(:P)Interesting EPL stats: week 16:D

“Do not put your faith in what statistics say until you have carefully considered what they do not say. (William W. Watt)”
“Statistics may be defined as "a body of methods for making wise decisions in the face of uncertainty." (W.A. Wallis)”

Interesting EPL stats week 16:

Game 1: Arsenal vs West Brom
Arsenal 2 Clean Sheets (CS) this season home and 13 goals in 7 home games. Arsenal won 7/last 10 vs West Brom, West Brom won 2 and only one 2-2 draw and 3/10 times West Brom did not score. 4 of ARS’s 7 wins was by a 2 goal margin and 2 was 3-1; West Brom only made 8/26 points away this season and has not been able to manage a CS away PREDICTION: ARSENAL WIN (3-1)
Game 2: Aston Villa vs Stoke
Villa managed only 5 goals at home so far this season, Stoke has had 4 CS away, Villa 2 CS at home and Stoke only 7 goals away so expect only 1or2 goals. Last 9 games head to head stats 5 of last 9 games has been draws also the last 3 games all draws, then 3 home games by 1 goal and 1 away win by 1 so margins small and 5/last 6 2or less goals. Last 2 games at Aston Villa was both 1-1 PREDICTION: -3,5 goals (1-1)
Game 3: Southampton vs Reading
Southampton this season 9/12 points at home, Reading only 2 points away so far. Both sides have scored in this encounter last 5 games. Reading won last 2 games away both by margin of 2 goals 3-1 & 4-2 Away team winning 3/last 5 and 2 others 1-1 draws... PREDICTION: Both Teams scores, +3 goals (2-3)
Game 4: Sunderland vs Chelsea
Sunderland 3 CSs home 9/14 points home this season , Chelsea 2 CS away. Last 10 matches between these 2 teams = no draws Chelsea winning 9/10 and has not lost away so expect Chelsea win. Last 4 Chelsea away has produced 12 Chelsea goals and Sunderland scoring 6 goals so could be high scoring. PREDICTION: Chelsea win (1-3)
Game 5: Swansea vs Norwich
Swansea 15/22 home points 13/18 goals home. Has been no draws in 6 matches with Home winning 4/6 & 3of4 being 2+margin, Swansea 3 CS in 7 home games, Norwich has won the last 2 games though but Swansea beat Arsenal last week 2-0 (and Norwich beat Sunderland 2-1.) Norwich has won 3 of last 4 encounters between the teams though winning team scoring 3 goals 3/4 last times the teams met. 4 of last 5 the home team won though so have to go with Home team and 3 of those was by 2/more goals so go home with 3-1 since only 2/last 6 losing got 0. PREDICTION: Lay Draw (3-1)
Game 6: Wigan vs QPR
Wigan not 1 CS at home. Head to Head 3 of last 4 home team won and 3 draws in last 8 games. QPR maybe not ready to win yet, not away so draw or home win here. QPR has made only 2points away scored only 11 goals in 15 matches PREDICTION: none (1-1)
Game 7: Man City vs Man Utd
City has 20/33 home points & 3 home CS. In 10 games there has been ONLY 1 draw between these 2 teams. 5 Home wins but 3/last 6 and 3/last4 away. Also has not been a draw for 6 games. Of the 10 5 have been EPL 2 home wins 2 away wins and a draw... City has 20/33 home points and 19/28 goals was home so prefers playing home.. . United has 18 away and 18 home points though so do not mind playing away... this is a derby of note so I am expecting close maybe by 1 goal margin... United knowing the importance with a 3 point lead would want to double the gap... City has a few concerns but United would want to draw at worst. Man Utd most goals so far in EPL by lots 37 but let 21 in City on let 11 in; PREDICTION: Man Utd win (1-2)
Game 8: Everton vs Tottenham
EVE & Tottenham same stats 1 home/away CS, 6/8+goal difference. Everton has drawn 7/last 10 games in EPL2012 4 of them 1-1 including last 3 City and Arsenal & Norwich all 1-1. Tottenham have won their last 3 games Fulham, Liverpool, West Ham after losing away 5-2 to ARS and 2-1 to EVE last 5 home games unbeaten though 3 draws and 2 wins... looks like 1-1 would be happy both sides. Head to head last 6 matches home won 4 games and 2 draws only last 2 of last 6 games both teams did not score so expect both teams to score and either home win or 1-1 draw. PREDICTION: Both Teams scores, value 1-1 (1-1)
Game 9: West Ham vs Liverpool
West Ham 14 goals in 15 matches (BUT winning 3-1 vs Chelsea last game) and 5 home CS, Liverpool only manages 13 goals 5 goals away so far. West Ham has 15/22 home points. West Ham beat Chelsea 3-1 home last week. West Ham beat Liverpool 3-1 last time they met, HOWEVER Liverpool has beaten West Ham 4/last 5 times they met scoring 3 goals 4 times and also winning 3-0 3/4 times... interesting... gut feel west Ham 3-0 since 5 home Clean Sheets and 3 vs Chelsea and Liverpool last game as well as Liverpool only scoring 5 goals away this season... Liverpool scoring 13 goals vs West Hams 14 but Liverpool letting 20 in vs West Hams 11 with 5 West Ham. Liverpool only 5/19 away points and 5 away goals all season Stats does not tie up making this a difficult one to predict PREDICTION: None (3-0)
Game 10: Fulham vs Newcastle
Fulham 4 CS home, 9 goals 7 games, Fulham beat Newcastle 6/last 10 times they met & only 1 draw and 6 home victories in 10 games Fulham has not won in 7 games?? Fulham has 4 draws and 3 losses last 7 games and lost last 2 home Newcastle won their last game BUT has not won 7 games before that 3 draws Newcastle and Fulham struggling but Fulham 4 CS at home vs Newcastle 0 CS away gives Fulham edge I think... and only 1 draw between them in 8 games and last 3 home wins gives Fulham my win & Fulham won 1-0 2wice last 5 games vs Newcaslte. Newcastle 4/14 points away no CS away yet Fulham 2-1 PREDICTION: Fulham WIN (1-0)
Game 11: Sunderland vs Reading
6 games between these teams and no draw yet. Last 2 games was 2-1 home team & last 4 games was a 1 goal margin. In 6 games 3 wins a piece, however Reading gaining upperhand recently (2007 so not "recently" enough) winning 3/last4 games HOWEVER of those 3 wins 2 home and 1 away with Sunderland winning other home one in 6 games home won 4 times and never a draw... Sunderland is above on log and has 3 home CS with reading 7 goals away in 7 matches and reading only 2 away points so far season wait for Southampton reading result game 3 1st PREDICTION: None(2-1)

