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RACE 1 - 1000 MAIDEN
1 WAY WITH WORDS - Rugg/Brown. Sand debut. Nothing to suggest she will love the surface but combo to be respected and appears stable elect in a poor field
2 OLIVEALICE - Shown little in her two sand runs and returns from a 14 week break but trainer coming into some form lately and Muzi rides
3 GEMMA - Only one silver in 14 c runs but last two have seemingly seen some improvement. Was 2.5l behind Astro Vision over c/d in penultimate start
4 DADDY'S LUCK - No top 3s in 5 c runs and has finished well behind a few of these in recent runs. Should have no chance.
5 GIZELLE - Sand debut. Nothing to suggest she will enjoy the sand but Khumalo up and chance if doing so
6 THEORY - Returned from 67 week rest when beaten 9.25l over 1200 on sand debut last time. Almost certainly needed that and the drop in trip may also benefit her. Got outsider backing that day from 36/1 to 14/1. Trainer in form and appie takes a little weight off
7 PRINCESS CHICHIBU - Miller/MVR. Beaten over 1400 and 1200, finishing 2.5l ahead of Theory last time, and now tries the minimum
8 ASTRO VISION - Rugg. 3rd on sand debut when returning from a 28 week rest on only her second run with Gemma 2.5l further back. Was not the greatest of fields but then nor is this. Brown is on the trainer's sand debutant though
9 LEGEND'S MOON - Debut. Nothing to say she will definitely take to the surface and Muzi on the trainer's other runner
The form of those with c experience looks weak and perhaps the most significant factor is Brown riding the sand debutant Way With Words rather than Astro Vision. She certainly won't have top be a star to win. The surprise package could be Theory who was supported last time, though that may have been due to hope in a poor field! Selection... WAY WITH WORDS x THEORY x ASTRO VISION
RACE 2 - 1600 H'CAP-70
1 TURKESTAN - Visser/Yeni. Won 4 of his 5 runs on c of which 3 of 4 have been over this d. Muzi rides again and has won all 4 times he has been aboard. Conflicting formlines with Sir Newton but if overlooking her penultimate run every chance again
2 ISLAND FLYER - Beaten 9.25l over 1200 on c debut last time out following a 14 week rest. May come on for that and prefer this d but a watching brief for me
3 HERE I AM - Sham/GW. Has gone up in d in each of his 3 c runs and does so again here following a fast finishing 2nd over 1400 last time. If confirming that run could be the one to trouble Turkestan most but a watching brief for me as not convinced she will repeat over this d
4 PRIDEOFTHENATION - Sham. Not finished within 5l of the winner since returning from her last rest and may find this d stretches her. Not for me this time
5 SIR NEWTON - Rugg/Brown. C record of 3-3-1 in 24 runs and 1-0-1 in 8 over c/d. That win though was last time out with Turkestan 5.75l behind with the latter now 2.5kgs better off. On penultimate run was beaten 1.5l by Turkestan and is now 1kg worse off. Should be thereabouts
6 BROMPTON'S LAD - Miller. Well beaten on both c runs. Appie takes weight off and though unlikely, he did occasionally put in a good one on the Vaal sand. Blinkers are off and up in d. may be worth chancing R1
7 MIESQUE'S CRITIC - Rugg. 1-1-2 in 11 c runs but yet to plane in 3 d runs, though attempts it for the first time on the sand. Seemingly not stable elect and has been struggling for form of late, unlikely
