(:P) Interesting EPL stats: Week 18 :D

“Do not put your faith in what statistics say until you have carefully considered what they do not say. (William W. Watt)”
“Statistics may be defined as "a body of methods for making wise decisions in the face of uncertainty." (W.A. Wallis)”


Game 1: Newcastle vs. Man City

HtH (Head to Head) Last 10 games between these 2 teams has seen City winning 8 and 2 draws. City won the last 5 and the last 3 by a 2 goal margin. Last time 05/2012 City won 2-0 away. City has 3 CS away consecutively in EPL (Wigan, Chelsea, West Ham) and the lowest goals conceded of all EPL teams 2013 - 14 goals against (30 goals for). Newcastle has 13/17 points @ home so no pushover @ home but scoring only 17 goals in 15 games of which 10 home not enough to trouble City defence. Prediction: City WIN (2-0 or 3-1 most probable)

Game 2: Liverpool vs. Aston Villa

Liverpool must be coming to form winning last 3 games in all competitions including 2 away and has only lost once now in last 8 games in all comps. Head to head stats is not too clear cut though 3 different winners the last 3 times these sides met but Liverpool winning 3/last5 BUT only 5/last 10. Of those 10 Liverpool at home 5 times winning 2/drawing2 & a loss. Villa also unbeaten last 4 EPL games 1win and 3 draws.(all low scoring 2/less goals). Liverpool has 4 CS @ home so far, Villa 2 CS away & 7/last10 games these teams involved in -3 goals, Liverpool perhaps edging it since @ home and winning last 3 games including 2/them 1-0. Liverpool scoring 9 goals in 8 home games only, BUT Villa winning only 1 of their 8 games so far away in EPL (2 draws) and only scoring 4 goals away EPL (lowest in EPL 2013 with Wigan whom they beat 3-0 last month Home) gives Liverpool the edge to win this one. Liverpool lost away to City 5-0 last time they played decent opposition away... 3 attempts for Liverpool vs. Aston Villa in Dec month Liverpool won (1/2/3-0) Prediction: Liverpool WIN

Game 3: Man Utd vs. Sunderland

United has won 8/last 10 (13/16 all time) encounters head to head losing 1 & 1 draw. 5/8 wins was only 1-0 though inc 3/last5 a 1-0 win to Man U, Man U only managing to score more than 2 once (2007). 5/5 games was -3 goals &4/5 was -2 goals & Sunderland has not scored vs. Man U 5/last5 so expect Man U 1-0/2-0 win. Man U EPL2013 has scored in 7/7 encounters @ home (2CS) and scored 19goals in 7 games @ home winning 4/5 games in all form of competition and 4/4 EPL prediction. Sunderland has only won 1/10 last games & 2 draws losing 7/last8 Prediction: United WIN

Game 4: Norwich vs. Wigan

Norwich is unbeaten now in last 10 games winning 6 (5 of them home) drawing 4. Wigan has lost there last 2 EPL away 3-0 (Newcastle & Liverpool). Norwich has won the last 5 home encounters on the trot now though (3 of them 1-0 and all 5 by a 1 goal margin ONLY conceding 2 goals in 5 home (Incl. Sunderland, Utd, Stoke, Tottenham, Arsenal) . Norwich has 4/6 home games CS and neither Arsenal nor Utd could score vs. them at home recently) & only lost 1 game at home this season (LIV 2-5; outside of last 10 games)). Head to head not s clear cut though these 2 teams has met 4 times for 3 draws 1-1, incl. last2 games 1-1 but 2/3 was away and the other home game Norwich won 2-0. Wigan has only scored 4 goals away EPL 2013 (lowest with Villa) Prediction: Norwich another WIN (2-0)

Game 5: QPR vs. Fulham

QPR have drawn there last 3 and has not won last 10 games drawing 5. 3/last 4 home games was 1-1 draw. Fulham has not managed to win away last 5 games drawing 4 away but scoring 8 away in the process scoring 2+ 3/last5 and only managed to win 2/last10 (both home) Head to head these 2 met 6 times Fulham winning 4 with QPR not scoring in 5/6 games. Only win for QPR a club friendly (2007) and these sides only met twice since QPR losing both EPL. Fulham only 7/22 points away but QPR only 7 in total after 16 games scoring only 5 goals @ home. Prediction: Fulham’s ability to score away and QPR managing 0 goals in 5/last6 games head to Head Prediction: a rare Fulham away WIN (0-2/0-1)

