BETTING STRATEGY REVISITED

The end of the round robin portion of the Super 15 is possibly a good opportunity to revisit the issue of betting strategies.

By now you are either bruised, nervous or expectant with regard to the ultimate outcome of your participation. Or worst of all – you have nothing going forward.

If this is the case then I sincerely believe we need to revisit betting strategies 101!

After a betting career which started in 1972 I came to the belated conclusion (having paid a couple of million in ‘university fees’ ) that tournaments represent your best possible opportunity for making decent money from betting.

‘Tournament’ is probably not the correct term. ‘Big Event’ is better. Unfortunately we have very few long term ante-post betting opportunities in SA racing so sports events tend to make up the most obvious targets.

Let’s start off by listing some of the opportunities you could exploit :

Racing : July, Met, Summer Cup, Gold Cup.

Rugby : Super 15, Rugby Championship, Currie Cup, World Cup.

Cricket : Any test series, ODI World Cup, T20 World Cup.

Football : Premiership, Champions League and/or any other league which you follow.

Tennis : Majors.

Golf : Majors ( But best dealt with as standalone exercises )

Your first decision is to determine the sports where you feel you are reasonably well versed.

Your second mind shift is to STOP BEING A FAN. You are in this to make money and not to simply put your cash behind a side that you are emotionally tied to.

Third – set up a calendar of the major ‘destination events’ that you wish to focus on. In other words you are going to direct ALL your action into a handful of events.

( This requires a further mind shift as you will be consciously planning only a handful of potential pay days per annum ).

EXAMPLE :

You like football and racing.

You decide to make the English Premiership your ‘destination event’. The Premiership ends in early May so all your action from January through to May will be focused on bets into the Premiership.
Thereafter the next big opportunity is the July. So you have the balance of May, June – July to focus on the next event. Etc.,

After the July you are nearly ready to re-start with the next premiership in August. Etc., etc.

A typical bet would be one where you fancy a horse at, say, Clairwood next Tuesday. How should you play it ?

You take a double*** with your Premiership selection. You also cover your double STAKE with any bet of your preference – whether that be another win bet on the same horse or a place bet or a cover bet on an obvious competitor.

If your selection wins you have an effective free strike on the Premiership. If it loses you can focus for the next period in ‘getting out’ or incorporate your loss to date when you set up your next double or multiple.

***By taking a sport/horse double you will create a betting tax problem so you can alternatively have the bet on the nose and then simply punt the Premiership side with the dividend + stake to avoid unnecessary betting tax.

By playing with a longer term objective you will find that you become a lot more selective in your approach. As your bank of stock begins to rise so does your level of excitement and anticipation.

Obviously the odds on your ‘destination event’ will be changing from time to time. So in some weeks you will be getting better value than in others. To cover your overall position you have two options available to you :

You can fire a couple of doubles/multiples into any obvious competitors in the ‘destination event’.

Or you can lay off your first choice as you draw closer to the conclusion of the event. If you have surplus stock or the price has contracted to the point where it would be simply stupid not to have it both ways.

( Laying off is misunderstood by many punters. It works as follows : If you have struck a number of successful bets with bookmaker A you may be able to sell back to him the last leg of your multiple/single bet if the price has shortened and there is strong demand for the horse/team. This is perfectly legal and would allow you to win whatever the result. By balancing your stock you could, if you wished, win an identical amount whether your final choice won or lost ).

So now you have the principles. How would this have worked in the Super 15?

Many posters avoid sports betting because they see prices as ‘too short’. This is a clear statement of ignorance if you adopt some of the strategies described above. But there are also other considerations :

There are only 3 possible outcomes in a rugby game : Win, Lose or Draw. Prices on offer about the eventual winner often rival or exceed the odds on favourites in a horse race but without you having to deal with up to 19 competitors. ( After considering this you might hesitate before ever again backing a horse like Jackson at 18/10 from a bad draw against 19 others! Just the simple maths doesn’t look good particularly when you already know that only 35% of favourites win).

So – if you had staked your colours to the Crusaders mast for the entire tournament what would you have created so far?

The Crusaders traded between a range of 22/10 – 7/2 during the tournament. Let’s average them at 28/10.

It should not have been overly difficult for you to find a succession of winning matches during the competition where you would have got 9/10. A succession of doubles would have seen your stock quickly accumulate.

This means that you should now be sitting with stock at 11/2 about the Crusaders . I doubt whether there are many bookmakers who would not be happy to take back between 28/10-3/1 ( against your 6,5/1 ) from you in spades right now! If the Crusaders make it past the Bulls this weekend then that demand will intensify at even lower prices.

Apply this formula to any other side and the final average odds are MASSIVELY bigger. To prove my point let’s look at the range for ALL of the top 6 qualifying sides since February ( These are the highest/lowest prices that were on offer during the round robin ):

Bulls : 14/1 – 9/2
Chiefs : 16/1 – 28/10
Crusaders : 7/2 – 22/10
Reds : 25/1 – 5/1
Stormers : 10/1 – 22/10
Sharks : 25/1 – 12/1

Just taking the example of the Reds – you could still get 25/1 about their chances before this last weekend and they now have a HUGE opportunity to go forward. (Posters can confirm that I actively encouraged backing them on a number of occasions when they were offered at 20/1 ).

It’s not too late to get involved with three rounds left to play. And you most certainly do not have to accept prices of 2/7, 1/3 or 4/10 when getting involved if you plan your play wisely.

