Consequences of jetlag and insomnia... probably a little long-winded, apologies for that...
R1 Anatalya makes obvious appeal but coming off a rest is not for me at the price. Rad Rock has a chance but I am not convinced by the form and the same can be said of Until We Dance, which in turn does little for Zara's Legacy's debut run when only 1 length ahead of Until WD, though she may well come on for that run. To add to the negativity, all of those mentioned, with the exception of Anatalya, don't have the best of draws. Most of the others though seemingly have precious little to shout home about but I will chance a small idiot e/w on Dude. Unfortunately, she has the worst of the draw but she has been running over further and 3/5 runs were in "wet" conditions and ahe was noted not enjoying the conditions on the first of those runs. She was 3/16 on debut though over this distance and with Muzi up may be worth a few rand. Selection... Dude x Anatalya x Zara's Legacy
R2 With Scoop The Pool on a 4-timer I'll chance Badger Lake x General Atso x STP
R3 Could well be a shock result race. De Kock's pair have to be respected, Lord Windsor comes back in trip, decent draw and Muzi up but debut was not great and 17 week rest, and Sip Of Champagne, well, we will have to see. Black Pepper has been slowly away on both starts but may be good enough even if repeating. Tullynally is a long time maiden but has run plenty of decent efforts... in top 3 4/6 on course, 8/9 at distance and 3/3 at c and d. Not well drawn but, for those who like place bets, around even money for 1st 4 seems reasonable to me. Burrwood was only just behind Tullynally last time but has yet to run at Scotsville. My final selection though is a bit of a semi-idiot e/w shout on Counting House. Trainer in cracking form, jock... hmmm.... but was on board last time when running creditably, drawn in the 1 box, second on only start on this course and comes back in distance after often being noted tiring late over 1200. Two idiots... very small on Fat Chance who, if you ignore the last run, was not beaten too far in the preceding three, at 50s worth a rand perhaps. Lisa's Choice was heavily backed from 8s into 15/10 fav on debut and then on the last run she was backed in from 33s to 11s. Implies there is some ability there yet to be seen on course. It may be tenuous but if you say she needed the run on debut, perhaps didn't like the soft going 2nd time out (plus was slowly away in a workriders) and then needed the run when returning from a 17 week break then maybe this is the day we see the improvement. Currently around 25s. Final selection with value (and greed!) in mind... Counting House x Lisa's Choice x Tullynally x Black Pepper
R4 Many of the field have recently run against each other with very little separating them, particularly in the races won by Lamorna and Nordic Dancer, both of whom contest this race. I prefer Lamorna, the useful appie DD takes a little weight off which may be crucial, trainer in form and and an ok draw. I've gone with Two Tone Rocka and Rashuli Breeze for the places but there are many in with a shout, in particular I was tempted by Ulwandle but I have a gut feel that she may prefer softer ground now. Selection... Lamorna x Two Tone Rocka x Rashuli Breeze
R5 Very open imo. Craig's Finding Neverland must have a chance with a decent draw and a very light weight. Indigo Child has been very consistent and won her maiden over c and d. Caviar has been favourite in her last three starts and not been out of the first two in 3 course runs. Drumadoon is on a 6 race streak of winning every other race, tomorrow if the sequence is to continue she will win. She is coming off a break though and that may just make the difference to her chances. Joyful Spirit has won her last two course starts easily but may be worth noting they were both on soft going and she has only one placing in 4 starts on good going. Lizzy Grey was 2nd on debut at this c and d but comes off a long rest. Finally, and at the prices my e/w selection, Wings over Skye has finished in the top three 4/5 on course and been running very consistently, is 0.5 kgs worse off with Drumadoon for a 0.5 length success. With Drumadoon coming off a rest and 12s as opposed to 11/4, I'll side with WOS. Final selection... Wings Over Skye x Drumadoon x Indigo Child
R6 Great Detail has not won when the going has not been soft in 15 attempts. Green Day has a fair course record and though he does not seem the most consistent of performers, I think he will prefer the better going and could surprise. Dynamic Star now has a much better draw than when beaten 3 lengths by Africa when returning from a rest and with this being the third run after that rest, I expect him to be a big runner. Happy Colours has another light weight but I am not convinced this is his best distance. Time for another complete idiot... Flavio. Recent runs have been poor but the last 4 have either been after a rest, on soft or over much further. Ignore the last 4 runs and he was only beaten 3 and 1.75 lengths for 5th and 3rd respectively over this c and d. Was not drawn particularly well in either race and now goes from the 1 box. Not the worst appie up giving the horse a very light weight, definitely worth a couple of rand at 50s. Final selection... Dynamic Star x Flavio x Green Day
R7 Act Fast x Racketeer Blues x Royal Zulu Guard
R8 Path To Travel x Danseuse x Euphoria
R9 Fairly open looking maiden. Badger Friendly could improve but only run over this distance was not awe inspiring. Cachasa's best run was over c and d but that was on soft and from the 1 box. This time Kentucky Guest gets that berth and must have a good chance at the distance. But, he has 1.25 lengths to find with Modern Spot from their run behind Kruger Millions over 1600. MS does not have the best of draws again, 9, but ran well from the worst draw 2 runs back at this course under the same appie. Not sure the drop in trip will suit MS but he is now 4kgs better off with KG and that may be enough to see him finish ahead of KG again. Crumlin is better over 1200 imo and despite the poor draw, Chippy might get Wildcat Rising into the places. Selection... Modern Spot x Kentucky Guest x Wildcat Rising
Be(s)t of luck to all (tu)
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