Thanks Loopy.
I like the prediction Chelsea win (1-3)(tu)

Loops that must of taken you the whole day to work out...(tu)

gregbucks Wrote:

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> Loops that must of taken you the whole day to work
> out...(tu)


Bored this time of year at work mate with the internet at my fingertips so might as well do something I am very passionate about ... statistical analysis on sport (tu) ...would be interesting to see how that works in the beautiful (unpredictable) game (...

Tero Wrote:

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> Thanks Loopy.
> I like the prediction Chelsea win (1-3)(tu)

Spot on Tero and that was a pick at 16/1(tu)
English Premier League:
Results so far:
Wigan 2 - 2 QPR PREDICTION:
Swansea 3 - 4 Norwich PREDICTION: Lay Draw:)-D
Sunderland 1 - 3 Chelsea PREDICTION: Chelsea win (1-3)-
Southampton 1 - 0 Reading PREDICTION: Both Teams scores(td)
Aston Villa 0 - 0 Stoke City PREDICTION: -3,5 goals (1-1)-D
Arsenal 2 - 0 West Bromwich ARSENAL WIN:)-D
Man Utd 3 -2 Man City PREDICTION: Man Utd WIN -D
Everton 2 - 1 Tottenham PREDICTION: Both teams score -D
West Ham 2 - Liverpool 3 PREDICTION : NONE
Fulham 2 - Newcastle 1 PREDICTION: FULHAM WIN -D

Loopy, can I ask a few questions, if you have to reply it would be appreciated... (tu)
1. do you do this every week? and if so, do you do the same for other leagues? I've always had a hunch that this sort of analysis would reap better rewards in the Italian and Spanish leagues. That hunch has no real foundation, it is just because I have the impression the games are generally slower and more tactically based and in my simplistic mind process that equals easier to analyse and predict.
2. Laying a draw is not a bet I've ever heard of (though I keep my football bets very simple), what odds did you get? It sounds a very "brave" bet to me so hat off to you and hope the odds were decent (tu)
3. Strangely, Chelski was the only correct score I got right yesterday... my simple analysis gave it 1-2 but based on Sunderland's very poor form of late I added one to the Russians. Do you stick pretty much to your analysis or do you let personal hunch come into it in some bets?
4. How did you structure the bets, all singles?

