Flamingo Park Monday 6/5/13

Discuss Mondays card below..

R1-La Flamme
R2-Call for change & Ekurhuleni
R3-Fleche D'Or, Cider Apple & AP Amber
R4-Jack Dan
R5-Laconic, Campo de Santana & Desert Rat
R6-Tarteeb, Radiant Rock & Captain de Lago
R7- Sweet Latte, Sakkie Sakkie & Little Swan
R8-Maestrale, Equivalence & Swing Away
R9-Jolly Along & Sy het ratte

Best to all with runners and profitable punting to all the ABC clanners. (tu)

Race 1: Once again La Flamme is priced up as fav in this race, but odds on, not for me. She has had her chances 3 starts now but has been nabbed each time by possibly South Africa's best juvenile trainer, Corne Spies. The blinkers are fitted for the first time which may just help keeping her focused on the job in that final furlong. However, i'd respect the money for the Spies first timer Lilac Lilly, as they would have a line on their 3 babies that beat LF last three starts, so this money could once again be on the button. It does not stop there, LF was a strong fav in the market last time out against Scarlet Moon, but at the same time, stable companion Duchess Catherine was backed in heavily from 20/1 into 6/1. If there was really that much of a difference between these horses back at home, i doubt this money would have come. Natural improvement may just see this one right there in the finish, if not beating LF.

Race 2: Your fav here is General Custler, and to be honest, if it was 20/1 i wouldn't put a cent. I am not a fan of horses that have not run on the surface before, as well as Jet Master not being such a great representative on the sand. Call For Change is my fancy in this race. That 2nd to Maestrale was a good enough first effort after a 5 month break, and first run on the surface. That formline has already produced 1 winner from one runner. The runner that should be right there with CFC is Extreme Dream, only finishing 1L behind CFC last time out, also 3rd run after a rest. Spectrums always take well to the sand, and so Forest Spectrum should not be ruled out either. Ekurhuieni had dismal form prior to his last run over a shorter trip which seemed to suit. That was over 1200m and only tired late, the drop in distance to 1000m now, as well as the added blinkers, this one cannot be ruled out either. The first timer Dad's Approval cannot be ignored, being a filly by Miesque's Approval, even thou taking on the boys, does not have to be too special to feature.

Race 3: To all those that want to be touching numbers 1,2,3,4 goodluck to you all. In this race i'm going for the value, and my first selection for value is Reserved Lady (8/1). The drop from 1800m to 1600m last time seemed to have done the trick to show some signs of life for this horse. That day led from the front and tired late for a moderate 3rd. The drop to 1200m may just be up this fillies alley, and if Randall can maybe pull a "Catch me if you can" move here, she may just pull it off. 3rd run after a rest aswell and interesting to notice Randall has stuck with this for the 3rd time. Others to look at for value is improvement from Dothelocomotion. After a 7 month break to come and run 1L behind Never Faint was a decent effort, especially being reported as having a resp. noise. Flirtini from the Visser yard had it all to do from a widish draw last time out, when it was second run after a rest and against the boys. Back against the girls today, and penultimate form running on strongly over 1000m, today may be her day.

Race 4: This really seems a wide open contest. I'm not too sure about the drop in trip to 1200m and the blinkers being taken off Jack Dan. Zulu King bounced back to life last time out and can follow up once again here. Metro Man is ultra consistent, but has gone up 8lbs in his last 3 starts, and Muzi hops off to ride ZK. Space Girl clearly has her problems, but seems something special on this surface, even against the boys here. Code Red can also sneak into the back end of quartets.

Race 5: This race i see as being dominated by two runners. Beijing Olympics and Desert Rat, with a slight preference for BO. BO has won its only two starts on this surface impressively and is only carrying a light mass of 54kgs vs 58.5kgs respectively. This could possibly be the best boxed exacta play on the day.

