For anyone interested, here's some waffle...
R1 Difficult to see beyond the three market leaders and I will stick with the one with sand experience. Finishing well ahead of the others in this field who also "ran" behind Hypodromo, La Flamme was backed from 20s into 7/2 and ran well in finishing 2nd. Hypo has subsequently been well beaten on turf but the race had some very nice prospects. Like Hypo though, LF's two main rivals are trained by Spies which may have given him a good indication of their chances. Scarlet Moon makes her debut and appears well bred for the sand, Chambers takes the ride. Vee Eight has had the benefit of two turf runs and is also by Lecture. Selection... La Flamme x Scarlet Moon x Vee Eight
R2 Olivealice would not have to be special to win but as I often say, 2/1 for a first timer on sand with seemingly little else going for her is way too short for me. Added to which the stable and jockey don't seem to be in the best of form. In fairness though, there seems to be little else in the field. There are a few other sand debutants, none of whom give me any confidence that they will necessarily take to the surface in a big way and some are coming off a rest. Of them I would favour Visser's A P Amber with Muzi up and the stable possibly coming into some form but the horse has done little on the turf. And of those with course experience it would seem to be between Dothelocomotion who has not shown a lot and comes off a break, Never Feint who is a 21-run maiden but has managed one silver and one bronze in 8 distance attempts (5/21 top 3 on course and twice finished ahead of DTL) and Sharp Emotions who has 3rd run after a rest and has Brown up (over DTL) but has about 5 lengths to find on NF on their run behind Bezrin's Babe over this distance. Of the three I favour NF but 4s is hardly value even in this field for a long time maiden who in truth has shown little to date. And that leaves us... not having a bet! lol but I might do a Smith double in the first two races for interest. Selections... Never Feint x Sharp Emotions x Dothelocomotion
R3 On paper it appears to be a straight fight between Pay Master and The Great Caruso. Little between them on their run behind Laconic over 200 further, the latter now seems to have the best of the draw. But, that was Pay Master's first try on the surface and TGC does seem a little inconsistent, rarely seems to have two decent runs consecutively. Just a hunch really but I am going to go with Pay Master. For third, I'll trust in Capello Rapedo having had excuses last two runs and hope useful appie AA can find some necessary improvement. Selection... Pay Master x The Great Caruso x Capello Rapedo
R4 Plenty in with a chance and very difficult. Of Rugg's three runners, Brown has seemingly opted for Beepbeep based on the much improved last outing and that this will be third run after the rest and has drawn 1. That run saw him finish 1.75 lengths back, no less than 13.25 lengths closer to Boogy Boy than on his previous run. The more consistent of Rugg's runners is Miesque's Critic but this one is drawn wide. He also ran in the first of the races with Boogy Boy, beaten 2 lengths. MC has an overall 3kg pull with Beepbeep over the two runs. Rugg's other runner, Flying Cloud, should not be discounted either with two thirds from 2 runs over c and d and a decent draw at 5. Code Red is a big danger, he is 1/2 wins over c and d and also has a decent draw in 2. Leprechorn's Gift is an interesting runner, his Bingo debut was over 1000 which was much too short but the run may well have brought him on, he gets a good draw and he brings some very reasonable form from the Vaal sand. Trade Hall should also not be discounted from a good draw but has yet to really convince at the course. Mention must be given to the sand debutant The Living is Easy who is by good sand sire Mogok and runs for the inform Cliffie Miller with a light mass. A bit of an idiot is Globe Trotter. He has some useful form in his past and I had a little on at 100/1 when he ran third after they removed the blinkers. I notice the blinkers subsequently went on again and are now once again removed and following a rest he drops in trip. Last time over this c and d he finished 3rd at 10/3 and has 1 win and 2 seconds from 7 c and d efforts. Draw could be better but now 33s it won't hurt to nibble. A difficult race and I would not be that surprise if one not mentioned here wins. My final selection... Miesque's Critic x Leprechorn's Gift x Globe Trotter
