Kenilworth Tuuesday 14/5/13

zaeem Wrote:

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> hibernia Wrote:
>

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>

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> > 200 favourites have wonn from 558 races 35.8%
> the
> > highest win rate in the country
>
>
> what is the benchmark stat for favourites
> winning.there can never be an answer to that so
> I'm suggesting that that stat is neither here nor
> there.

Just some information regarding Kenilworth RACE 1 January 2013 - April 2013 and Favourites.

2 Jan 2013 - 1st SOVEREIGNS CAPTAIN (Snaith) 5/1 FAV ROYAL VAR 4th 11/10
5 Jan 2013 - 1st TSARINA (Kruyer) 10/1 FAV SURFER GIRL 4th 11/20
9 Jan 2013 - 1st FLAME OF AFRICA (Kannemeyer) 16/1 FAV FINNIGAN 2nd 8/10
12 Jan 2013 - 1st ESTIVATION (Bass) 5/2 FAV ESTIVATION 1st 5/2
16 Jan 2013 - 1st ACE ANTONIUS (Marshall) 4/1 FAV KONO 2nd 28/10
19 Jan 2013 - 1st IN TRIBUTE (Govender) 7/10 FAV INTRIBUTE 1st 7/10
26 Jan 2013 - 1st PURE POWER (Bass) 11/2 FAV KITTI CAT 5th 5/1
2 Feb 2013 - 1st VARIKATE (Snaith) 7/2 FAV VARIKATE 1st 7/2
6 Feb 2013 - 1st JUDDERING ANGEL (Ramsden) 40/1 FAV MATADOR IN RED (AUS) 3rd 18/10
13 Feb 2013 - 1st FLYING ALLY (Bass) 40/1 FAV PEGWELL BAY 9th 9/10
20 Feb 2013 - 1st RED TRACTOR (Crawford) 25/1 FAV ZAMBEZI TORRENT 2nd 15/10
23 Feb 2013 - 1st DOMANI (Puller) 14/1 FAV ROYAL VAR 6th 14/10
13 Mar 2013 - 1st SUNDAY SUN (Ennion) 7/2 FAV MATADOR IN RED (AUS) 4th 15/10
20 Mar 2013 - 1st KITTI CAT (Kannemeyer) 8/1 FAV TSOTSOMA 4th 5/2 DARLING MOON 3rd 40/1
27 Mar 2013 - 1st KEEN ON MAGIC (Hodgson) 11/1 FAV TIGER ISLAND 3rd 7/2
01 Apr 2013 - 1st KREMLIN CAPTAIN (Kannemeyer) 15/10 FAV KREMLIN CAPTAIN 1st 15/10
06 Apr 2013 - 1st ICY WINTER AIR (Ramsden) 4/1 FAV DARLING MOON 2nd 7/2
13 Apr 2013 - 1st TRIBUTARY (Kannemeyer) 2/1 FAV MISS JAMIE 4th 16/10
20 Apr 2013 - 1st WHEREDOWEGO (Marshall) 16/10 FAV WHEREDOWEGO 1st 16/10
24 Apr 2013 - 1st MOULIN ROYALE (Kruyer) 2/1 FAV MOULIN ROYALE 1st 2/1
27 APR 2013 - 1st SECRET COMMAND (Kruyer) 5/2 FAV SECRET COMMAND 1st 5/2

7/21 FAV winning the 1st race at Kenilworth which is 33.33% of the time. Kannemeyer and Kruyer have good strike rates in the first. Outsider overdue or perhaps another FAV. All stats... Hope this helps... Above stat is on the button (35.8% or 200 / 558)

Will be going for this 4 today
Race 3 bedafay
Race 5 Varikate
Race 6 Villa de largo
Race 7 Lord Jonathan

scratchings plse

Selections for Kenilworth
Rce 1
(5) Darling Moon

Rce 2
(5) Lets Party (7) Nordic Warrior

Rce 5
(7) LIFES DESIGN

Rce 6
(6) Dressed In Cotton

Rce 7
(4) Golden Dane (2) Lord Jonathan

Rce 8
(2) Johnny Rockets

SCRATCHINGS:

1 14 Lizetti off feed 08h55 14-MAY-13 Ricardo
1 11 King's Summit Coughing 07h56 14-MAY-13 C Spies
2 8 Oreo Shake Shin-sore 16h38 09-MAY-13 Justin Snaith
4 7 Royal Adelaide Not eating up 07h28 14-MAY-13 Riaan Van Reene
8 8 Henry The Fourth off feed 08h55 14-MAY-13 Ricardo

