calling hibs regarding the super sopper
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Re: Re: calling hibs regarding the super sopper
13 years 2 months ago
Article i put on the site for Leon a few years back
Summer Cup week-end dawns
Gauteng’s premier racing event of the season has arrived, the Summer Cup now sponsored by Sansui and to be run as part of a 12 race day/night program at Turffontein tomorrow, the 28th Nov-09. The services of DJ Jazzy D and his famous friends have been engaged to provide entertainment for guests and all is now in place for Phumelela and the RA’s valiant effort to get people back to the races.
There’s also a ‘half-mil’ pick 6 carryover pool involved to spice things up, this courtesy of losing punters on KZN racing this past Wednesday. We’re likely to see the Pick 6 kitty swell to the R5mil mark and what could be better than this to add some ‘big-win hope’ to the 2009 Summer Cup occasion!
Remember with Interbet you can take all your Tote bets incl. the Pick 6, direct into Phumelela/Gold Circle pools via the Interbet online TAB agency.. and all from the comfort of your computer or cellphone. In addition to this, you can also use the funds in your Interbet account to trade on the Interbet online Bookmakers’ exchange, for the best fixed odds prices available on SA racing anywhere.
Bet from your computer www.interbet.co.za
Bet from your cellphone interbetsa.mobi
Read this article on your cellphone news.interbet.co.za
Current Summer Cup betting on Interbet
For an explanation of each column click here
Bookies’ margins down to 10% for the Summer Cup on Interbet’s online trading arena
Greyville bangers
The usual Friday night racing at Greyville has been moved to Saturday night, to intertwine and follow on from the Summer Cup so it’s going to be a long haul for punters looking to get in on all the action. The KZN card looks hellishly difficult overall but there are two races that may be worth a wager depending on price (no betting out at the time of writing).
Monetary Star worth another chance at Greyville on Saturday night
In the 3rd race we go with trainer Bennet Bulana once again to follow up on a successful strike (this past Wednesday) when Stage Star cruised in for his maiden victory at the unbelievable price of 15/4 on Interbet, despite being considered a good thing by many. This time it’s Monetary Star; he did let the side down last time after being previewed in this column as a good thing but as with Stage Star, must be given a 2nd chance to make amends.
The pace in Monetary Star’s last race was exceptionally hot, with most of the field just not prepared for it and found wanting, even before the turn for home. At the finish the first two past the post were 11 lengths clear of the rest of the field, typical of a result where the speed is on from the jump and fitness and stamina is of the utmost importance. It was Monetary Star’s first attempt at the extended distance of 2000m, he now comes back to 1600m here and there’s unlikely to be a repeat of the cut-throat pace dealt out last time. The competition is represented by the usual stuff maidens are made of at this time of year; a few youngsters set to throw out challenges and ultimately the yes/no to back Monetary Star comes down to price. 5/1+ is my take on strike value and I recommend a primed and ready stance should it become available.
Touch the Moon (far side) rallies to beat Bit of Bizet and win her maiden back in August this year.
In the 5th race, the impressive maiden winner Touch the Moon comes back from a rest to meet a weak looking field and she’s going to be a big runner here. She’s got solid juvenile feature form, is highly rated by the trainer and what caught my attention was that on the day of her last win, she stood out on the canter past as being just plain fat and undercooked. This didn’t stop her winning though and she put in a gutsy showing after hitting the front early, and then re-rallying to hold off a faster finishing Bit of Bizet who looked to have the race in the bag at the 200m. If Touch the Moon can produce that sort of resolution when looking like an inflatable, what will she do when she hits peak fitness? I can’t see her coming in less fit than when she won last time so my money’s on her returning here much improved, even if in need of the outing. She’s likely to start short-priced favourite but if not, well worth a bet at a decent price (5/2 anyone?)
ROI odds vs Winning chance percentages
After having spoken to numerous professional gamblers I’ve noticed that there’s a common thread running through their respective systems, and that is a focus on value ie. when the price odds are perceived as better value than the winning chance they represent. With this in mind, it may be worthwhile to point out the not so obvious math relationship between price odds and winning chance percentages.
Let’s take a horse priced at 5/10 as an example : The odds 5/10, represent a 50% return on investment.. not a 50% winning chance. Even money (1/1) represents a 50% winning chance, 5/10 represents a 66.6% winning chance. A 4/1 shot has 1 in 5 chances of winning (20%), and not 1 in 4 (25%) as may be assumed by those not paying attention.
So if you’re going to play an even money (1/1) chance, look for the one that you perceive to have a (greater than) >50% chance of winning, then you’re in the value zone. Similarly, if you’re going to play a 5/10 shot, go for the one that you perceive to have a >66.6% of winning. Remember this is horse racing, not the guaranteed randomness of the casino. A race is not just about whether the horse is good enough to win from the draw, with the weight and jockey, over the course and distance against the strength of competition he faces. There’s other ‘variable-constants!’ that need to be factored in, above and beyond the predictable. X number of horses lose their race at the jump, X number of horses lose their race through poor positioning, injury, bumping, boring at any stage between the jump and the finish. It only takes the horse next door to come out the gate sideways and it could be game over for your runner. What about the track conditions? Sometimes a horse is just not right on the day with no noticeable signs. Sometimes there’s a minor incident during transport.. and it goes unnoticed. Any number of things can and do go wrong. They must be factored in as a ‘standard deficit percentage’ over and above the horse’s perceived chance based on form – every time you take a bet.