TURKESTAN x SIR NEWTON x HERE I AM
RACE 3 - 1400 MAIDEN
1 ROSIE HILLS - Miller/MVR. Sand debut. A little in the breeding indicating she might take to the sand and some ok turf efforts. A combo to be respected but she has frequently lost ground at the start
2 FRISKY DANCER - Rugg/Brown. Sand debut. Nothing in the breeding to state she will like the surface, achieved little on the turf and comes off a 14 week rest, but is seemingly the stable elct of his 3 runners, market watch
3 PRIVATE BENJAMIN - Rugg. Sand debut. Breeding suggests a chance she will take to the surface but, achieved little on the turf, comes off a 17 week rest and is seemingly not the stable elect
4 SET THE SCENE - Back up in a d after being well beaten over 1200. Has another poor draw as has been the case in all 3 of her c runs but still managed silver in runs over both 1600 and 1400. Was only 0.5l ahead of Katanga over 1600 though and is now 4kgs worse off. Trainer has been coming into form of late
5 TIBBSAGAIN - Well beaten on c debut last time out. Has a good draw but will have to show huge improvement to be involved
6 KATANGA - Rugg. 2 silvers and a bronze in 11 c runs. Not stable elect and though often not beaten too far, suspicion is that will be the same again. Has a 4kg pull with STS for 0.5l defeat over 1600 though the former may prefer 1400
7 RESERVED LADY - Blinkers go back on but best performances seem to have been without. 0-1-1 c record in 10 runs and some conflicting formlines. Was 2.5l back of Silken Sea (3.25l behind Katanga) 4 runs back but last time out finished 0.5l ahead of SS
8 SILKEN SEA - 0-2-2 in 13 c runs. Form implies she may prefer further and seems held by RL on the last run with the latter perhaps preferring the drop in trip. Wide draw
9 SAINT ACTAVIUS - No top 3s in 4 c runs, all over 1000. Tries further but drawn wide and seems unlikely she will improve sufficiently here to trouble the judge
10 CREDULOUS - Well beaten on c debut when jumping awkwardly and rested 14 weeks since. In form trainer but a wide draw. Watching brief
11 UNRELATED - Sham/GW. Well beaten all 3 c starts and will need to improve before I show an interest
12 VICTORIA'S VEIL - Sham. Well beaten both c starts and will need to improve before I show an interest
13 DUCHESS CATHERINE - 0-1-2 in 7 c runs and had 4 of these behind last time out when making headway late over 1200. Muzi up and a chance from the 5 draw
14 LANE GEENA - Spies/Chambers. Her 3 thirds in 4 c runs came over 1000 (2) and 1200 . Tries further for the first time on sand and has a good draw in 2 but comes off a 14 week rest
Difficult race. Nothing stands out and plenty have bits and pieces which indicate they could be a possibility. The bare form of those with c experience again does not look strong so I'm going to take a chance and give preference to the newcomers, just based on a small possibility in breeding and Brown again presumably having choice of the Rugg runners... ROSIE HILLS x FRISKY DANCER x DUCHESS CATHERINE
RACE 4 - MAIDEN 1200
1 BILLY'S LEGACY - Visser/Khumalo. Sand debut. Nothing to indicate he will take to the surface. Returns from a 25 week rest. has the 1 box but that is not always best over 1200
2 MY SANTANA - Visser. Sand debut. Breeding implies a good chance he will like the sand but d may be too short. Drawn wide. Has appie taking a little weight off.
