Vaal on the Beach B)

Dev, when are these best bets done? Chazak, "Magic Tips Best Bets" unfortunately passed away after his run on Saturday and was scractched as such by Corne Spies on the 7th May at 08H19.

shrek Wrote:

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> Dev, when are these best bets done? Chazak, "Magic
> Tips Best Bets" unfortunately passed away after
> his run on Saturday and was scractched as such by
> Corne Spies on the 7th May at 08H19.


Same with Cavlitsa also scrathed..

.

Heres my selections

Race 2 - where eagles dare - place
Race 3 - Start your engines
Race 5 - Baron Zemo/Roaming in Rome
Race 7- Dolomite for a place
Race 8 - Danish/Planet queen

shrek Wrote:

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> Dev, when are these best bets done? Chazak, "Magic
> Tips Best Bets" unfortunately passed away after
> his run on Saturday and was scractched as such by
> Corne Spies on the 7th May at 08H19.


Publications come out same day declarations is done so it can sometimes be 5-8 days before scheduled racemeeting , that is Computaform , Sporting post , winningform etc
For example Computaform tipsters have only 2 and a half hours after declarations to price up and give their preview and tips before going to print

Blouperd Wrote:

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> shrek Wrote:
>

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>

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> > Dev, when are these best bets done? Chazak,
> "Magic
> > Tips Best Bets" unfortunately passed away after
> > his run on Saturday and was scractched as such
> by
> > Corne Spies on the 7th May at 08H19.
>
>
> Publications come out same day declarations is
> done so it can sometimes be 5-8 days before
> scheduled racemeeting , that is Computaform ,
> Sporting post , winningform etc
> For example Computaform tipsters have only 2 and a
> half hours after declarations to price up and give
> their preview and tips before going to print


Thanks, fair enough that is why I was asking, don't use the Winning Form so wasn't sure when these were done.

Wil be interesting to see how Spectroscope performs in the 7th.

Same horse caused a major upset at 50/1, two weeks ago

Hoping for a full house, velvet Verona, song of camden, avenue of gold(p),sparkling saphir.

Speed ratings for main contenders with previous Vaal Sand form –

This card is certainly a challenge…love it, need to be decisive today, especially as it appears to get harder as the day goes on.

Race 1 : MJP 1000m
76…HIGHLAND LAD – 9/2
59…WILD THING – 33/10
52…HIDDEN GUN – 25/1
Highland Lad put in a good performance on 14/3 at VS (comfortably beating Wild Thing and Hidden Gun), disappointing on turf since then and although PS keeps the ride this horse appears a better place probability than a win possibility. Wild Thing meanwhile has improved on turf, seemingly sufficient to win here according to the betting. LJE saddles half the field, and with SB on the expensive Tiger Territory there could be some loopy logic, frankly though, LJE stats at VS are not that impressive. Velvet Verona could be anything…all in all a tricky opener probably best left alone.

Race 2 : MDN-F 1000m
69…SHOW AND TELL – 8/10
48…WHERE EAGLES DARE – 12/1
46…FOR YOUR EYES ONLY – 33/1
Usual weak maiden field, Show and Tell looks the part yet not at that price for the win. 1+6 in PA.

Race 3 : MDN 1200m
75…OUR FOLLY – 5/2
73…SWIFT BOW – 4/1
68…MATCHLESS FLAG – 10/1
68…BANJO BAY – 5/1
67…GAYHURST – 8/1
59…START YOUR ENGINES – 14/1
A race to get into! Often throw out those drawn above 7 over this distance, however MvR/STP runners regularly manage to overcome poor draws so Swift Bow stays in. Our Folly has the figures and a good draw but his OXOXO pattern does not generate confidence. Matchless Flag can place again and Gayhurst looks the most likely improver from a really good draw this time.

Race 4 : MR 90 1450m
108...EUGENES – 5/1
107...CROWN HEIGHTS –7/2
104...HALLOWED – 4/1
100...FUNNY GLORY – 7/1
100...KEAGAN’S JET – 5/1
Tremendous run lto for Eugenes, Crown Heights very consistent whilst Hallowed can be expected to improve, think these 3 shall do here…hardest races coming up.