Game 6: Stoke vs. Everton

Stoke won 4/last 6 EPL games (including 3 home games) and 4/last 5 home games all by a 1 goal margin and 3 of them 1-0 and drew the other 2 only losing to Man U 4-2 away and Norwich 1-0 away last 10 games. Stoke is unbeaten @ home 7 games in EPL 2013 only allowing 2 goals in ALL 7 games & 5 CS @ home giving only 1 goal last 4 home games and leading CS in home & away EPL 2013 8/16 CS!! Everton also great form only losing 1/last10 games away to Reading but drawing 7/last10 incl. drawing the 4/last5 away (City1-1fulham2-2,Liverpool 2-2, Wigan 2-2) so both teams in form. Everton only 1 CS away(1CS home) so teams manage a goal vs. them in fact 0 CS for Everton last 10 games. Head to Head stats though Stoke winning only 2/9 games BUT also 2/last3 Everton only managing to beat Stoke 1/last 6 games & 3 draws. Stoke managed a goal 3/last 4 home games and Everton only 1CS should see Stoke at least 1 goal again, Everton might score 1 goal or not manage to crack the defence. Prediction: Lay Everton (Stoke 1-0 or Draw 1-1 low scoring)

Game 7: Tottenham vs. Swansea

Both teams has a high win ratio last 10 games winning 50% each Tottenham winning 4/5 80% Home & Swansea winning 3/5 (60% away) as well as 2/last2 away, Tottenham also winning 4/last4 home with 3rd highest EPL goals 29 (16home) Swansea 26 of which 10 away 2 CS away/7games Tottenham winning 4/last5 home only 1 CS and 2 losses 8 games home this year 4wins 2 loss2draw. Head to head 2 games only 1 draw 1 Tottenham win (2-1 home) and a 1-1 draw. Swansea 7/22 points away BUT winning 3/last 4 away in all comps (ARS2-0, New2-1, Liv 3-1) Only 1/last 10 Tottenham games a draw & 3/last10 Swansea a draw so 4/last20 these 2 sides played in a draw makes draw more unlikely than a 50% winning any side probability and with Tottenham winning 4/last 5 and 4/last4 home as well as Swansea not winning in this matchup yet it seems Home win more probable. Given the fact that Tottenham only 1 CS @ home Swansea 2/7 CS away and both Tottenham & Swansea has scored in 8/last10 games it seems both teams to score, home win. Prediction: Both Teams score (2-1/1-2)

Game 8: West Brom vs. West Ham

West Brom 18/26 home points and 6/8 home wins for 18 points but losing their last home and 2/last4 starting season 4 home game wins. West Ham has not kept a CS there last 5 away games EPL 2013 after starting 2 CS away and only managed to score 5 away goals. West Brom has managed 4 home CS EPL 2013 (Liv, Eve, Reading, Southampton) but 0 away so does seem to defend better @ home but closer look in last 5 home West Brom only managed 1 CS. Head to Head these 2 teams have drawn the last 3 matches BUT only 4 draws last 10 West Brom & West Ham winning 3 a piece (all by 1 goal margin) @ Home West Brom 5 games in 2 Loss, 2 draw 1 win only (2008-09-14 - and have drawn 2009-2011 1 away draw 2 home draws) and 6/10 games both teams scored. Current form West Brom lost last 3 (2 away) but won 4/last7(2home2away) and West Ham won only 1/last 4 away (Newcastle 1-0) Tough one... last 10 matches West Brom 0 draws, last 10 matches West Ham 2 draws (1/last5) so HtH stating last 3 draws BUT only 2 draws these teams last 20 games? HtH West Brom managed a goal 4/5 times home and West Ham managed a goal 8/last10 games &3/last 4 away games but only 5 in total away EPL2013?? Stats does not tie up... West Brom winning 3/last5 home no draws West Ham winning 1/last4 away no draws and West Brom 18/28 pnts 6/8 home wins... and HTH last 3draws?? Prediction: Prediction: West Brom to score (2-1/ 1-1)

Game 9: Reading vs. Arsenal

HtH ARS Won all 6 these encounters (3home/3away) Reading won 1in 7 home EPL2013 (Liv 2-1) 3 draws and managed 1 CS and scored in 6/7 home games. ARS 4/8 away CS EPL 2013 and has not manage to win away last 5 games all comps. 6 weeks ago these 2 teams met Capital1 Cup ARS won 7-5 away and only once in 6 HtH not more than 2 goals and ARS won by 2or more margin 5/6 times Prediction: ARS WIN 2 or more margin (1-3)

Thanks Loopy (tu)

Top notch Loopy(tu)
ATC
Norwich
Arsenal
Man City

Just bringing this back to the top of the forum for ease of reference Thanks Loopy (tu)

Bankers today...

United ... win
Norwich ... win

Not sure how different they would be had I not referred to Loopy's scribblings but I'll certainly get him a beer if by some miracle my miniscule trebles n ups bet comes up with a decent return -D

Newcastle v Man City - Man City 2-0 @ 15/2
QPR v Fulham - Fulham 2-1 @ 10/1
Stoke v Everton - Stoke 1-0 @ 7/1
Liverpool v Aston Villa - Liverpool 1-0 @ 6/1
Norwich v Wigan - Norwich 2-0 @ 10/1
Tottenham v Swansea - Swansea 2-1 @ 14/1
West Brom v West Ham - West Brom 2-1 @ 15/2
Reading v Arsenal - Draw 1-1 @ 15/2

Value treble... Stoke, Norwich, WBA

Englander i'm liking your reading prediction, Reading on a monday night is NOT the best venue for Arsenal to visit...

gregbucks Wrote:

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> Englander i'm liking your reading prediction,
> Reading on a monday night is NOT the best venue
> for Arsenal to visit...