3 SANTORINI - Rugg. Sand debut. 15 week rest, nothing suggests he will definitely like the course and is seemingly not stable elect but does have a good draw in 2
4 RANDOM AL - Visser/Yeni. Opened career with two c runs but did little. Returns from a 7 run spell in KZN where again little was achieved. Breeding does suggest he could run well on the sand and a possibility he needed those first two runs. Vissers will be his 4th trainer. Drawn high in 10
5 RESTRAINT OF TRADE - Rugg/Brown. Sand debut. Drawn high in 12 and nothing suggests he will definitely like the course but is seemingly stable elect
6 SCIENTIST - 5.5l second on c debut in a very weak field. Chambers up but no franking of the form and unlikely
7 SHEIKITUP - no top 3s in 3 c runs and only 3 3rds in 46 runs. Despite an in form trainer and appie with a good draw, think it will be 0-0-3 in 47. Often loses ground at the start
8 THE MATADOR - Rugg. No top 3s in 6 runs and seemingly not stable elect. Drawn 9 but is on 3rd run after a rest, though I can't see a lot more in his favour
9 SANGREAL - Miller/MVR. Sand debut. Off 15 weeks which followed 19 weeks off. Only silver in 16 runs was in a WR race. usually well beaten and not within 20l of the winner in his last 4 runs. There is a little in the breeding to suggest the surface may bring about some improvement and a fair draw in 5. Combo to be respected and if price allows may be a small idiot (10/1????? Disgraceful)
10 MARIA'S BOY - Drawn well in 4. And that's where the positives end. No top 3s in 15 runs (5 on c) and never been in single figure lengths of the winner
11 BROTHER SUBLIME - Sham/GW. Was a 2.25l 5th on debut in penultimate run before being beaten 8.25l over 200 further and was 2.5l behind Scientist that day. The return to 1000 should help and not without a chance, was 1.5l behind Nomenclature on debut but that was the latter's 17th attempt
12 OPTIMUS PRIME - Miller. Rested 27 weeks and gelded since beaten 24l on debut over c/d. Interesting that MVR is aboard the other Miller runner given this one was 3/1 on debut. Watching brief
13 NOMENCLATURE - Sham. 7 top 3s in 17 runs and started here with 2 c seconds before fading badly last time. Hard to see the extra 200 will solve her bridesmaid issues and Gunter on the other Sham runner. Suspect she will be standing somewhere behind the bride again hoping to catch the flowers!
With so many sand newcomers and not the best of form from those with c experience, more than a little guesswork and luck will probably be needed. Was going for a retirement fund bonus with SANGREAL but the price is so poor that I'll reconsider
RACE 5 - 1400 H'CAP-64
1 DUBAI DESTINATION - 6 top 3s in 17 c including 2 wins in 5 over c/d. Well beaten last time on reeturn from a 27 week rest but was much improved last time on 2nd run after a rest. Drawn in 2
2 WITH PASSION - Sham/GW. 8 top 3s in 15 c runs and has a third from her 2nd run over c/d and 3 of the others from the top 5 in that run have won since. Task not made easier from the 10 draw but not without a chance
3 QUICK GLANCE - Rugg/Brown. Won maiden on her 2nd c start in her penultimate run. On debut beaten 3.75l by To Be Happy over 1200 and is now worse off at the weights but was drawn 13/14 that day and returning from a 14 week rest. Beaten 6l last time out when pulling and drops in d from 1600. Seemingly stable elect with Brown up and has a chance from the 4 draw
4 LEPRECORNS GIFT - Seemingly not enjoying the c on her return from a 3 year absence. Had been performing well on the Vaal but not been within 16l of the winner in her 4 runs since coming back. Overall c record of 1-1-0 in 9 runs. Appie continues to take weight off and and drawn 8. Is on 2nd run after a rest but have a sneaky suspicion she could improve again at any moment so may have an R1 e/w just in case!
