Ryan Moore has rides in nearly all the big races at Meydan. In his first 'Weekend Rides' column he gives us honest appraisals of all his mounts and the opposition on the richest card in horse racing
I have been to and from Dubai since mid-January, and what has really struck me has been the stranglehold of Goldolphin on the Carnival this season. It has been more pronounced than ever this year, and they seem to have had nearly all the best horses.
So don't be surprised if they have a big night tonight.
The Tapeta surface can vary, and it tends to ride quick in the morning and slow down in the afternoon. Michael Dickinson has been on hand for the past two years to lend his expertise. He isn't around this season but the head groundsman has done a great job with the track, and he and his team has worked very hard on getting the grass track in good shape, too. People forget just what a difficult job it is to prepare a turf track in the middle of a desert.
It rode very quick at the Trials meeting and they have had a couple of sandstorms recently, and that has a hairdryer effect on the track.
The draw is crucial at Meydan and the pace of the race is often more important than a horse having a few pounds in hand. It is vital and deciding whether to sit and wait on a poorly drawn horse, or to go on, is key. You certainly don't want to be using up too much of your horse too early.
And on the Tapeta, which is a tight track, you need a strong travelling horse which can hold its position. What isn't ideal is if you are on a horse who gets off the bridle early on; you are in trouble if you are. You need a horse who can bring you into the race at Meydan, not one on which you have to force the issue too early. It obviously depends on how the track rides tonight but, generally, I would have said you should be looking for what I would call grinders, rather than horses with a turn of foot.
And fitness is key. You need to be in tip-top shape, as the surface will find you out if you are not at your peak.
Very often, how the race is run is more crucial than being on the form horse. So bear that in mind tonight.
14:10, Meydan - Godolphin Mile
Western Aristocrat
I have ridden this horse twice, when winning on his debut at Newmarket as a 2yo and when third at Goodwood in July. And he went on to improve at the backend of last season, winning at Kempton - even though it is obviously a different surface and the other way round, that must stand him in decent stead here - before going on to race twice on turf in the States. He made all to beat a fair horse in the Grade 1 Jamaica handicap over 1m1f at Belmont on the first of those, before looking very unlucky, meeting trouble in-running, in the Hollywood Derby over 1m2f.
The step back to a mile shouldn't be a problem - he was a fair third in the Jersey over 7f - and I'd be hopeful of him giving me a good ride. He has an each way chance.
But African Story looks the horse to beat if in the same form that saw him win a Group 3 by 4 lengths here three weeks ago; I rode in the race and he was very impressive. This doesn't look the strongest of Group 2 races so you would have to think Red Jazz, a solid performer in this grade at home, has a chance. He probably wasn't at his best when third in this race last season but the experience of the surface will have helped him.
14:45, Meydan - Dubai Gold Cup
Barbican
This is a new race on the night and it has attracted a decent field, with Opinion Poll and Fox Hunt looking to set the standard. Opinion Poll looks the better horse on his UK form, such as his Lonsdale win at York or his second to Fame And Glory at Ascot - but I just wonder if he is as good a horse in Dubai. His Meydan record is 0 from 4 and that included a 2 ½ length defeat by Fox Hunt here last time (a race in which I rode Jakkalberry in third). So the fast improving Fox Hunt, who was getting beaten off marks of 95 at the start of last season in the UK, looks the horse to beat.
But don't underestimate the horse I ride, Barbican. He made his debut in a Wolverhampton maiden just over a year ago and was gaining his sixth win of 2011 when winning a Kempton 1m4f listed race by 5 lengths in November. That was my first ride on him and he impressed me, and he had earlier showed his stamina and guts to get back up to win an Ascot listed race over 1m6f. You would have to think there is further improvement in him in his second season racing.
Kasbah Bliss will find 2m on quick ground to his liking and you have to respect the Japanese here - you only have to look at their 1-2 in last year's World Cup - and they are represented by Makani Bisty.
15:25, Meydan - UAE Derby
Wrote
Let's hope I can go one better in this race than last year when I was just touched off by a nose on Aidan's Master Of Hounds. But this race will take more winning than usual as I have never seen such an international field, coming from all corners of the globe, and it is hard to get an accurate gauge on the form or what the pace and tempo of the race will be; normally the UAE Derby is Godolphin v Mike De Kock.
Before I was drawn in 13, I thought Wrote was my idea of my best ride and chance of the meeting. He still may be but the draw is a big concern. But if he runs his race then it will take a genuine Group 1 horse to beat him as Wrote really impressed me when winning the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf by over 2 lengths at Churchill Downs in November, showing a good turn of foot. The extra furlong won't be a problem here but obviously the surface is an unknown.
16:00, Meydan - Al Quoz Sprint
Nocturnal Affair
Has run well in all four of his starts in Dubai this year and won well for me last month, albeit off a mark of just 105 in a handicap and he meets Group 1 animals here today. What I will say though is that things didn't pan out for us at all from stall five when he was beaten a short head and a ½ length when third in a conditions race last time - I was following Regally Ready but he was never travelling, so I had to switch him to the outside - so I wouldn't rule out further improvement.
