How to bet the bookies

www.gusaworld.com/how-to-beat-the-bookies.html

How to beat the bookies


      The sport betting agencies have their own opinion about the odds that should be assigned for any sport event (soccer, tennis ... etc). If the betting agency make a mistake (they assign bigger odds then they should) and the punter sees this mistake, he can make profit.

      The correct odds to choose a card from a deck of 52 cards are 1.92%. As expected, the sum of the probabilities should be 100% (52 x 1.92% = 100%).To gain an advantage against punters, the betting agencies increase this chances, 1.92% becomes 2.04%. So, the sum of the probabilities is now 106.1% (52 x 2.04% = 106.1%). The difference between the probabilities offered by the betting agency and the mathematical ones represents the guaranteed profit of the betting agency no matter the final result of a soccer match (or other event). In our case this percent is 6.1% (106.1 - 100). This means that for any 100$ paid by the punters, the betting agency collects 106.1$, so 6.1$ guaranteed profit. In the soccer matches with 3 possible results (1, X

and 2) the betting agencies guaranteed profit is between 4-12%. Unlike non-online betting agencies the guaranteed profit is between 11-19%, we then add the tax of 15% applied to stakes.

      To calculate the sport betting agency guaranteed profit you need this formula:

1 / (odd / 100) = the outcome percentage

ex. 1
1 = 1.50 ; X = 3.30 ; 2 = 7.00
1 / (1.50 / 100) = 66.66 %
1 / (3.30 / 100) = 30.30 %
1 / (7.00 / 100) = 14.28 %

The guaranteed profit for this match is 11.24% (66.66 + 30.30 + 14.28 = 111.24 - 100 = 11.24). The above formula can also be used to transform the percentage into odds : 1 / (percentage / 100) = odd

ex. 2
1 = 60% ; X = 20% ; 2 = 20%
1 / (60 / 100) = 1.66
1 / (20 / 100) = 5.00
1 / (20 / 100) = 5.00

1 = 1.66 ; X = 5.00 ; 2 = 5.00

      If the odds obtain by him (after the punter calculations) are smaller than those offered by the betting agency, the punter should take full advantage. The sport betting agencies guaranteed profit depends on the tip of the bet (correct score, to score or not to score, pause-final ... etc), the number of possible results of any bet (type of bet). In the correct score bet the betting agency guaranteed profit can reach 30 to 60%. Punters that want to maintain this disadvantage at minimum heads for the 2 and 3 way bets (1,2 or 1,X,2 or 1x, x2).

      If the odds offered by the betting agencies are unfair, how can a punter make profit? How can i find out the odds for Gusa Mihai to win a tennis tournament? The answer for these questions comes in time by accumulating experience, by accumulating knowledge about your favorite sport, betting markets and the way that betting agencies establish the odds for an sport event. The good news is that the bookies (like punters) can make mistakes, sometimes huge ones, well informed punters can use this mistakes to increase their betting budget.

      Punters are divided into several categories, classifying them according to how they inform about their favorite sport. Some prefer a mathematical approach, based on previous results of both teams. Others spend hours every week looking for news about the two teams, including news about weather, injuries on both sides, team morale ... etc. Others rely on their own inspiration in choosing their picks. The last category of punters are those that pay others to think in their place, registering to a company or website that offer paid picks. The best way to choose your matches is what works in your case, an approach that will bring you profit. All these approaches have in common one thing, finding value in the odds offered by bookies, where the real chances (%) are higher than those offered by the betting agency.

      Many punters fail to appreciate the importance of value betting. Since the odds are only percentages, value bets are the only chance for you to beat 100% the bookie. Successful bets are obtained by understanding and using probabilities. Find out the real chances (percentages) of matches and you can find profitable opportunities in which a bookie has offered a higher odd than the one found by you as the correct one.

      The goal of any punter is to increase his betting budget. The budget may be described as a capital wich is set aside exclusively for betting. It should never exceed an amount that a punter can't afford to lose. To decide the amount of the budget that is going to bet, you must ask yourself one thing : IF I LOSE ALL MY MONEY, WILL THIS HAVE AN IMPACT ON BILL PAYMENT POSSIBILITY? If the answer is YES, then reduce the size of the budget, or in extreme cases, do not bet at all. Every time a punter places a bet, he plays a part of his budget, size that may vary or not depending on the preferences of the punter. As the stakes are smaller in proportion to the size of the budget, his impact will be smaller in case of a win or loss.

      For fixed stakes, each ticket is allocated the same stake, regardless the odds of that ticket. Many punters see it as a poor strategy and would prefer that the stake will vary depending on the final odd of the ticket. Percentage stakes is determined as a certain percentage of the current budget. Progresive stakes involves an increase or decrease after each bet, if the ticket is won or lost. The best betting strategy will be chosen depending on the attitude to make profit and the risk assuming by each punter.

So the value bet satisfies the elusive criterion:

M = P . C > 1

If you make it true for a fraction of the sporting events that are availabe for you to gamble, you are going to strike it rich. You will start making money and you will also be able to up the stakes and make even more money.
Sounds like an atomic chain reaction. When the atomic reaction is subcritical it dies down, when it is supercritical it goes whammmm.

Try.
Be warned though, the bookies are hardened pros.
Most of us study form in between baccardi glasses at our local. The bookies are pros.
If you have the tote against you it may be a little better -always assuming the existence of equivalent pricing systems between bookies and tote. But only a little better.

Last tragedy for forgetting this:
In June we had elections in Greece. It was a replay as we had elections also in May but with an inconclusive result that made it necessary to have elections again.
Bloke drops by my house and says "hey, they pay fantastic prices if the turnout is higher now than it was in May".
He adds "the people were indifferent in May, but now it's again a strong right against left contest and things are hot". This last was true and everybody thought of it as a hot political derby now, with strong opinions about the economy held by either side.
So the bet was placed, the election derby was indeed hot and the cons won by slender margin.
But the turnout dropped ! We lost - the bookies fav. (lower turnout) came true !
Some post mortem explanations were given, such as "election derby or no election derby, it's June and the seaside is more inviting" and some other more clever explanations.
But the bottom line is the bookies did their job more carefully and we were bitten.
So when you say "value bet" do some double thinking.

Buy a truncheon