Poor Turnout Derby and Oaks (td)

Not the thread but here goes
Silvano's Jet the derby winner?

I am looking forward to seeing What a Winter destroy his rivals.

pirates Wrote:

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> announce it earlier?they should only be nominating
> for the first time when it is announced ...no race
> in the world is done the way the july is


My approach would be the opposite...announce the field early to increase betting turnover...prevent people from losing their money in cold blood...and allow those borderline horses to know their fate...I cannot understand why the final field has not been announced...unless they waiting for this weekends results.....

With gothic not taking his place in the derby here, is he guaranteed a place in the july handicap based on his second to wiley hall? I imagine that is the logic behind the connections not accepting to run here, apart from the wide draw that it wouldve had here.

Thor Wrote:

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> With gothic not taking his place in the derby
> here, is he guaranteed a place in the july
> handicap based on his second to wiley hall? I
> imagine that is the logic behind the connections
> not accepting to run here, apart from the wide
> draw that it wouldve had here.


I would think so as the Derby often produces July winners and placers - I recall the year Seal won and that was regarded as a weak field and English Garden(placed 2nd) ran a cracker in the July - Pomodoro, Grey's Inn, PJ, Smanje Smanje ,Yard-Arm etc are all horses that have run well/contested the Derby and then the July (not always in the same year).

Mr H the main reason these horses do well in the July is because they stay...when last did a horse suspect over the distance win the big one...too many trainers have made that mistake...I suspect that was one of the reasons why V was scratched.

anyone think seal could be a dark horse?

Great to see What A Winter is turning up for his Pinnacle entry (tu)

aye

gregbucks Wrote:

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> anyone think seal could be a dark horse?


and this aye

by Tipster aka David Thiselton

Capetown Noir has been confirmed a Vodacom Durban July runner by Dean Kannemeyer and will avoid the Betting World Derby at Clairwood this Sunday, while two other July contenders Gothic and Wild One will also bypass the race.



Kannemeyer’s decision to run Capetown Noir in the big one was made easier by the handicappers dropping him three points to 107.



The handicappers could not ignore that the Western Winter colt had been beaten twice by Vercingetorix, so their decision was unsurprising.



However, there are some that doubt Capetown Noir’s stamina capacity.



Western Winter is yet to produce a July winner, but has gone close with the likes of 2002 runner up Yard-Arm, 2004 fourth-placed Reveille Boy, who went on to win the Gold Cup, 2005 fourth-placed Lion Tamer and in 2006 he had two sons within 0,35 lengths of the winner, third-placed Jagged Ice and tie fourth-placed Natural Selection.



The former Champion stallion generally imparts plenty of speed.



Furthermore, the progeny of Capetown Noir’s dam have tended to be best up to a mile.



On the other hand his dam is by stamina influence Fort Wood.



Karl Neisius is reportedly convinced he will stay the trip and having ridden him to victory in the Investec Cape Derby over 2000m and to a narrow third in the Daily News 2000 he is well qualified to judge.

.

There is no doubting Capetown Noir’s class and he is currently the 5-1 joint-favourite with Betting World.

Trainer Kumaran Naidoo inherited Gothic a week-and-a-half after he had finished a 0,5 length second to Wylie Hall in the Grade 1 SA Derby.



Naidoo was impressed with that run, pointing out that he had “done it the hard way” and still stayed all the way to the line.



Wyle Hall then franked the form by finishing a 0,25 length fourth in the Grade 1 Daily News 2000.



Gothic is currently still in Johannesburg at Naidoo’s satellite yard and will arrive at Summerveld this week.



Naidoo said that due to the change of training regime and feed etc the yard had not had the necessary time to run the Silvano gelding in the normal pre-July three-year-old races like the Daily News.



He said, “He has come really well now and we don’t want to just run him for the sake of it. He is going to have a proper gallop at the July Gallops. It won’t just be a canter like is normally the case.”



Naidoo is not sure yet who will ride Gothic, but is trying to book a top jockey.



Gothic will be 3kg under sufferance in the Vodacom Durban July according to official merit ratings and has consequently been made a 50-1 shot by Betting World.



Trainer Jeff Freedman was philosophical about Wild One’s chances of getting into the big race.