Loopy- you are genius, I know you can ascertain the most probable result base on statistics. I'm sure you spent many hours to decipher and correlate data to come up with your predictions. I can imagine your spreadsheets with all the data will confuse most of us. I like your scientific approach of analysing information.-DX((

Englander Wrote:

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> Loopy, can I ask a few questions, if you have to
> reply it would be appreciated... (tu)
> 1. do you do this every week? and if so, do you do
> the same for other leagues? I've always had a
> hunch that this sort of analysis would reap better
> rewards in the Italian and Spanish leagues. That
> hunch has no real foundation, it is just because I
> have the impression the games are generally slower
> and more tactically based and in my simplistic
> mind process that equals easier to analyse and
> predict.
> 2. Laying a draw is not a bet I've ever heard of
> (though I keep my football bets very simple), what
> odds did you get? It sounds a very "brave" bet to
> me so hat off to you and hope the odds were decent
> (tu)
> 3. Strangely, Chelski was the only correct score I
> got right yesterday... my simple analysis gave it
> 1-2 but based on Sunderland's very poor form of
> late I added one to the Russians. Do you stick
> pretty much to your analysis or do you let
> personal hunch come into it in some bets?
> 4. How did you structure the bets, all singles?

Hi Englander,
1) I do this every week for the EPL funny not necessarily for making money but to do the prediction on a sports predictions free website called "SuperBru" I have done it every week for this purpose but thought since there is some guys on ABC that bets on Football (soccer) it might help some in there bets since I have noted that it helps me quite a bit in making predictions on EPL every week. As far as doing it for other leagues... very possible since the information is freely available by googling what you need... it is more so using what information you have gathered in a profitable manner since you know the saying

"“Do not put your faith in what statistics say until you have carefully considered what they do not say. (William W. Watt)”"

Strangely enough the Reading game I got wrong reading my own analysis posted earlier again I can understand the result, I just went the other way based on the rest of the stats on that game... some might have come to the correct conclusion reading those stats again...

I will post it here as a new Topic every week for EPL purposes and then you guys can see if it bears any fruit (tu)

2) Laying a draw is purely offering the bet to someone on a betting exchange i.e. Betfair.. if the draw was 2.4 for e.g.. it means for me to make a GBP100 profit my exposure is GBP240

3) personal hunches / gut feel has no bearing in my selections process purely since personally I am a firm believer in stats, however I do see the value that others have for this form on selection process but personally I feel overall in the greater picture after many years of "gut feel" the NETT effect is a lower strikerate on probability

4) I normally structure the bets on probability of 3 things... 1) Form 2) Intent 3) Value the weighing or scaling factor of those 3 things would then help in my decision of how much (or how little) I put on a bet purely based on it's probability to return vs the risk of failure so essentially a risk vs reward factor

Tero Wrote:

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> Loopy- you are genius, I know you can ascertain
> the most probable result base on statistics. I'm
> sure you spent many hours to decipher and
> correlate data to come up with your predictions. I
> can imagine your spreadsheets with all the data
> will confuse most of us. I like your scientific
> approach of analysing information.-DX((

Thx Tero, appreciated -D like I said to Englander I will post my EPL analysis here as a new Topic weekly (tu)

Loopy well done a weekly post will be great. (tu)

It just goes to show if you put the effort into any form studying there is good money to be made.

Thanks Loopy (tu) I should have got the "lay" answer, just rarely use BF for football. I often wish I had your attitude but I confess to not having the commitment factor required. I shall watch out for your EPL posts. If you have never done it before, might I suggest looking at the NFL (American Football), I think there is a stack of profit to be made in it for the pure analyst. There are of course nearly always surprise results but because there are so few teams, who never change, it is often far more consistent than football imho and runs to form much more. I find it an enjoyable weekly bet but, the way I do it, it is really for an interest rather than an all out commitment to win.

anybody can copy and paste.