Well, liking 1/8 is not so bad I suppose <

My soccer treble for today:

Cardiff City (-1) @ 9/10
Man Utd (-1) @ 5/10
Hull City @ 15/20

Works out to 4/1

gregbucks Wrote:

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> Englander i'm liking your reading prediction,
> Reading on a monday night is NOT the best venue
> for Arsenal to visit...


Arsenal have never lost at Reading. Just a couple of weeks ago they were 4-0 down and still beat them 7-5.

Results in: (4/6 not as good as last week)

Game 1: Newcastle vs. Man City Prediction: City WIN (2-0 or 3-1 most probable)-D

Game 2: Liverpool vs. Aston Villa (td)

Game 3: Man Utd vs. Sunderland Prediction: United WIN -D

Game 4: Norwich vs. Wigan Prediction: Norwich another WIN -D

Game 5: QPR vs. Fulham Prediction: a rare Fulham away WIN (0-2/0-1)(td)

Game 6: Stoke vs. Everton Prediction: Lay Everton (Stoke 1-0 or Draw 1-1 low scoring) -D

Game 7: Tottenham vs. Swansea

Both teams has a high win ratio last 10 games winning 50% each Tottenham winning 4/5 80% Home & Swansea winning 3/5 (60% away) as well as 2/last2 away, Tottenham also winning 4/last4 home with 3rd highest EPL goals 29 (16home) Swansea 26 of which 10 away 2 CS away/7games Tottenham winning 4/last5 home only 1 CS and 2 losses 8 games home this year 4wins 2 loss2draw. Head to head 2 games only 1 draw 1 Tottenham win (2-1 home) and a 1-1 draw. Swansea 7/22 points away BUT winning 3/last 4 away in all comps (ARS2-0, New2-1, Liv 3-1) Only 1/last 10 Tottenham games a draw & 3/last10 Swansea a draw so 4/last20 these 2 sides played in a draw makes draw more unlikely than a 50% winning any side probability and with Tottenham winning 4/last 5 and 4/last4 home as well as Swansea not winning in this matchup yet it seems Home win more probable. Given the fact that Tottenham only 1 CS @ home Swansea 2/7 CS away and both Tottenham & Swansea has scored in 8/last10 games it seems both teams to score, home win. Prediction: Both Teams score (2-1/1-2)

Game 8: West Brom vs. West Ham

West Brom 18/26 home points and 6/8 home wins for 18 points but losing their last home and 2/last4 starting season 4 home game wins. West Ham has not kept a CS there last 5 away games EPL 2013 after starting 2 CS away and only managed to score 5 away goals. West Brom has managed 4 home CS EPL 2013 (Liv, Eve, Reading, Southampton) but 0 away so does seem to defend better @ home but closer look in last 5 home West Brom only managed 1 CS. Head to Head these 2 teams have drawn the last 3 matches BUT only 4 draws last 10 West Brom & West Ham winning 3 a piece (all by 1 goal margin) @ Home West Brom 5 games in 2 Loss, 2 draw 1 win only (2008-09-14 - and have drawn 2009-2011 1 away draw 2 home draws) and 6/10 games both teams scored. Current form West Brom lost last 3 (2 away) but won 4/last7(2home2away) and West Ham won only 1/last 4 away (Newcastle 1-0) Tough one... last 10 matches West Brom 0 draws, last 10 matches West Ham 2 draws (1/last5) so HtH stating last 3 draws BUT only 2 draws these teams last 20 games? HtH West Brom managed a goal 4/5 times home and West Ham managed a goal 8/last10 games &3/last 4 away games but only 5 in total away EPL2013?? Stats does not tie up... West Brom winning 3/last5 home no draws West Ham winning 1/last4 away no draws and West Brom 18/28 pnts 6/8 home wins... and HTH last 3draws?? Prediction: Prediction: West Brom to score (2-1/ 1-1)

Game 9: Reading vs. Arsenal

HtH ARS Won all 6 these encounters (3home/3away) Reading won 1in 7 home EPL2013 (Liv 2-1) 3 draws and managed 1 CS and scored in 6/7 home games. ARS 4/8 away CS EPL 2013 and has not manage to win away last 5 games all comps. 6 weeks ago these 2 teams met Capital1 Cup ARS won 7-5 away and only once in 6 HtH not more than 2 goals and ARS won by 2or more margin 5/6 times Prediction: ARS WIN 2 or more margin (1-3)

United 3 up Liverscom 3 down at home.... bliss <