5 HLAMBA - Sham. Best effort when a 1.75l 3rd last time out over c/d. Drawn 11 and Gunter rides WP which probably implies that one is the stable preference. Not without a chance but not one that inspires great confidence in me
6 COOL TEMPEST - Only beaten 4l into 5th on c debut last time out when on 2nd run after a rest. She was though 3.25l back of Milkwood Manor though that day with the latter 1.5kgs better off and goes from 13/13 to the 1 box. Khumalo though gets aboard and in with a small chance on 3rd run after a rest
7 DEFENDER OF PEACE - Spies/Chambers. returns to Bingo after 3 unsuccessful attempts on the Vaal sand where she lost ground at the start on each run. Won her maiden here over 1000 following a 50 week rest and followed that with a 5.75l defeat over 1200 - 1st and 2nd have won since and 3rd has been runner-up since plus two winners from further down the field. Often finds a little market support and an interesting contender from the 5 draw
8 TO BE HAPPY - 1-0-1 in 13 c runs and no top 3s in 3 over c/d. 2.9l behind WP over 1200 in penultimate run and now 2kgs better off and not disgraced when a 5.5l 4th over c/d last time out. Can't be discounted but at the same time does not appeal with any great depth
9 BEEPBEEP - Rugg. Appie up taking a little weight off but overall recent form has been uninspiring. 11 top 3s in 27 c/d runs but a pass for me until she recaptures some better form
10 MILKWOOD MANOR - Rugg. Decent c debut when 2nd beaten only 0.75l and ahead of three of these rivals. Was drawn widest then in 13 and now has poll, and the 3rd won next time out (1000) aand closely matched with WP on collateral form with that one. Another in with a shout but Brown is on QG so perhaps the stable favours that one
11 AND COUNTING - Sham. 1.75l behind MM in penultimate run and 1.75kg better off. but twice well behind stablemate With Passion over 1200 in the races won by Chiovanni and yet to finish in the top 3 in 5 c runs
12 LEGEND OF JUNO - 2nd run after a rest and not within 15l of the winner in last 5 starts. Has a silver in 7 runs over c/d but from the 12 draw will have to find Sandy Lane type improvement to win... though as that one proved, nothing is impossible!
Difficult race to decipher but I'm going to take a chance and go against what seems to be stable choice with Milkwood Manor, Brown has never idden this one and that may have something to do with the choice. Plenty have a chance and DOP interests me but there is nothing to confirm there will be improvement on her last run here... MILKWOOD MANOR x DEFENDER OF PEACE x WITH PASSION
RACE 6 - 1800 H'CAP-70
1 CASTLE ROCK - Visser/Khumalo. "Controversial" winner over 2200 last time, finishing 1l ahead of Dolomite with the runner-up 1 kg better off. Has a 0-1-2 record in 14 d runs though and not been in the top 3 in his 2 c/d efforts and was beaten 13l by Dolomite last time over this c/d. Chance if Khumalo can sort out the d problem!
2 MIESQUE'S FORCE - Rugg/Brown. 9 top 3s in 21 c runs and has a gold and 5 silvers in 12 runs over c/d. Was o.75l behind Dolomite in his last run and is now 1kg worse off with that rival who has aruably improved but still has a chance
3 SHARP DRESSED MAN - 11 top 3s in 37 c runs but has not been within 13l of the winner in his last 7 runs and no reason to think there will suddenly be huge improvement
4 DOLOMITE - Visser/Yeni. Seems best suited to this trip and is 1-0-1 in 3 c/d runs as opposed to a 1-1-1 overall c record in 6 runs. In with a shout again with some formlines shown with the waffle for other horses
5 QUE SERA SERA - Sham. 100/1 denier of a big trifecta for me in penultimate run and therefore not a horse I like! Was beaten 1.3l by Dolomite that day and is 1kg better off. That run was a huge improvement and came off a 29 week rest. The drop in d to 1400 on 2nd run after a rest may not have suited and was a tiring 7.25l 5th. If he can reproduce the penultimate run then in with a shout
6 GLOBE TROTTER - 2-2-2 in 13 c/d runs and a return to form in penultimate when in the same race with Dolomite as QSS he was beaten 1.25l and is 0.5kg better off. Well beaten 3rd behind CR and Dolomite over 2200 last time. Again, if repeating penultimate then has a shout
