the end and a new beginning

I am looking at the NHA website at some season stats. I am now going to go out on a limb here....


Within the next 3 years Muzi Yeni will be champion jockey, my reason is as follows.
2008 787 rides @7% winners
2009 1137 rides @ 9% winners
2010 1243 rides @ 10% winners
2011 1406 rides @ 7 % winners

this jockey is riding way too many horses to not be improving, his stats this season although they appear to be worse are actually BETTER, you see if Anton Marcus rode 1406 horses in a season his % would not be nearly 29% it would drop. It would have to, its like a newspaper tipster having to tip every single race, the odds are NOT in your favour.

I reckon Muzi needs 1 more season of > 1400 rides and then the winners will flow and all he needs to do is hit the board 20% of the time and he will be champion jockey.

This oke has the drive (and airmiles) i reckon he can do it.

The numbers say it all. For a while now the average number of starters in a race is 11.

So the natural odds to win is 1/11 or 9%
If you only ever ride 7/1 shots, after the markup percentages you are probably a 1 in 10 shot.
So far Yeni's needs to show he can actually do better than the dead middle average line.

The most worrying statistic he has to overcome is breaking his long losing sequences he tends to build. As hard working as he is, he just goes through periods where he can't make the difference. There was a time when if I saw Yeni on a horse that I wanted to back, I didn't mind. But now, and his numbers prove it, I don't think he's particularly a thinking jockey.

The other day Felix won on a maiden, and he said he had watched the videos of the horse's previous starts. With 1400 runs, has Yeni had time to plan a single ordinary race?

My advice to him, not that he asked lol, is build up some relationships with horses and trainers. Just riding for the race fee may be a reasonable strategy, but you cant be special riding too many bad horses either. Often I have watched a replay, seen a shocker going wide at the back or my worst tell...first horse beaten, and when I lookup who it is Yeni was a name that came up too many times. It's probably a function of riding so many horses that some have to be awful, but that is hardly championship stuff.

The current championship battle shows someone like Marcus winning sometimes when he shouldn't, and the same goes for Lerena. I think that defines a champion... When if you changed the riders around you would change the result.

I always say that the difference between the good jocks and great jocks is that great jocks can win on horses that should have not have won the race.
Nobody is better at this than AP McCoy.

I think muzie has a deal with the airways he must have enough air miles to travel around the word . and as far as winning the jockey champion ships I do agree could be another 3 years if he is lucky -however I must give him 100% for guts and determination some of the other jocks should take not -WELL done Muzie

MDK says Muzi is the hungriest jockey he's ever come across. - Don't think he meant food.

scotia Wrote:

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> I always say that the difference between the good
> jocks and great jocks is that great jocks can win
> on horses that should have not have won the race.
> Nobody is better at this than AP McCoy.


how can you possibly compare flat riders with jump riders?

I applaud what muzi (his agents) are doing. Many years ago when i was an agent, Tony was Chalie Van Boomas agent, they went down the road of "werideanything.com" and they pushed the 1300 ride mark for the season. Of course his % was rubbish BUT Charlie was now riding for anyone and everyone. And he was starting to get the better rides, unfortunately he hurt his eye and stopped riding.

I reckon Muzi needs 1 more season of "werideanything.com" and then he can lower his rides to circa 800 and aim for a higher %, of course that is assuming he is learning from each and every ride (i am sure he is) ALSO to achieve this he WILL need more supprt than an agent, but it can be done.

This oke is certainyl putting in the hours and we all know what Gary Player said about putting in the hours.

chicken 'n chips Wrote:

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> scotia Wrote:
>

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>

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> > I always say that the difference between the
> good
> > jocks and great jocks is that great jocks can
> win
> > on horses that should have not have won the
> race.
> > Nobody is better at this than AP McCoy.
>
>
> how can you possibly compare flat riders with jump
> riders?

To me working hard and having a talent are two different things, AP was just a classical example.

Dettori, Moore, Piggott etc

Local Strydom would be a good example.

I have been in racing since 1995, I have yet to see a Jockey come through the jockeys academy as an apprentice and win the Jockeys Championship. Is the Jockeys Academy not as great as it was? Are the youngsters not as good as the the Older bunch? Or are they not getting chances? Or is 17 years not enough time to go through the ranks and become champion?