The Mogok gelding is a borderline case as he was 23rd on the last July log.



This horse has plenty of ability but has been undone by bad draws, bad luck and a lack of maturity.





In his last start in the Daily News, he finished an eye catching sixth, despite having had to be rushed around horses coming up the hill.



The latter tactic would have seen a lesser horse fading away in the closing stages, but in his case he was doing his best work late, a measure of his class.



Freedman said, “The July is only one race and if he doesn’t get in we will just map out a new career for him.”



Wild One is quoted at 50-1 by Betting World.

bY DAVID THISELTON

The Mike de Kock team are confident of a good run from Patriotic Rebel in the Grade 2 Betting World Derby over 2400m at Clairwood on Sunday and assistant trainer Nathan Kotzen made him the yard’s best runner on the card.



De Kock said he had liked what he had seen of this Stronghold gelding before his unplaced run in the Grade 1 Daily News 2000.



That was his second run after a rest and gelding and might have come too soon after his unplaced effort behind Variety Club over the too sharp 1400m, which was his first run for the De Kock yard.



Patriotic Rebel was always seen to be running on strongly during his Cape Town career, including when a 1,1 length fourth in the Grade 1 Investec Cape Derby.



Kotzen had no doubt he would see out Sunday’s trip.



This horse could throw a spanner into the works for the Vodacom Durban July final field selection panellists if he wins on Sunday.



On the other hand it is not a vintage field as he is the joint-top merit rated horse on 95.



The horse he has to beat might be the Joey Ramsden-trained Silvano’s Jet.



Ramsden said on his daily blog before the Daily News 2000 that he had been very excited about Silvano’s Jet’s first run after gelding and a throat operation, but lamented that the Daily News had come one week too soon.



His dam State Coach by Jet Master was also trained by Ramsden and won over 2000m, while Silvano is a stamina influence, so he should enjoy the trip and is well drawn with in form Sean Cormack up.



Wind Trip is the joint highest merit rated horse in the race, one point ahead of Silvano’s Jet and Abercrombie.



Interestingly, both Wind Trip and Abercrombie are by Trippi, who was a sprint-miler.



However, Wind Trip is out of a Fort Wood mare that won her maiden over 1800m and was subsequently placed over 2000m, while Abercrombie is out of the Grade 1-winning Jet Master mare Stratos, who also won a Grade 3 over the tough Turffontein 1800m, so both horses have a chance of getting the trip.



Trainer Garth Puller feared before Wind Trip’s last race in the Grade 3 Cup Trial over 1800m that it might come too soon after his previous outing, but he was seen to be staying on well, which augurs well for his chances here from a good draw.



Abercrombie stayed on quite well when a 1,15 length fifth in the Cape Derby and wasn’t disgraced in the Daily News 2000 where he had a wide draw and weakened from a handy position to finish just over five lengths back.



The Dean Kannemeyer-trained Hot Ticket relished first time blinkers last time out and won by four lengths from a decent sort in King Neptune over 2000m at Clairwood.



He could well be on the up, so is a definite runner here, despite officially being 3kg under sufferance with Patriotic Rebel.



The Sean Tarry-trained The King And I is an effective front-runner and finished only a length behind Wylie Hall in the Derby Trial over 2000m at Turffontein, despite giving the latter 2kg.



That form has stood up extremely well.



On the downside The King And I is not the most reliable sort and is also by the sprinter Tobe Or Nottobe, although there is some stamina in his female line.



The Gavin van Zyl-trained Balse was only 1,8 lengths behind Wyle Hall in the Derby Trial at level weights, and in the SA Derby he was unsuited to front-running tactics.



Van Zyl reckoned he would be more competitive this time held up, although he does have the widest draw of all.



Kalmia has always struck as wanting this sort of trip, which he has won over before, but he has a lot to do at the weights.



His stablemate Victory Emblem has caught the eye before and could be the dark horse, despite being way out at the weights.



Savage Win has been disappointing, although he has always been thought of as a Derby type.



Weiho Marwing-trained horses can never be ignored in staying races, although his charge Sky Rise doesn’t make much appeal on form.



Royal Lance has it all to do at the weights and from a wide draw.