Race 6: And now for an interesting race on the card. Many of these runners finished on top of one another, however the extra 200m in this race i feel is going to suit two in particular, namely; Giant Strides and Captain De Lago. GS first time out on this surface was doing its best work late over the 1400m, so based on that run shows he is looking for this added distance. The same can be said for CDL, all his starts have seen this horse running on at the finish over 1200/1400m, and finally has the extra furlong to have his say. A runner that has returned to life that cannot be ignored based on his impressive last win is Tarteeb. The unknown in this race is Radiant Rock, with just that feature run under the belt on this surface, but did not seem to stay that day over the 2200m, so today's drop in trip may see it involved in the shake-up, along with the ultra consistent Zuchetto, who i believe may not see out this extra furlong today, but worth including in the back end of quartets thou.

Race 7: Simple, i DO NOT want to know about Little Swan getting beat. Banker in all bets for me.

Race 8: An extremely open contest and the betting should not be looked here as guidance. I have made cases for each of 1,2,3,4,7. I think one would have to add all 5 to exotic bets. But the obvious roving banker here would be Maestrale.

Race 9: The 2nd most simple race on the card....FIELD.

Jackpot: 2,6 x 1,4,6,7 x 4 x 1,2,4,7 =R32

@Bushy n OR:

we seem on the right track (if racing not abandoned.... again!)


atc:

race 1 no. 9 flame

race 2 no. 2 call for change

race 4 no. 1 jack dan

race 5 no. 6 beijing olympics

race 9 no. 7 she's got gears

break a leg and best to those with runners!



(tu)

Code red to beat Jack dan

Nicaule ran 4th behind Abu Mashar last time out (only3.75 lbh) , today is 4 kg better off at 16-1 - you cant get hurt!

Fit to Flight
Becketts Park
Cider Apple

Alexander stable expect good runs from General Custer and Beijing Olympics
Include Radiant Rock in exotics

Winning Form & Magic Tips Best Bets - Flamingo Park



Race comments are there now

Great effort Bushy, thanks (tu)

When I do them I often get a little deflated that no-one makes additional points etc. Assuming you are the same (apologies if not lol), here goes... for R1 anyway

Until they show improved form I put a line through the Human and Lotz runners and in this case that reduces the field from 13 to 8. Gary's Gift looks more than a little held so the winner should come from the other 7.

Regarding the money for Duchess C last time, two important things to note for me. She was backed from 20s to 6s, the fact the support stopped at 6s indicates to me it was place and/or e/w money, thus not necessarily expecting her to win. With the support for DC the price on La Flamme drifted but she was then backed very late indicating to me they thought La Flamme would win and DC might place. 4 lengths is still something to find and Muzi stays on LF. I would be surprised but not amazed if LF was not the better of the two.

However, if we are saying Duchess has a chance on natural improvement then Fit to Flight must also enter the equation. Was only 0.25 behind DC despite being slowly away and was reported as running on whereas DC was reported as no extra, both were on debut. FTF gets the blinkers. And if they have a chance then the Visser runner, Miss Wildfire can't be discounted either. Looks well held on the run behind Vee Eight but reduced the distance behind LF by 4 lengths in the last outing. In addition she reportedly stumbled and finished only about 2l back from DC and FTF.

Excellent observation on La Flamme vs Spies and Lilac Lilly is by Lecture who is far from the worst sand sire on the planet. Also easy to say LF has finished second three times but the opposition in each instance has so far yet to set the world alight. Perhaps, and it is only perhaps, the form is not so strong as the 2,2,2 might imply which in turn obviously then puts big question marks against DC, FTF and MW.

Liquid Ice and Sheezabomb could be surprise packages, the latter at the prices holding a little appeal. Although soundly beaten on all starts she did come up against some fair sorts in the Cape and there is a hint of decent sand breeding in there and drops back in distance.

In conclusion, LF could win comfortably but I am just not convinced the form is that strong and thus she is absolutely no value imo. Your Spies argument is also quite compelling. If I can get a better price than 5/2 then I'll probably chance LL. If I can't then I'll probably do a small e/w idiot on Shezabomb with a "bomb running" being the likely outcome!

So... a Human/Lotz 1.2.3 it will be then < ()

Morning all, we only have 3 runners today. Kmb yard has a little niggle at the moment but all been treated.

Race 6 Cpt de Lago working well but race will tell.

Race 7 Bint Owee travelled well , work on sand in PE is good.

Race 9 Oh So Easy Ditto.

PE 2 will stay if they run according to their work.

Race 2 i like King kallis