BETTING STRATEGY REVISITED

Dave

correct, in my early days on betfair i actually did something along the lines of the above. After every winning bet i had i would put the pounds and pennies onto barcelone for the Cl. SO if my account was at £1318.43 i would stick £18.43 on Barca and then continue punting. I did this for a full year and then traded out.

I can honestly see huge mileage in this strategy of Garricks

Garricks point of covering the first leg is the most revelant point in all of this imo.I love taking dbls into long term events,but laying off the last leg seems illogical to me.If I'm taking a dbl I will have a straight bet that constitutes about 2 or 3 times the stake I'm investing in the dbl.

eg:Let's say I like Marcus on You're Amazing in the 1st today.I'll take 5000/5500 on the straight bet and put 2000 onto a dbl into Man Utd to win the Premier League.

I do this as I keep my daily figures,so the dbl stake get's 'lost' in the daily figure and I don't feel like I'm massively invested when the 2nd leg finally runs it's course.

The reason I say laying off the 2nd leg is illogical is because you can only be laying it off because you are laying a shorter price than you bought it in at.So you get left with the bets that are the unlikely winners(they are unlikely to be drifting otherwise) and you lay off winnings from the bets that are most likely to arrive.It's just my way of looking at it though.

I think taking a position in long terms markets is the only way to win proper money in SA.

Laying off is not illogical if you have bought in a bet especially because you think that the markup is incorrect.That is a different issue altogether.

I did that with Igugu in the Met this year.The initial markup seemed way too big at 3-1,but I missed that price.I then started taking dbls at 5-2 and continued down to 18-10.In my mind she was a 66%(5-10) shot to win the race,and had to start odds on.Despite things going wrong she still started 7/10.

I layed some off because I had over-exposed myself on the event specifically to be able to lay off.That is very different from taking dbls into a team because you think they are the likely winner of an event(if that makes sense).

I think that this thread shows so clearly the wonderful world of betting,and the amazingly diverse views and attitudes to risk/profit.
It also highlights the difference between betting and trading..............I am comparitivey risk averse and lock in profit at almost every opportunity and often bet with that in mind.
I have "wildmen" mates who go "B@lls to the wall" and will hold position no matter what.
My "trading"mindset started in the late 60's
I used to take one j'pot perm,always banking the favourite in the last leg................if a roughie or 2 arrived early ,I used to "sell half the ticket to a bookie(we never what pots were going to pay,at any stage, in those days so,so with one leg to go ,the estimation of payout,and therefore value of the ticket, was part of the skill)

Titch Wrote:

---

> I have 1 live bet going thru to Crusaders to lift
> the cup
>
>
> 29-May-2012 197205 Horse Racing HUNTINGDON Hcp 5 O
> CALLAGHAN STRAND Win 11/10- Win
> 29-May-2012 197205 Horse Racing SCOTTSVILLE Race
> 1 HONORINE # Win 12/10 - Win
> 29-May-2012 197205 Rugby Union Super Rugby Winner
> - 2012 Crusaders Win 2.75 - Active
> 8162.50/500
>
> I also did take loosing bets into the crusaders
> totaling R1560 so my bet in fact is 8162/2060


This illustrates my point exactly.
You seem to think you have 8162/2060 (0r 3.96/1) on the crusaders.
You know very well that you will not get the losing stake back if the bet wins – it is already lost. What you have is a possibility to win 8162 for a total outlay of 2060. Your profit will be 8162-1560=6602 (or 3.2/1.)
If you had simply put the 2K on the Crusaders over a period of weeks (especially if they had drifted from the price you took originally) you could well have been better off, without the aggravation of finding something to take in the doubles.
That is why bookies love laying doubles etc. – it gives them room to manoeuvre if the first “hottie” arrives. They have not yet lost anything on the “hottie”, and have time to get the book right on the next event.