WHY RACE TIMES FROM WINNINGFORM DIFFER

Hi All, I noticed lately that all horses race times from winningform race cards are being adjusted. Like Tablegold card will have a horse race time @ 116.48 and Winning form @ 116.51 and when I check 2013 Full Results times it actually 116.48

The winnningform times are off by 0.03 to 0.06 at most I do not understand why could anyone please explain that to me.

Thanks for your time checking up this thread and for your help

I think winningform adjust to daily track variant and also convert times of one distance to likely times in another distance (to "today's distance" that is).
Then a weighted average of the past performences is taken and the result is the "predicted time" you see.

It looks simple -if you have a database with all the races- but there are also loopholes in it.
One needs to make use of advanced statistics.
In 2005 I did the same thing using simple statistics and in 2008 again using more advanced techniques and the difference was remarkable.

For UK what is the best site offering such service you think ?

Yoh track variants sometimes I think they just there to confuse us I never really pay that much attention to them. It just that horses actual times are good than the ones predicted. I will make u an example, by law in horse racing once a horse reach the finish line the race is over. So it does not matter what the other runners time might be.

To actually gauge the horses performance u just need to know how far was it away from the winner and its time by the winner crosses the finish line. You can then analyze how everyone stack up from the winner and whose best etc.

It was gona be easy if they used metres instead of lengths but they saw that people will understand it much easier and beat the races and so they decided to compress everything just to confuse everyone. For instance if I am 5metres away from the winner that is very good but if that was 8lengths people will disqualify the runners of which if u convert that in metres it might mean the same thing.

For Uk races I use turfclub.com and attheraces.com

Hi, I will forward this onto the Winning Form team and let you know their feedback

Dev Wrote:

---

> Hi, I will forward this onto the Winning Form team
> and let you know their feedback


Hope you enjoyed you leave Dev....(tu)

It might be very interesting to know what winningform has to say.
You can't take a divorce from track variants I 'm afraid.
In human runners you can. They run on tarmac so if our champ reaches a certain stopwatch figure today in Athens, then next week in Tokyo it's going to be more or less the same and the week after in Munich again more or less the same. But race courses are vast expanses of sand or grass and the change in conditions matter. Also the variations in the way the race is organized.
Here is the story of the guy who formulated the maths that you are interested in:

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Claude_Shannon

Winning form reflects "actual" time and "adjusted" time................I assume that the query refers to "actual" times as the adjusted times ,by definition,will vary.

kajamix Wrote:

---

> It might be very interesting to know what
> winningform has to say.
> You can't take a divorce from track variants I 'm
> afraid.
> In human runners you can. They run on tarmac so if
> our champ reaches a certain stopwatch figure today
> in Athens, then next week in Tokyo it's going to
> be more or less the same and the week after in
> Munich again more or less the same. But race
> courses are vast expanses of sand or grass and the
> change in conditions matter. Also the variations
> in the way the race is organized.
> Here is the story of the guy who formulated the
> maths that you are interested in:
>
> en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Claude_Shannon

thanks for the link....I'd never heard of him before....(tu)

Claude Shannon's theories devised the optimising of the odds by card counting at Blackjack.
He also provides the formulae for converting chance to odds and then theoretical staking plans related thereto.
A brilliant brain no doubt!

I cannot however find any contributions of him offering advice on how to adjust the times of horseraces............I must have missed that bit and cannot pick it up in this link either...........please help!

I always thought the lower time was what they guessed would have been the time if perry strydom rode the horse

rob faux Wrote:

---

> Claude Shannon's theories devised the optimising
> of the odds by card counting at Blackjack.
> He also provides the formulae for converting
> chance to odds and then theoretical staking plans
> related thereto.
> A brilliant brain no doubt!
>
> I cannot however find any contributions of him
> offering advice on how to adjust the times of
> horseraces............I must have missed that bit
> and cannot pick it up in this link
> either...........please help!


When you compute the adjusted time you ought to ask yourself, what sort of adjustment did I do ? For better or for worse ?
So you make the adjustment by optimizing the chance of all the previous winners -if you have records of all the old races that is. This is done with a formula due to Shannon.
Shannon himself was not involved with the races as such I guess.