Perhaps then it’s not just a matter of getting even money (100% return) on the runner you believe has a 60% to 70% chance of winning. Add in insurance against the dreaded ‘unforeseen incident’ and now you need to cushion things in your favour to the tune of 10% at least. As the price gets shorter, so the value get hacked-in disproportionately closer to the bone, think about it next time you want to rush in heavy on an 8/10 shot. Think about if it loses.. was it really worth the ROI ratio you bought into, or should you have lost considerably less than what you did by waiting for better odds, or skipping it altogether when you couldn’t get them!
Do not underestimate the supreme importance of price!, every stretch counts long term even though it may not be evident in the heat of the moment. A better price means a smaller wager is required to win the same target amount. No issue if it wins, but if it loses (and they do lose) the less you’ve invested the better.
Interbet’s fixed odds prices are on average 30% to 100% better than retail/disseminated odds, particularly during the last 15 minutes of trade when all the action happens. With these kind of stretches, you can’t afford not to use Interbet - it could be the difference between your profit and loss!
Bookmakers’ conversion
Payout odds and the equivalent winning chance expressed as a percentage
2/10 = 83.3%
5/10 = 66.7%
8/10 = 55.5%
9/10 = 52.6%
1/1 = 50%
2/1 = 33.3%
3/1 = 25%
4/1 = 20%
5/1 = 16.7%
Trainer wanted
Kenny Michel has informed us via the Interbet PR site on Facebook that the Korean Racing Authority has a position available for a race horse trainer (in Korea) on an initial 2 year contract which is negotiable thereafter. Interested parties can send their CV and/or queries to kenneth.michel@yahoo.com
Why don’t we have one of these?
The ‘Super Sopper in action’
Another interesting item that has popped up on the Interbet Facebook site is the ‘super sopper’ brought to our attention by Chris Swart (thanks Chris). Check this iron-mutha out; it’s designed specifically to vacuum water off racetrack and sports field surfaces! Google super sopper for more info.
It’s like a ride-on lawn mower - The Super Sopper close up.
To visit Interbet on Facebook click here (no login required)
The Super Soppers have their own parking space at Lords Cricket Ground, seen here with Inventor Gordon Withnall
Summer Cup week-end dawns
Gauteng’s premier racing event of the season has arrived, the Summer Cup now sponsored by Sansui and to be run as part of a 12 race day/night program at Turffontein tomorrow, the 28th Nov-09. The services of DJ Jazzy D and his famous friends have been engaged to provide entertainment for guests and all is now in place for Phumelela and the RA’s valiant effort to get people back to the races.
There’s also a ‘half-mil’ pick 6 carryover pool involved to spice things up, this courtesy of losing punters on KZN racing this past Wednesday. We’re likely to see the Pick 6 kitty swell to the R5mil mark and what could be better than this to add some ‘big-win hope’ to the 2009 Summer Cup occasion!
Remember with Interbet you can take all your Tote bets incl. the Pick 6, direct into Phumelela/Gold Circle pools via the Interbet online TAB agency.. and all from the comfort of your computer or cellphone. In addition to this, you can also use the funds in your Interbet account to trade on the Interbet online Bookmakers’ exchange, for the best fixed odds prices available on SA racing anywhere.
Bet from your computer www.interbet.co.za
Bet from your cellphone interbetsa.mobi
Read this article on your cellphone news.interbet.co.za
Current Summer Cup betting on Interbet
For an explanation of each column click here
Bookies’ margins down to 10% for the Summer Cup on Interbet’s online trading arena
Greyville bangers
The usual Friday night racing at Greyville has been moved to Saturday night, to intertwine and follow on from the Summer Cup so it’s going to be a long haul for punters looking to get in on all the action. The KZN card looks hellishly difficult overall but there are two races that may be worth a wager depending on price (no betting out at the time of writing).
Monetary Star worth another chance at Greyville on Saturday night
In the 3rd race we go with trainer Bennet Bulana once again to follow up on a successful strike (this past Wednesday) when Stage Star cruised in for his maiden victory at the unbelievable price of 15/4 on Interbet, despite being considered a good thing by many. This time it’s Monetary Star; he did let the side down last time after being previewed in this column as a good thing but as with Stage Star, must be given a 2nd chance to make amends.
The pace in Monetary Star’s last race was exceptionally hot, with most of the field just not prepared for it and found wanting, even before the turn for home. At the finish the first two past the post were 11 lengths clear of the rest of the field, typical of a result where the speed is on from the jump and fitness and stamina is of the utmost importance. It was Monetary Star’s first attempt at the extended distance of 2000m, he now comes back to 1600m here and there’s unlikely to be a repeat of the cut-throat pace dealt out last time. The competition is represented by the usual stuff maidens are made of at this time of year; a few youngsters set to throw out challenges and ultimately the yes/no to back Monetary Star comes down to price. 5/1+ is my take on strike value and I recommend a primed and ready stance should it become available.
