Tough card. Some waffle...
Win treble...
R1 Spritzer
R2 Admiral's Eye
R8 Blue Berry
R3 A poor and tricky maiden. Java Moon has a little form but has run poorly on both course visits (1200 and 1600) and finished behind On Your Bike over 1000 last time out. Rad Rock is 2/5 for top 3 finishes on c and d and is drawn 1. It is possible though that she prefers a little give in the ground as both places, and the only two times she has finished within 6 lengths of the winner, were in "wet" conditions. Dance of Light was poor last time out, finishing around 6 lengths behind OYB and was about 7 lengths behind Java Moon three runs back despite having the better draw (1450). Both those runs were at Clairwood though and in between she did run second over this c and d so it could well be she is a horse for a course. On Your Bike must enter equations as, despite being a 30-run maiden, she does occasionally go close, seemingly particularly for Chippy. But, she is 0/9 for top 3 on c and d runs. Ventura Highway improved 2nd time out and though she was 1.5 lengths behind OYB it is possible she will improve again. As an idiot, I think Splendour is worth a look. Finished infront of Rad Rock last time out and one length behind Rosie The Rebel who has beaten Java Moon (among others) by 6l (1000). Rad Rock had previously finished 2.3l infront of Splendour but on that occasion RR had a 4kg allowance. On the down side, she is coming off a rest. Selection... Dance of Light x Splendour x Ventura Highway
R4 ? Tevez likely but I won't be risking it.
R5 Another difficult race with many coming back in trip. Secret Pledge won her maiden from a similarly poor draw at this course and drops in trip but trainer form is not strong and her two best runs have been in "wet" conditions. Kingston Boy has been consistent and is 6/8 for top 3 finishes at the distance including 2 wins, finished second on his only run at the course after his debut and has a good draw. He has a 3kg pull with Wunderbar (was 2nd run after a rest) for 1.5 lengths behind Fire Curtain (others seemingly held) when returning from a rest. Assuming that brings him on it is quite likely the result can be reversed. Majestic Emblem was poor in his post maiden run and the mad dash reveals little for a race over this distance. Nomakhanjani has run well coming off a rest before and though he is 9/22 for top 3 places on course, he is 0/3 for c and d. Manjur has some ok form hidden away and his last run was one to take note off especially as Commodity Strike ran a very nice second at Clairwood on Sunday. Also has a silver from 2 c and d runs but not the best draw. An e/w option. A couple of tenuous idiots to consider... Craig's Cool Style looks well held but it is worth noting that he won his maiden on this course and that was his only run on the course to date. Special Henny is coming off a rest and he was beaten 4.5l by Kingston Boy two runs back. But, that was at Greyville and he has a 5kg pull. On this course he is 5/7 for top 3 finishes at the distance and overall he is 9/13 for top 3 finishes at the distance. He does seem to have struggled for form recently and indeed has run unplaced on his last two course starts but should the rest have rejuvenated him then he could run better than the price indicates. Selection... Manjur x Kingston Boy x Special Henny
R6 Several are coming off a rest, many of those who might not need a run are drawn wide and there are a few with Kenilworth form making the life of the punter even harder. Not easy and definitely not a race I can see one with an obvious chance. Nordic Jet ran well after a previous rest but was drawn 1 then and the 12 draw this time is a concern. On a line through Dynamic Star (over 1600) Henchman gives 6.5kgs to Lord Leigh for 3.6l, perhaps the drop in distance will suit LL more, runner-up in his only run at the distance which was also on this course whereas Henchman has only 4 top 3 finishes in 19 distance runs but, neither have good draws. Live Controversy has had a few short rests lately and coupled with a few poor draws has perhaps seen a lapse in form. He has a better draw here and a return to this c and d may help, won his only attempt at c and d, and has a bronze from his other two distance runs. Cunning Fox is coming out of the maidens and off a rest, no particular franking to the form and is not for me. Trendline I think probably would prefer a little give in the ground, he has only one win and three thirds from 22 runs on good ground. Taking it all, plus prices, into account I ended up on zero confidence with this selection... Live Controversy x Lord Leigh x Henchman
R7 Another tough one to call. I have only excluded Wynnholme's Star. Just concentrating on my first three... I'll go with Approach Me who has only run at the course (and d) twice and won one and was runner-up in the other. Awesome Beauty competed in both those races and should go close again and I'll go with Injaazaat for third. The latter would have got the overall vote but she is 0/3 on course and last time over c and d she was beaten 4.5ls by Approach Me and is only 2kgs better off. She has had three relatively poor draws in her three runs since a break and although she has overturned the form with AM the course form has persuaded me against her. Selection... Approach Me x Awesome Beauty x Injaazaat
Be(s)t of luck to all (tu)
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
Topic Author