Race 5 : MR71 1450m
97…DISCO BOY – 6/1
94…WHERE’S MY CHOP – 4/1
87…BARON ZEMO – 12/1
84…VELVET JAR – 14/1
84…RULESOFENGAGEMENT – 33/1
82…ROAMING IN ROME – 12/1
??…SONG OF CAMDEN
Open, especially if the top 2 fail (always suspect of only 1 good performance whilst the consistent horse is poorly drawn). Sand newcomers Song of Camden and Stimulant can feature and old campaigners Bareback and Bownore can win again…one day.

Race 6 : MR96 1000m
103…BENBOW – 9/2
101…LA VOLTA – 15/10
..99…HANG FIRE – 11/2
..91…SECOND TYCOON – 7/2
MGA is the top VS trainer over the last year (22% wins + 54% places), however think La Volta is over rated on sand and certainly not value. Benbow is a good sand performer yet struggles to find the winners box. These two most probably for P6, banker Benbow in PA.

Race 7 : MR80 1800m
102…SPECTROSCOPE – 13/2
..96…HENRY HIGGINS – 2/1
..95…BERRYMILLER – 11/2
..91…SUGAR RAY – 10/1
..90…SILVER SPECIALIST – 10/1
..89…HUNTER VALLEY – 16/1
..??…WHITE TIGER – 4/1
Very open.
Suspicious of horses running a stand alone big figure (burnt fingers too many times before-possibly bounce theory) so Spectroscope is in for the P6 but not for the PA. Henry Higgins has been one of the most consistent sand horses over the last 12 months, however have a sneaky feeling his form may be tailing off a bit. Going with Berrymiller in the PA. Could not eliminate any runner for the P6 (not even Am. Gangster who won here twice last winter)…under these circumstances just have to go shortish - top 3 here and one outsider? (Pylon won this race last year…only similar credentials belong to White Tiger).

Race 8 : MR64F 1800m
84…ASK ME – 40/1
82…SPARKLING SAPHIR – 5/1
80…DANISH – 9/2
80…HEADS UP – 14/1
80…BERMUDA BOWL – 12/1
80…PLANET QUEEN – 14/1
80…PACIFIC DESTINY – 14/1
78…EMPIRE OF THE MOON – 28/10
Toughest race of the day…….bring the pin.
Probably Empire o/t Moon in the PA due to the Tarry factor. Wishing for lots of luck (note!) in the P6, shall go wide and will incl. the SDG coupling.


Ask Me for two wacky outsiders on the day…the other one is Bareback.

I was planning on playing my usual yankee but decided to play it a little differently today. My best bet on the card is Henry Higgins so have used this as a base for the bets.

@Englander,@Loopy, @Shrek, @Frodo - We either all in for a good day, or a rather crappy 1.

EW Doubles:

HH x Storm Surf - Win dbl paying 34-1, Place Dbl 3-1
HH x Benbow - Win Dbl 26-1, Place Dbl 11-10

Place Treble:
HH x Storm Surf x Benbow - 4-1

I have also punted each of the above on the nose.

shrek Wrote:

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> Frodo Wrote:
>

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>

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> > shrek, I agree 100% on Benbow (however Julie
> just
> > tipped it on the morning show - that must be a
> bit
> > of a concern my
> > money was on yesterday already.
> >
> > 2nd best for me for me is Storm Surf in the 4th
> -
> > competitive field but is best over this trip
> and
> > also good value (if one can still get it) at
> 10/1
> >
> >
> > A few wide open races including the 5th (where
> I
> > fancy a bit of Baron Zemo each way - better
> draw
> > and should be effective over this trip)
> >
> > Enjoy (tu)
>
>
> Frodo, that is a major concern, we might as well
> brass it now. <
>
> I also fancy Baron Zemo, included it in my PA.
> (tu) Disco Boy must be the interesting runner
> here with one fluent win over C & D but coming
> back off a rest.


On pure form Benbow should walk this race...but he is irratic!Hang Fire came back to best last run and even thou up in class is a full 7kgs lighter than last run.will go very close here!

