South African racing in Greece

Maybe this can help with odds www.bookies.co.za/ ! Click on Top odds .com !

also www.tabgold.co.za/odds/ and www.tabgold.co.za/future/fixed.htm

another good site www.formgrids.co.za/subscriber/fgRaceIndexB.aspx?cnty=ZA

Thanks a lot for the info.
Btw winningform is a strange site. No ads, no sponsor, no email, no memberships, no links ...

kajamix Wrote:

---

>
> The real handicapper uses probability laws,
> derived from speed figures.
> That's the a-b-c of racing.
> Only then are you a real horse handicapper.
> Subsequently you have to look into other factors,
> like other people's opinion, aluminum hooves
> a.s.o. but your start point is speed analysis, so
> you enter the classroom with some preparation.

Do not agree with you

Who do you agree with ?
If you look at unadjusted speed figures and also if you jump races because "it's not the same distance", as many people do, , then of course it fails.

First two went through.
Hidden Rave a donkey if I ever saw one.

You may answer this if you like:
How come the no 9 in the 5th of Fairview was promoted to race favorite against the advice of the morning line (Trouble Again) ? Must be a reason, never mind his ultimate failure.

I was in topodds.com in the web but the tv screen from Phumelela also shows some tote prices. Is that coming from some website ? Which one is more reliable, fixed odds indications or tote indications ?

Another thing:
Colours.
No colours like racingpost ?
I 'm going to write to topodds.com about it.

you can get the colours on formgrids,why would you write to toppodds?

Winningform times are adjusted for all the conditions of the race run and then the "adjusted time" is published as a conversion to the race being forecast.
They have recently done a makeover and the adjusted times are now far more accurate...........this is something they should do quite regularly as data gets contaminated over time!


Kajamix,your question regarding Trouble Again............the horse was at the bottom of the weights and under sufferance.....The backers must have believed he was better than rated.............or just didn't notice!

hibernia Wrote:

---

> you can get the colours on formgrids,why would you
> write to toppodds?


I did make the request.
Formgrids are not an odds site, so how many windows can one open at the same time ?
Phumelela's pdf also displays the colours, but for some reason they did n't mail one today.

Kajamix,for someone asking for help,you are an aggressive fellow.
If you want an odds site with colours,its "bookies.co.za"

rob faux Wrote:

---

> Winningform times are adjusted for all the
> conditions of the race run and then the "adjusted
> time" is published as a conversion to the race
> being forecast.
> They have recently done a makeover and the
> adjusted times are now far more
> accurate...........this is something they should
> do quite regularly as data gets contaminated over
> time!
>
>
> Kajamix,your question regarding Trouble
> Again............the horse was at the bottom of
> the weights and under sufferance.....The backers
> must have believed he was better than
> rated.............or just didn't notice!


Those adjustments are notoriously tricky.
If you use linear regression you can easily be led up the garden path ...
Well, let's hope their formulas were worked out carefullly.
This site I think is strange because they have no email etc. Who is the sponsor ?

Another thing they should look into (and maybe they already have) is the histogrammic analysis of the speed figures.
The adjustments may be correct, but to derive a "predicted time", you have to make projection and that requires picking the best weighted mean from the range of past values.

It's tricky dicky stuff because linear regression as I say fools you and you have to use other statistical tools (stochastic regression).

rob faux Wrote:

---

> Kajamix,for someone asking for help,you are an
> aggressive fellow.
> If you want an odds site with colours,its
> "bookies.co.za"

I 'm tame not aggressive.
Hmmm - where exactly in bookies.co.za ?
Now it's late, no races and on race hours the computer operator is someone else.
So could you be more specific ?

www.bookies.co.za..........thats about as specific as I can get!
Already priced up for both SA meetings t'morrow.