caviar and Hay List have won over 1400m (7f) in Australia, but neither victory came in a strongly run race. At Ascot they will go end-to-end, up hill.
If the stiff 6f does mean the mare runs shy of her phenomenal best, then Hay List could get a little closer.
The second factor is the weight. Hay List has been shipping a 4.4lb mares' allowance to Black Caviar on every start in Australia, but he would only have to give her 3lb in Europe.
Peter Snow won't be dancing around his swingometer over that 1.4lb discrepancy, which counts for just under half-a-length over 6f, but it is nevertheless a swing in the gelding's favour.
The third factor is that he is clearly better than ever at present.
The results between the big two have been very one-sided affairs so far. Black Caviar has won all five meetings with Hay List second in four of them and finishing well beaten in the other, but he is getting closer.
From three-and-a-quarter lengths in last year's Lightning to one-and-three-quarters in this, and for a few strides this year, between the 300m and the 200m, he looked set to give her a race.
She had a fitness edge that day, with two easy wins under her belt in 2012, while it was Hay List's first start since finishing second in the BTC Cup last May.
Couple that fitness advantage with the fact Hay List has never been at his best over 5f and you can see there could be some substance to McNair's claims about his gelding's subsequent improvement.
Saturday's Newmarket Handicap was over 1200m and, as McNair expected, Hay List took a step forward, posting a career best RPR of 129.
It was a career defining performance, as he carried the highest weight to success in the Newmarket Handicap since 1959, but the form also looks very strong.
Runner-up Buffering ran to the same RPR of 120 he posted behind the big two in the Lightning, while fast finisher Woorim also matched his last time out figure of 115 from the Oakleigh Plate.
There was a big competitive field and they went a good clip, averaging around 10.5 seconds per furlong between the 1000m and the 400m.
Hay List is a big lad, so perhaps carrying weight isn't much of an issue to him, but given that he produced his best ever 5f performance first time up last month, his latest step forward is worth taking at face value.
In light of this improved showing, connections would surely be tempted to take on Black Caviar again if granted a stiff 6f and a 3lb mares allowance in Australia.
But flying round the world to Royal Ascot to find out if the circumstances might conspire in their favour may be one or two long-haul plane journeys too far.
Perhaps McNair and co will have another look at Ascot after his latest win, or perhaps they'll stay at home and take pride in having the best sprinter in the southern hemispherefor a couple of months.
Maybe their chosen route is the best one for the horse - accept that he's never going to beat her and win as many races as you can in her absence.
It has to be said, though, he can achieve more in defeat against Black Caviar (like really making her work and getting within a head, or maybe just coming out best at the weights) than he can by running against any other sprinter on the planet. Because until he does something against her, he will always be number two.
He seems to be getting closer to the mare and he won't get an opportunity in Australia like the one that the Diamond Jubilee presents.
It really boils down to whether they gun for the big dog again or avoid her like the plague and try to carve out their own littlepiece of history.
It was nice for them to make some history in the Newmarket as a horse of such ability deserves more credit than to be a perennial number two.
But he can never really escape her shadow. They are forever linked in time and place, and while the Newmarket confirmed Hay List as the only horse with the potential to beat Black Caviar, it also confirmed the supremacy, in a historical context, of the great mare Herself.
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