The Happy Horseplayer Wrote:

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> Speed ratings for main contenders with previous
> Vaal Sand form –
>
> This card is certainly a challenge…love it, need
> to be decisive today, especially as it appears to
> get harder as the day goes on.
>
> Race 1 : MJP 1000m
> 76…HIGHLAND LAD – 9/2
> 59…WILD THING – 33/10
> 52…HIDDEN GUN – 25/1
> Highland Lad put in a good performance on 14/3 at
> VS (comfortably beating Wild Thing and Hidden
> Gun), disappointing on turf since then and
> although PS keeps the ride this horse appears a
> better place probability than a win possibility.
> Wild Thing meanwhile has improved on turf,
> seemingly sufficient to win here according to the
> betting. LJE saddles half the field, and with SB
> on the expensive Tiger Territory there could be
> some loopy logic, frankly though, LJE stats at VS
> are not that impressive. Velvet Verona could be
> anything…all in all a tricky opener probably
> best left alone.
>
> Race 2 : MDN-F 1000m
> 69…SHOW AND TELL – 8/10
> 48…WHERE EAGLES DARE – 12/1
> 46…FOR YOUR EYES ONLY – 33/1
> Usual weak maiden field, Show and Tell looks the
> part yet not at that price for the win. 1+6 in
> PA.
>
> Race 3 : MDN 1200m
> 75…OUR FOLLY – 5/2
> 73…SWIFT BOW – 4/1
> 68…MATCHLESS FLAG – 10/1
> 68…BANJO BAY – 5/1
> 67…GAYHURST – 8/1
> 59…START YOUR ENGINES – 14/1
> A race to get into! Often throw out those drawn
> above 7 over this distance, however MvR/STP
> runners regularly manage to overcome poor draws so
> Swift Bow stays in. Our Folly has the figures and
> a good draw but his OXOXO pattern does not
> generate confidence. Matchless Flag can place
> again and Gayhurst looks the most likely improver
> from a really good draw this time.
>
> Race 4 : MR 90 1450m
> 108...EUGENES – 5/1
> 107...CROWN HEIGHTS –7/2
> 104...HALLOWED – 4/1
> 100...FUNNY GLORY – 7/1
> 100...KEAGAN’S JET – 5/1
> Tremendous run lto for Eugenes, Crown Heights
> very consistent whilst Hallowed can be expected to
> improve, think these 3 shall do here…hardest
> races coming up.
>
> Race 5 : MR71 1450m
> 97…DISCO BOY – 6/1
> 94…WHERE’S MY CHOP – 4/1
> 87…BARON ZEMO – 12/1
> 84…VELVET JAR – 14/1
> 84…RULESOFENGAGEMENT – 33/1
> 82…ROAMING IN ROME – 12/1
> ??…SONG OF CAMDEN
> Open, especially if the top 2 fail (always suspect
> of only 1 good performance whilst the consistent
> horse is poorly drawn). Sand newcomers Song of
> Camden and Stimulant can feature and old
> campaigners Bareback and Bownore can win
> again…one day.
>
> Race 6 : MR96 1000m
> 103…BENBOW – 9/2
> 101…LA VOLTA – 15/10
> ..99…HANG FIRE – 11/2
> ..91…SECOND TYCOON – 7/2
> MGA is the top VS trainer over the last year (22%
> wins + 54% places), however think La Volta is over
> rated on sand and certainly not value. Benbow is a
> good sand performer yet struggles to find the
> winners box. These two most probably for P6,
> banker Benbow in PA.
>
> Race 7 : MR80 1800m
> 102…SPECTROSCOPE – 13/2
> ..96…HENRY HIGGINS – 2/1
> ..95…BERRYMILLER – 11/2
> ..91…SUGAR RAY – 10/1
> ..90…SILVER SPECIALIST – 10/1
> ..89…HUNTER VALLEY – 16/1
> ..??…WHITE TIGER – 4/1
> Very open.
> Suspicious of horses running a stand alone big
> figure (burnt fingers too many times
> before-possibly bounce theory) so Spectroscope is
> in for the P6 but not for the PA. Henry Higgins
> has been one of the most consistent sand horses
> over the last 12 months, however have a sneaky
> feeling his form may be tailing off a bit. Going
> with Berrymiller in the PA. Could not eliminate
> any runner for the P6 (not even Am. Gangster who
> won here twice last winter)…under these
> circumstances just have to go shortish - top 3
> here and one outsider? (Pylon won this race last
> year…only similar credentials belong to White
> Tiger).
>
> Race 8 : MR64F 1800m
> 84…ASK ME – 40/1
> 82…SPARKLING SAPHIR – 5/1
> 80…DANISH – 9/2
> 80…HEADS UP – 14/1
> 80…BERMUDA BOWL – 12/1
> 80…PLANET QUEEN – 14/1
> 80…PACIFIC DESTINY – 14/1
> 78…EMPIRE OF THE MOON – 28/10
> Toughest race of the day…….bring the pin.
> Probably Empire o/t Moon in the PA due to the
> Tarry factor. Wishing for lots of luck (note!) in
> the P6, shall go wide and will incl. the SDG
> coupling.
>
>
> Ask Me for two wacky outsiders on the day…the
> other one is Bareback.