But, as I said, he takes on proven top-flight winners here. He could nick a place but I think the Hong Kong sprinters are the best in the world at present, depth-wise, and you have to respect Joy And Fun, back to winning form last time and winner of this race two years ago. The 2010 Nunthorpe winner Sole Power ran a good race last time (he was ½ length in front of Nocturnal Affair) and I can see him running well, too.
16:35, Meydan - Golden Shaheen
With August Rush re-routed to the Al Quoz, I don't have a ride in this race. Last year's winner Rocket Man is probably going to take a lot of catching from stall one. But there is a horse in here that I really like the look of, having watched all of his races in America. The Factor disappointed when tried over 1m in the Dirt Mile at Churchill in November and has shown all his form over 7f, but if he can show his best over this shorter trip then I think he is the most talented horse in the race. He doesn't look to lack pace, either.
17:25, Meydan - Dubai Duty Free
Presvis
We bid to follow up our victory in this race last year, when we beat River Jetez by 3/4 length. But this looks a far stronger renewal and he may even need a career-best to win at the age of 8. I would love him to, but on the evidence of his two runs in Dubai this year that has to look doubtful in this line-up, as he was soundly beaten in the Jebel Hatta earlier this month. But we have been relatively easy on him and let's hope the three weeks since that run have seen him return to his best and that he repays the patience he has been shown. I wouldn't be too worried about being drawn 12; this will be a very tactical race and, anyway, I finished second to Gladiatorus from stall 16 on him in this race three years ago.
If I was asked to name two against the field, I would nominate Ambitious Dragon and Cityscape. I have been very impressed by Ambitious Dragon's Group 1 wins at Sha Tin this year and he looks a top-class horse to me. And I think 1m1f under a patient ride could be ideal for him around here; in fact he is my idea of the best bet of the meeting.
Cityscape's third to Canford Cliffs and Goldikova in the Queen Anne (I rode him that day) is arguably the strongest form coming into this race and he ran a blinder in the Hong Kong Mile last time. But two consecutive runs on quick ground may be a worry for him, and he races over this trip for the first time as well. Again, though, this is a very competitive race and a case can be made for plenty of these, but I do like Ambitious Dragon.
18:00, Meydan - Sheema Classic
Jakkalberry
Group 1 winner over 1m4f in Italy as a 3yo and rounded off last season with a good seventh in the Hong Kong Vase. We were aiming him at the Gold Cup (a new race on this card this year) prior to his third to Fox Hunt over 1m6f here earlier in the month but, while he ran OK and stuck on well enough, than run told us that he didn't have the necessary stamina for two miles. So he tries his hand here in this Group 1 contest over 1m4f. On all known form, he has his work cut out as, while this is one of the smallest Sheema Classics that I can remember in terms of runners (and I think you can rule out five or six of these), the likes of St Nicholas Abbey and Cirrus Des Aigles set a very high form standard.
But there is a horse on an upward curve in here that I wouldn't underestimate. I rode in the race that Beaten Up won at Newbury last season and he looked a very impressive, progressive horse. It may have only been a Group 3 but he won easily and I like him. Beaten Up has it all to prove at this level, and he will almost certainly be in a battle for the first time today, but he wouldn't be a horse I would underestimate, though I think St Nicholas Abbey is by far the most likeliest winner and I thought he would be a fair bit shorter than 4.0 in the betting.
When I was looking at this race last week, I liked Simon De Montfort as an outsider. He doesn't now race on the night but he is a horse I would look out for this season. He only won off a mark of 104 here earlier in the month - how he got into that race off that mark in the first place is another matter - but the turn of foot he showed to win that day had to be seen to be believed. I know he has a history of going well when fresh but I rode in that race and to do what he did, quickening like that off what was a slow pace, was something else. It takes an exceptional horse to do something like that.
18:40, Meydan - Dubai World Cup
Planteur
Has joined Marco Botti from Elie Lellouche. I rode Planteur in a nice piece of work at Wolverhampton recently, and he strikes me as the sort who will handle the Tapeta surface. As I mentioned above, the surface can really find a horse out if it isn't 100 per cent straight and that has to be an issue with Planteur, who hasn't raced since September. Like most horses travelling over, he will have only arrived four or five days before the race and he may not be at his sharpest after a break. And he certainly has something to find on the book with the likes of clear form choice So You Think.
So You Think is obviously a horse I know very well and he certainly has a favourite's chance if handling the surface; but you never truly know how a horse is going to act on it until he has raced on it and that obviously applies to Planteur, too. In my horse's favour is that he goes very well when fresh; he beat Rewilding first time up over 1m3f at Longchamp in April 2010, having not raced since the previous September, and won the Harcourt last season before going on to beat Sarafina in the Ganay.
So, although his form tailed off somewhat at the end of last season when he was tried over 1m, he is a proven Group 1 performer and racing over his optimum trip. There will be a very strong pace on here with the likes of Game On Dude (a particularly tough horse to pass from what I have seen, but drawn in 14), Smart Falcon, Capponi, Master Of Hounds and Transcend and the past two runnings of this race has shown that punters should maybe should look for the best draw and pace angles, rather than form. You could have thrown a blanket over the field in recent World Cups. This is another very hard race to predict - and it certainly has been in the last two years, with Victoire Pisa and Gloria De Campeao winning - but hopefully from stall 6 I can sit fourth or fifth on Planteur, travelling well, and then see if his turn of foot materialises on the surface. Hopeful but certainly not confident.