7 USHKADEL - Not placed in 3 historic c runs and though has come up against some decent sand performers on the Vaal sand recently has also not set the world alight and the trainer form is not best currently. Watching brief for me back at Bingo
8 RUN RORKUS RUN - Visser. No top 3s in 7 c runs and seemingly well held by a few here. Even for this stable it would be a jaw-dropping moment if RRR wins
Possible to make a case for most but back over this distance i'll stick with Dolomite. As prices on others likely to be restrictive I'll chance QQS and GT to repeat penultimate runs... DOLOMITE x GLOBE TROTTER x QUE SERA SERA
RACE 7 - 1000 H'CAP-72
1 MEMGHAR - 1-1-0 in 7 c runs but both those placings have come in 3 c/d efforts. Stumbled abd lost plenty ground last time out but still recovered to bolt home. Somewhat surprisingly Khumalo gets off and moves to Becketts Park with the appie being used to take some weight off. Had 6 of these rivals behind that day, Derbaas being closest beaten 2.25l into 3rd and now only 0.5kg better off. Although odd that the two main jocks are not aboard, given the stumble and that she ran to within 0.5l of Mr Vindaloo a few runs back, I see Memghar as extremely hard to beat all things being equal
2 HARRY HALL - Spies. Sand debut. Nothing in breeding says to me he will definitely enjoy the surface and recent turf efforts somewhat lack-lustre. Watching brief
3 JAGERBOMB - 7.25l behind Memghar last time out and though that came off a 16 week rest, he is yet to finish in the top 3 in 4 c/d efforts. Blinkers come off
4 STALLONE - Visser/Yeni. Someone explain how a horse beaten 3.25l and only 1kg better off is at worst joint fav with his victor? Fair enough that was his c debut but given the ground Memghar lost I just can't see Muzi being able to make up that much ground on a decent appie... unless of course they know things will go wrong again at the start!
5 NIPPY NATHAN - Rugg. Well held by Derbaas and Memghar on his two runs since his maiden win. Hard to see that form being reversed
6 VEE EIGHT - Spies. Not done much since his maiden win on c and on his only other visit here looks well held by Derbaas. Often slowly away and not for me
7 BECKETTS PARK - Visser/Khumalo. Beaten 4l by Memghar and is now 3kgs worse off. Can't see that even Khumalo can make that big a difference
8 KING KALLIS - Found improvement from somewhere recently culminating in his maiden win last time out. With trainer form improving and with the appie up he runs off a low weight and might spring a surprise though maiden was a relatively poor field
9 POWER FLOW - Only one silver in 7 c runs but that was over this d when showing plenty of improvement, probabkly due to the fact he got away well, last time out under this appie, finishing 1l behind Derbaas but with the latter now also ridden by an appie, he is 2.5kgs worse off. Trainer in form and if starting on terms again could the thereabouts again
10 DERBAAS - 1-1-3 in 13 c/d runs and recent formlines have been demonstrated. Seems much better over this d in recent runs though was reported lame when well beaten over 1200 last time out. Not without a chance again but hard to see a form reversal
11 CODE NAPOLEON - 9.75l behind Memghar on c debut when coming off a 36 week rest. Form prior to that on the Vaal sand was not his best though andwill be a watching brief for me
I don't understand the market. Everything shouts to me that Memghar should follow-up comfortably assuming there is no catastrophe at the start. Would be interested to hear if other clanners see it differently... MEMGHAR x KING KALLIS x DERBAAS
RACE 8 - 1200 PINNACLE
1 ZULU KING - Visser/Khumalo. Has a very decent 4-2-1 record in 9 c/d runs but returns from a 14 week rest. In his penultimate start was beaten 3.5l by Code Red but is now 7.5kgs better off, though how much the winner had in hand is an unknown of course. If fit with Khumalo up must have a chance at the weights
2 CODE RED - Gets on well with this jockey and a 4-1-1 record in 8 runs over c/d. Last time out was probably too far and prior to that rattled off 5 consecutive wins and then a 2nd over 1200 and 1400. Likely to be a big runner