Very good analysis as always (tu)- just a note Bareback is a scratching; my take on it:

R1: Agreed on Highland Lad - had a good run on the sand (finishing more than 5 lenghts in front of Wild Thing) - definite each way chance with Striker - Velvet Verona obvious danger (IF he takes to the sand) after a good run in a KZN feature.

R2: Hard to look pass Show and Tell in a very weak field; Copper Gaia showed lots of early pace on the weekend (finishing in front of Where Eagles Dare) so could place if acting on the sand

R3: Quite open imo - Gayhurst showed pace from a wide draw over 1450m, so could prefer this trip and is a must PA inclusion for me from pole position; Our Folly has finished in front of G last time they met, but as THH points out, not the most consistent, Banjo Bay placed last time, but not the strongest form imo; Swift Bow a filly taking on the boys, but if drawn better, I would have made her the one to beat; very good last run (ran a faster time than Solarium carrying 4 kg's more than S :), so definite inclusion despite the draw; those are the principles imo

R4: Very competitive; the value imo could lie with Memghar - jumps from pole posititon and now gets 4kg's off courtesy of capable apprentice Penny, collatateral form shows that he should be right there at the weights - only slight concern is if he gets the 1450, but at 14/1 I think he can't be ignored; also Storm Surf looks sure to be competitve in his 3rd run after a rest over a trip he has won over twice before; most of the others (bar perhaps Mabuko Spirit - should till need a run, Speed Keeper - maybe past his best? and To Remember - off form) must have chances as well

R5: Another difficult race imo; Song of Camden very consistent, but tries the sand and has a big weight, so certainly beatable imo, Where's My Chop has been whacked by the handicapper, has never won over this trip and has a wide draw to boot, so not for me; Baron Zemo nicely drawn and enjoys the sand; definite each way chance imo; Disco Boy won well over this trip but has been given 7 points for that win;should still be competitive here; Stimulant tries the sand, so who knows; another roughie who could upset imo is Son of the Burg - coming back from a rest but has come down in the ratings and is effective over this trip

R6: A few scratchings have made it easier for Benbow imo, hasn't won for a while but really looks the part to me; La Volta imo has had a heavy campaign and could be looking for a rest, and with Second Tycoon and Hang Fire also being held by B on the Across the Ice form, I still think B is good value

R7: Another competitve handicap; imo Spectroscope will be even better over the 1800 and is the right one from a good draw, Henry Higgins the only real danger, but there are a couple of 'funnies' - White Tiger could feature if he takes to the sand; Blue Concorde should now start improving and could make the quartets pay along with Aceinthehole, who is way out at the weights, but may also be a different proposition on the sand; imo Berrymiller could be stretched over the 1800 and I think Silver Specialist (break a leg, Elvis) could finish in front of him this time, but both look held by Spectroscope imo

R8: Very weak fillies and mares handicap to close; Danish returns to the sand where her rating is much higher than on the turf - has won on the surface so must have chance from a nice draw; Empire of the Moon looks an obvious inclusion with Sparking Saphir; for a roughie I like the nicely bred Tizasmartdollar; could be improving and may get much closer to EotM at the weights - can't really see anything else :S

Enjoy (tu)