RESERVE RUNNERS:


JOCKEY CHANGES:

1 12 Leave Me Never To Be Ridden By: K Teetan 11h31 14-MAY-13 Clerk Of Scales

EQUIPMENT CHANGES:

1 4 Cosmonauta Blinkers On 12h24 13-MAY-13 Piet Steyn
3 6 Lady At The Helm Blinkers Off 13h09 13-MAY-13 J W McDonald
4 5 Legal Trip Blinkers On 10h14 13-MAY-13 Candice
5 2 Money Surger Blinkers On 12h24 13-MAY-13 Piet Steyn
7 6 League Of Honour Blinkers On 12h24 13-MAY-13 Piet Steyn

OWNER/COLOUR CHANGES:

Race 3 No: 14 Young Duchess, change of ownership and colours Messrs John T Freeman & B Kantor
Yellow, royal blue epaulettes, yellow sleeves and cap NHA

OTHER CHANGES:

Race 3 No 7 Conny Bonny - Steels in front / unshod behind M Stewart

ADDITIONAL FORM & CHANGES:


UNRACED IN P6 AND JACKPOT:

Race No 3, No 6, Lake Sally
Race No 3, No 6, Ze Evah

GENERAL INFORMATION:

Weather:

@08h00: Clear skies, no wind; cloud cover & S/E wind forecast (head wind); @12h00: ; @16h00:
RAIN 24 HOURS: Nil, RAIN 7 DAYS: Nil, PENETROMETER READING: Average 22 (Straight 21; Turn 22)
IRRIGATION 24 HOURS: Nil, IRRIGATION 7 DAYS: Nil
TRACK CONDITION: , FALSE RAIL POSITION: Summer Course: 4m

Kenilworth
Going Good
False Rail (m) 4.0
Penetrometer 22.0
Weather Fine
Wind Head wind
Rainfall (mm) 24 hours - 0.0
7 days - 0.0
Jockeys
Not Riding Glen Hatt

Scratched
Race Number - Name
1 11 - KING'S SUMMIT
14 - LIZETTI
2 8 - OREO SHAKE (AUS)
4 7 - ROYAL ADELAIDE
8 8 - HENRY THE FOURTH


Equipment Changes
Race Number - Change
1 4 - With Blinkers
3 6 - No Blinkers
4 5 - With Blinkers
5 2 - With Blinkers
7 6 - With Blinkers
Shoe Changes
Race Number Change
3 7 Steel Front
Unshod Rear
Jockey Changes
Race Number - Jockey
1 12 - Karis Teetan
Other Info
Race Number Change
3 12 1st Timer
3 13 1st Timer

Morning

I will be trying this PA: 1 * 3 / 3 * 10 / 5 / 9 / 2 * 4 / 3 * 4 * 7 / 2 * 7 * 14 (R72)

Best Outdiser Race 6) Howdoulikemenow (4) EW

All the best to all Clanners with runners.

Happy punting

Unless proven otherwise... The 1st Race is interesting. Same Trainer rarely wins two 1st races in a row and the last was won by RAMSDEN and HATT. So I'm cancelling all the 1st timers and all the RAMSDEN runners. For me it's between the BASS runners and the KANNEMEYER runners which are 1st timers so they out. That leaves me with KRUYER who has no runners and SNAITH. On statistics purely it's either DARLING MOON 12/10 or POPULAR BLUES 50/1. Good punting all.

Thanks for the scratchings.

Fifty2One Wrote:

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> Unless proven otherwise... The 1st Race is
> interesting. Same Trainer rarely wins two 1st
> races in a row and the last was won by RAMSDEN and
> HATT. So I'm cancelling all the 1st timers and all
> the RAMSDEN runners. For me it's between the BASS
> runners and the KANNEMEYER runners which are 1st
> timers so they out. That leaves me with KRUYER who
> has no runners and SNAITH. On statistics purely
> it's either DARLING MOON 12/10 or POPULAR BLUES
> 50/1. Good punting all.


Didnt Icy Winter Air run a place in a graded race in Durban the other day? That will make Darling Moon the one to beeat and the 1st timers will have to be above average to beat this one imo

PeeKay Wrote:

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> Dont leave Pirate Flag out of anything today in
> the last race


Must agree,I've been waiting for this..and now Byleveld is not steering I'm even happier.
10/1 with uk bookies

hi all

just read G Hatt not riding today.
whos riding Petra in race 5????

thanx