3 KINGOFMOUNTAIN - Miller/MVR. Got the better of CR over 1400 last time by 0.75l but CR is now 3kgs better off. Is 0-1-1 in his 2 c/d runs but 0-1-3 in 7 total runs at the d. Was beaten 0.25l by ZK five runs back in his kast try at this d and is now 3.5kgs worse off. Likely to be not too far away but at this d I prefer others
4 OCCHI DI LUPO - Visser. Well beaten on c debut over 1000 and a watching brief
5 METRO MAN - Visser/Yeni. 2-1-2 in 7 c/d runs but seemingly below par recently. Muzi has a good record on the horse and he gets back up but seems well held, with an 8.75l defeat to Breakspear last time. and Muzi is insufficient reason to anticipate the required improvement to bring about form reversals
6 BREAKSPEAR - Rugg/Brown. Two very good wins over c/d last two runs but comes up against stronger here and, though not without a chance, I think he is likely to be deprived of the hat-trick
7 CAPTAIN DE LAGO - Sham. Drops back to 1200 but seems well held by some of these rivals, ZK in particular. is 2nd run after a rest and not likely
8 SUDDEN SURPRISE - Never too far off and has a 2-1-0 record in 6 c/d runs but again seems well held by some of these rivals. Likely to run a decent race again but not to trouble the judge
The rest may make the difference... CODE RED x ZULU KING x KING OF MOUNTAIN
RACE 9 - 1200 H'CAP-62
1 COPY CAT - Miller. Won maiden on c debut over 1400 last time out. Decent draw in 3 and unless too sharp (1 silver in 5 turf runs at the d) has a chance of following up
2 COUNTESS KATE - Only two 3rds in 8 c/d runs and often thereabouts. Good draw in 4 and no reason why she should not give aa fair account of herself again
3 SNOW GARLAND - Visser. Finished behind CK on last two runs over the c/d, though did reverse that over 1400 last time out. Back to this d, unlikely
4 WISPER THE WIND - Very good win over 1000 last time and despite some bad draws has been 1st, 2nd and 3rd in her 3 runs since returning from her last rest. Big runner but high draw again
5 FESTIVE INTERLUDE - Rugg/Brown. Returns from a 21 week rest after some poor efforts over further following her maiden win. Drops back to a d where she has 3 3rds from 4 runs over c/d. Could improve but not a likely winner
6 LADY COZZENE - Miller/MVR. Very good 3rd on c debut behind Code Red over this d but had an 18 week rest following that. Good chance if ready
7 WINGS OF AN ANGEL - Visser/Yeni. Won on 2nd visit to the c over 1400 last time out with 4 of these behind. Tea 'n You was 1.5l behind and TNY is now 2kgs better off. Chance gain but another with a high draw
8 FANTASY HOSTESS - is 1-1-1 in 3 c/d runs but recent form has not reflected that and was beaten 11l by WTW over 1000 last time out and has the highest draw
9 GAELIC GIRL - 2 3rds in 6 runs with one of them coming in her only run over c/d in her penultimate run. That run came off a 16 week rest before she returned to a longer trip and struggled again. In the run over 1200 she finished 3.75l ahead of TNY and is only 1 kg worse off. If she can repeat that run then could be e/w value from the 6 box
10 FOR FRELUCHE - Sham. Reported lame when beaten 22l on c debut but has only one silver in 7 d runs and drifted in the market that day, watching brief
11 TEA 'N YOU - Visser/Khumalo. 1-2-2 in 12 c runs but only one silver in 5 d runs, though that was on this c. Last two have been better and has a chance from the 5 box with Khumalo up
12 SHEPHERDS BUSH - 1 silver in 8 c runs and appears well held. Very unlikely
13 IZAANAZAMA - Beaten 11l on both c starts and has no top 3s from 6 d runs. Very unlikely
14 EQUIVALENCE - Visser. Only 2 3rds in 12 d runs (both on this c in 7 attempts) but looks well held. Very unlikely
15 SWEET NOVEMBER - Reserve... and should not matter if she gets a run or not, beaten minimum of 13l in all 4 c starts
If a couple of them can overcome poor draws then the result could well be different but as things stand I'll take a chance on Cliffie Miller having LC ready... LADY COZZENE x GAELIC GIRL x WISPER THE WIND
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