Thanks again Garrick, I find a lack of ante post bets from our local based bookies can be a negative as I tend to focus on big overseas races in advance the ARC would be a good example.

Excellent thread,should be more comments on this thread than any other by the end of the day but there wont be..

“The Crusaders traded between a range of 22/10 – 7/2 during the tournament. Let’s average them at 28/10. It should not have been overly difficult for you to find a succession of winning matches during the competition where you would have got 9/10. A succession of doubles would have seen your stock quickly accumulate. This means that you should now be sitting with stock at 11/2 about the Crusaders.”

I fail to see the fascination of atc bets and doubles. Although you may have “stocks at 11/2”, that is obviously not the real return on your money.

If you had found a succession, of say 3, winning matches at 9/10, you are just as likely to have 3 losers at 9/10. You now have three “live” bets of say 6600/1000 (9/10 and 3/1) on the Crusaders, but it actually cost you R6000, and not just R3000. In effect you have now averaged less than 3/1 for your money. Why not simply put the money on a straight punt?

Excellent post, I also enjoy taking long term bets with doubles and lay off as the season goes on. (tu)

I have 1 live bet going thru to Crusaders to lift the cup


29-May-2012 197205 Horse Racing HUNTINGDON Hcp 5 O CALLAGHAN STRAND Win 11/10- Win
29-May-2012 197205 Horse Racing SCOTTSVILLE Race 1 HONORINE # Win 12/10 - Win
29-May-2012 197205 Rugby Union Super Rugby Winner - 2012 Crusaders Win 2.75 - Active
8162.50/500

I also did take loosing bets into the crusaders totaling R1560 so my bet in fact is 8162/2060

fingers Wrote:

---

> “The Crusaders traded between a range of 22/10
> – 7/2 during the tournament. Let’s average
> them at 28/10. It should not have been overly
> difficult for you to find a succession of winning
> matches during the competition where you would
> have got 9/10. A succession of doubles would have
> seen your stock quickly accumulate. This means
> that you should now be sitting with stock at 11/2
> about the Crusaders.”
>
> I fail to see the fascination of atc bets and
> doubles. Although you may have “stocks at
> 11/2”, that is obviously not the real return on
> your money.
>
> If you had found a succession, of say 3, winning
> matches at 9/10, you are just as likely to have 3
> losers at 9/10. You now have three “live” bets
> of say 6600/1000 (9/10 and 3/1) on the Crusaders,
> but it actually cost you R6000, and not just
> R3000. In effect you have now averaged less than
> 3/1 for your money. Why not simply put the money
> on a straight punt?


Fingers - you make a very valid point but overlook some important issues regarding punting :

1.) Using doubles as a strategy addresses one of the most important issues regarding punting : PSYCHOLOGY. I have observed dozens of punters over the years ( myself included ) and few, if any, will ever take a winning bet AND the stake and roll it over onto the next leg. At the very least they will take out the stake and/or reduce the stake into the second leg - normally to bring the bet in line WITH WHAT THEY HABITUALLY WAGER.

So doubles or ATCs almost force a punter to shoot for a bigger gross bet than he would normally be inclined to do.

2.) You might have missed the part of my suggestion where I recommended you cover your stake UP FRONT along with taking the multiple. This allows you the freedom to adjust LATER when/if the market shortens and you can profit from balancing your book. In the later part of the tournament this could be very profitable.

3.) The reason why multiples do have a role is because of the weekly drifting/shortening in the long term market.

4.) It's a sad fact that most punters are addicts and find it difficult NOT TO have a bet for long periods. Firing multiples into long term events provides betting opportunities where at least one leg will still allow later opportunities for re-engineering.

5.) It offers punters long term propects without having to outlay excessive amounts on short term hot favourites. eg If you wanted to win R1,000 off a 4/10 favourite your outlay is R1,000 - R2,500. Using the short priced favourite as your first leg together with a 3/1 second leg you need only outlay R 220 - something you might be grateful for if the 'hottie' gets rolled.

6.) Some outlets will not accept single bets of they size that they will happily accept as multiples.

there is alot of merit in this, i have never done this myself but i can actually a different advantage.

Lets say i choose Man City (premiership) and Real Madrid (la Liga) and Man United (premiership) and Barcelona (champion League) as my destinations.....oh bollcks ill stick to just one.

THE HUGE advantage i spot with this is that (betfair especially) If i win £1000 on a horse ITS NOT REAL, its just a number on a screen. If i win £1000 in the betting shop the bookie needs a sawn off shot gun to get more than £500 of it back.

So i can see that by the end of a season i could end up with maybe standing to win £10k from Man city for example


and that £10k will tatse very very sweet. Infact I BET you that they dont even get 10% of it back the day i clollect.

Garrick, thanks for your post , of all the things i have ever read regarding punting strategies for me this is a HUGE eye openener, i can certainly see myself "holding" huge ammounts of money with various "teams/players" in the future.

Thank You

Problem is that multiple markets very limited on Betfair Easy, so glad to hear you will be consider sharing your wealth with other firms

dave

for my personal gain ill go anywhere. My only critisism of betfair has always been that the funds are "virtual" and it really take loads of discipline to avoid TILT.

I have actually in the past found myself " checking" what the hell i am doing as i was about to stick on a really big bet. A bet that were it for cash i certainly would have reconsidered.

It was a good point you made about a numbers game on the screen? I understand that only around 6% of punters actually make a withdrawal? Most just play out the balance.

Great Thread Pity Betfair Left our shores as with laying back you could do it with a click of the mouse here u have to beg the bookies and lay back criminal odds to them