R5 Looks to me like another shoot-out and again I think the Shams may again come out on top with Poweoftheflower getting the better of Ibhola. The latter did beat POTF last time out over 1400, is 4.5 kgs better off at the weights and has been treated much more kindly by the draw. But Ibhola has had a 10 week break since and may just need a run while POTF has seemingly been improving in his absence. The only one who I think might trouble the top two is the Shams other runner and sand debutant Fort Knox who could be nicely bred for the sand. If he doesn't take to the surface then I would expect Mr Vindaloo or Night Landing to take the trifecta spot. Selection... POTF x Ibhola x Fort Knox
R6 Jockey arrangements can appear very strange sometimes and none more so than here where Brown has opted to partner Kate's Emblem over Airani. The latter has been in good form lately and was only just pipped in a strong contest last time out. With 3 wins and 4 seconds from 12 c and d runs and a good draw of 3, all things being equal, he should at worst be contesting the finish. Kate's Emblem has a very good record with a win and a second from her 2 c and d runs and she has only run out of the top 3 once in 8 visits to the course. But she is up against the boys this time. Metro Man at his best would have a chance and is likely to be running on at the finish. Zuchetto has a 2.5kg pull with Airani for the 2.75l he was further behind C de Lago but his task is made no easier by drawing 10. Fayette was disappointing last time out, the blinkers are on but they have been tried before and seemed to have made matters worse rather than improve them. The one who I think could be the main danger is Kingofmountain who took to the sand well when winning his maiden at the 12th attempt (sand debut) despite stumbling. In his only start since he recovered from a slow start to be beaten less than 2 lengths and will quite probably prefer the extra 200. The 9 draw could be better though. Final selection... Airani x Kingofmountain x Metro Man
R7 Captain de Lago is a horse I will follow on the sand but despite the light weight, I think 1000 is too short for him. Varsity Star and Smart Sally are also decent sand horses but I think both may have been weighted out of it. Bomber Bill ran well having been off the track for over a year and may well come on for that run, Brown has opted for him over Boston Legal and I expect those two to be fighting out the trifecta and quartet places. Surging Secret may feel like a new horse with the massive weights she has been carrying greatly reduced and I think she will be a big runner but preference (and hope) is that stable companion Pisces Star will get back into the winner's enclosure returning to 1000. Selection... Pisces Star x Surging Star x Bomber Bill
R8 Pretty much a rematch of the race won by Wind At Your Back on 25th March and with so little between many of them it should be very close again. Looking at the Sudden Surprise race over 1200 first though, he won well and had WAYB (1kg better off for 2.5l) and Starfire (0.5kg worse off for 6l) behind her. Coming back to 1000 though makes Starfire a much more competitive opponent and WAYB finished very strongly last time, Sudden Surprise will need to be able to do the same. WAYB, Divide 'n Rule, Starfire, Debaas should all be thereabouts again and all have a chance. But looking for something from that race which might give one of them an extra few inches to get their nose infront I fell upon Swing Away and Road's End. SA was racing following a 7 week break and its possible that run may have sharpened him up a little. RE was reported not striding as well as being (unusually) slowly away, now 1.5kgs better off for 2 lengths he could easily turn over the form assuming he breaks better. Selection... Swing Away x Road's End x WAYB
R9 Despite a lengthy absence Jolly Along won his maiden well on his sand debut and will probably arrive a little fitter, must have a good chance of following up and is Brown's choice from the Rugg runners. But, I also like Rugg's Celestial Flag at a bigger price who ran a decent race behind WAYB last time out when having his third run after a rest. If he can repeat that run then he is worth an e/w nibble imo. My final vote though goes to She's Got Gears who will have to improve on her most recent runs but gets Muzi back in the saddle and they seem to go well together. Selection... She's Got Gears x Jolly Along x Celestial Flag
Be(s)t of luck to all (tu)
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