Draw Bias At The Vaal

After reading the posts about todays Vaal thread I thought I'd have a look at the stipes reports to confirm exactly which of the recent Vaal meetings were run on the outside track and which on the inside track.I then checked then against the run ons on tabgold to see if any conclusion could be drawn about draw bias.

There is a blatant draw bias on the inside track,we all know that,especially after tuesdays meeting.

However,I could not come to the conclusion that there is a draw bias on the outside track.It's not a blatant at least,let's put it that way.On the meeting of the 23rd February the winner of race 6 which was a 1200m race was drawn 1 and the 2nd horse was drawn 2.

In Race 3 over 1200m the winner Skitt Skizzle(which was obviously way superior to the field)is drawn 13,but the 2nd comes from draw 12.

In race 7 which was also a 1200m race the winner was drawn 2 and the 2nd was drawn 1.

The very next race which is over 1400m the winner is drawn 10 and the 2nd is drawn 11.

I looked at other meetings too,the above is just an example.

In conclusion I would say one should not be put off having a bet on a horse drawn low early in the day simply because it hasn't got what seems to be perceived as a favourable draw.If the 1st few races prove that there is a draw bias that would make me change my mind,but I would not be put off a punt simply because of a draw at this stage.

Agree 100%

thks for that jap much appreciated

Great thanks J man...(tu)

Having looked a bit harder the only conclusion I can come to is that the winner won wherever the best horses were,which makes perfect sense.

Kenilworth on saturday was similar.With the change of wind direction to a tail wind it was no longer of tantamount importance to come to the outside rail,so we had races with winners hard against the inside and hard against the outside.

I think the key is that you don't want to race up the middle the whole way at the Vaal.Like LG posted,that is where the the most virgin ground is and it's definitely disadvantageous.

Nice post and thanks JAP. For the record I believe that you look where the LONGEST PRICE horses are finishing close up... and I usually make that the better going for the day (all courses) .... and that is ONLY to assist me when I am undecided bewteen two or three horses then I favour the one drawn in 'my' perceived better going.Not an exact science to be sure

I would only use the above if there was a draw bias.For me I don't see any draw bias,so just checked to see where the fancied horses were and my conclusion is that if you have the form you can win from any draw,although extreme inside or extreme outside could be best.If anything,that may in fact be where there is some bias.

Cheers JAP

I would say that they will all try to come to the outside rail for the rest of the day now,irrespective of whether there is an actual bias or not.

Bumped up for davetheenglishrose

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> Bumped up for davetheenglishrose


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