Touch the Moon (far side) rallies to beat Bit of Bizet and win her maiden back in August this year.
In the 5th race, the impressive maiden winner Touch the Moon comes back from a rest to meet a weak looking field and she’s going to be a big runner here. She’s got solid juvenile feature form, is highly rated by the trainer and what caught my attention was that on the day of her last win, she stood out on the canter past as being just plain fat and undercooked. This didn’t stop her winning though and she put in a gutsy showing after hitting the front early, and then re-rallying to hold off a faster finishing Bit of Bizet who looked to have the race in the bag at the 200m. If Touch the Moon can produce that sort of resolution when looking like an inflatable, what will she do when she hits peak fitness? I can’t see her coming in less fit than when she won last time so my money’s on her returning here much improved, even if in need of the outing. She’s likely to start short-priced favourite but if not, well worth a bet at a decent price (5/2 anyone?)
ROI odds vs Winning chance percentages
After having spoken to numerous professional gamblers I’ve noticed that there’s a common thread running through their respective systems, and that is a focus on value ie. when the price odds are perceived as better value than the winning chance they represent. With this in mind, it may be worthwhile to point out the not so obvious math relationship between price odds and winning chance percentages.
Let’s take a horse priced at 5/10 as an example : The odds 5/10, represent a 50% return on investment.. not a 50% winning chance. Even money (1/1) represents a 50% winning chance, 5/10 represents a 66.6% winning chance. A 4/1 shot has 1 in 5 chances of winning (20%), and not 1 in 4 (25%) as may be assumed by those not paying attention.
So if you’re going to play an even money (1/1) chance, look for the one that you perceive to have a (greater than) >50% chance of winning, then you’re in the value zone. Similarly, if you’re going to play a 5/10 shot, go for the one that you perceive to have a >66.6% of winning. Remember this is horse racing, not the guaranteed randomness of the casino. A race is not just about whether the horse is good enough to win from the draw, with the weight and jockey, over the course and distance against the strength of competition he faces. There’s other ‘variable-constants!’ that need to be factored in, above and beyond the predictable. X number of horses lose their race at the jump, X number of horses lose their race through poor positioning, injury, bumping, boring at any stage between the jump and the finish. It only takes the horse next door to come out the gate sideways and it could be game over for your runner. What about the track conditions? Sometimes a horse is just not right on the day with no noticeable signs. Sometimes there’s a minor incident during transport.. and it goes unnoticed. Any number of things can and do go wrong. They must be factored in as a ‘standard deficit percentage’ over and above the horse’s perceived chance based on form – every time you take a bet.
Perhaps then it’s not just a matter of getting even money (100% return) on the runner you believe has a 60% to 70% chance of winning. Add in insurance against the dreaded ‘unforeseen incident’ and now you need to cushion things in your favour to the tune of 10% at least. As the price gets shorter, so the value get hacked-in disproportionately closer to the bone, think about it next time you want to rush in heavy on an 8/10 shot. Think about if it loses.. was it really worth the ROI ratio you bought into, or should you have lost considerably less than what you did by waiting for better odds, or skipping it altogether when you couldn’t get them!
Do not underestimate the supreme importance of price!, every stretch counts long term even though it may not be evident in the heat of the moment. A better price means a smaller wager is required to win the same target amount. No issue if it wins, but if it loses (and they do lose) the less you’ve invested the better.
Interbet’s fixed odds prices are on average 30% to 100% better than retail/disseminated odds, particularly during the last 15 minutes of trade when all the action happens. With these kind of stretches, you can’t afford not to use Interbet - it could be the difference between your profit and loss!
Bookmakers’ conversion
Payout odds and the equivalent winning chance expressed as a percentage
2/10 = 83.3%
5/10 = 66.7%
8/10 = 55.5%
9/10 = 52.6%
1/1 = 50%
2/1 = 33.3%
3/1 = 25%
4/1 = 20%
5/1 = 16.7%
Trainer wanted
Kenny Michel has informed us via the Interbet PR site on Facebook that the Korean Racing Authority has a position available for a race horse trainer (in Korea) on an initial 2 year contract which is negotiable thereafter. Interested parties can send their CV and/or queries to kenneth.michel@yahoo.com
Why don’t we have one of these?
The ‘Super Sopper in action’
Another interesting item that has popped up on the Interbet Facebook site is the ‘super sopper’ brought to our attention by Chris Swart (thanks Chris). Check this iron-mutha out; it’s designed specifically to vacuum water off racetrack and sports field surfaces! Google super sopper for more info.
It’s like a ride-on lawn mower - The Super Sopper close up.
To visit Interbet on Facebook click here (no login required)
The Super Soppers have their own parking space at Lords Cricket Ground, seen here with Inventor Gordon Withnall
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