Some very poor races and some very tricky ones too. Hardly inspiring and can't say I found much I liked so not expecting much. Anyway, as ever, please add comments etc to the daily thread rather than here.
RACE 1 - 1000 MAIDEN
1 CONNY BONNY - Sand debut. Not within 8l of the winner in 5 turf runs and nothing to indicate to me from the breeding that she will improve for the change in surface.
3 PATRONE - 10l 5th on sand debut lto with the 2nd and 3rd scoring subsequently. Returns from a 15 week break and may improve but unlikely winner
4 SAMBA SERENADE - Sand debut. Decent turf efforts (5 winners from lto race) but nothing to indicate to me from the breeding that she will love the surface and something of a concern that she has taken 15 and 13 week breaks from her last 2 starts. Watching brief.
5 ROYAL QUEST - Better when dropped in trip to 1200 on 2nd c run lto and drops in trip again. Perhaps not the strongest of fields though that day, nor when 2nd over this trip at Bingo on debut but not chanceless.
6 STAGE ATTRACTION - 3rd and 4th in her two visits to the c and usually not beaten too far. Has an e/w chance without making strong appeal and for me more likely to be thereabouts again rather than winning. Blinkers go on.
7 SWEET HARLEM - Ran 4th beaten only 2.25l on 2nd run over c/d but well beaten both prior to and since that run and not the likely winner for me
8 SEEKING SEATTLE - Magner. Two disappointing c runs have followed three similar efforts on turf. Breeding suggests there was a good chance she would perform well on the surface. In the unlikely event something has changed, R1 at big odds as a cover for unexpected improvement may be an idea.
9 MARTINI BLU - Well beaten in only 2 c efforts and poor in only run at Bingo. Looks well held here and should not feature.
10 RIVER PRINCESS - 9.65l lto on c debut is the closest she has come to the winner in 4 runs and no reason to believe there will be sudden improvement here.
11 CANDLELIGHT QUEEN - Debut. Nothing in breeding to suggest she will love the surface but inform trainer and not to be discounted lightly.
12 CRISTAL ARROW - Magner. Debut. Nothing in breeding to suggest she will love the surface.
14 SHE'S A TIGER - Goosen. Debut. Breeding suggests a decent chance she will take to the surface and trainer has brought out some heavily backed sand debutants in recent weeks. I wonder if all LG's sand debutants are now going to open up fav with the bookies lol.
15 SLICK DEPUTY - Magner. A little in the breeding to indicate she may enjoy the surface, with the appie taking weight off and a big price, another that is possibly worth an R1 gamble.
16 TWILIGHT ECLIPSE - Magner/W'man. Another Magner runner with a little in the breeding to suggest she will like the surface. A third of the price of SD but does have Gunter up.
18 CONSTANT MELODY - Reserve. Not been within 10.25l of the winner in 5 turf runs and nothing to suggest from the breeding that will all change with the different surface.
Difficult start to proceedings. I am not keen on sand debutants with little to say from the breeding that they will enjoy the sand. That said, Samba Serenade will possibly be hard to beat if so doing but the breaks are a further concern. Candlelight Queen with Lucky going so well must be considered and Magner's 4 runners might produce one to challenge but, a few of LG's first timers of late have seemed to have futures here and it might be worth siding with him again... SHE'S A TIGER x CANDLELIGHT QUEEN x SAMBA SERANADE
RACE 2 - 1600 H'CAP-76
1 NEON TIGER - Pettigrew/MVR. Sand debut. 7 top 3s in 10 turf runs and a little in the breeding to suggest she may enjoy the sand. Combo to be respected and a chance on 3rd run after a rest, but down in d and that might not be ideal.
2 MISS K - Goosen. With a decent draw for a change won emphatically lto to improve her record to 3 wins in 4 runs over c/d. Up in class but must be a big runner.
3 BELLE COCO - Azzie/Strydom. Fav in all 4 turf starts and finally justified that when winning maiden lto. Nothing in the breeding confirms that she will take to the sand but trainer not one to ignore on the surface and the booking of Striker would indicate it more likely she will, especially as he was on Royal Taska when winning lto. Has the 1 draw but comes off a 12 week rest. Interesting.
4 ROYAL TASKA - Followed up her silver over 1450 in her 2nd c run when winning her maiden lto over c/d but 2nd did little for the form nto. Khumalo was to replace Striker in the irons but seems that there may be a jockey change. In with a chance but indicators to me are saying that others will be stronger.
5 OLYMPIC SPRING - Reportedly not striding out when 10l adrift of MK lto. Has 7 top 3s in 13 c runs but only 0-1-1 in 5 over c/d. On weights and on previous meetings fairly closely matched with MK, though the latter seems to hold an upper hand. Another that Striker has recently been riding. Fradd up here.
6 IN MY SECRET LIFE - SJG. Won maiden lto on sand debut over 1450 in only her second run. Second has finished with another silver since and in with a shout but I think others have stronger formlines.
7 OLYMPIC GOAL - Spies. 3rd over 1800 was an improvement and her first top 3 in 4 c starts. Was beaten 10.75l though by MK in her penultimate run and a 3kg swing in her favour seems somwhat insufficient to see a reversal of the form.
8 BOARDING CALL - Spies. C debut. Breeding suggests she may enjoy the surface but has been beaten 6.25l on sand debut at Bingo and I will need to see better here before supporting. On 3rd run after a 12 week rest and blinkers come off.
A few here that can't be completely discounted, particularly Olympic Spring whose last run must be ignored, and not sure I fully understand all the jockey arrangements but, my thoughts really come down to three. Miss K has very strong and obvious claims based on known sand form. However, it may be more competitive than expected as I have a feeling both Neon Tiger and Belle Coco are going to take to the surface and my gut is telling me that BC is the right one to go with lol, though I will have a side bet on a LG double in the first two races... BELLE COCO x MISS K x NEON TIGER
RACE 3 - 1600 MAIDEN
1 NOBLE WIND - 0-1-2 in 8 c runs and 0-1-1 in 4 over c/d, on 22nd attempt to come out of the maidens but may not get a better chance in a very weak looking field. Holds some of these comfortably from her last two outings and is much more favourably drawn than has been the case recently.
2 HUNT THE STARS - Two thirds in 6 c appearances and both came in her only 2 attempts at this d. But, not been within 7l of the winner in her last 10 runs, 5 here and seems well held by NW.
3 SHIRLA - Pettigrew/MVR. Appears to be well held by NW and overall form has a very weak look but she does occasionally run a decent race as demonstrated by the fact she has two silvers in her 6 c runs. Not one that can be supported with confidence but if she is in the mood on the day then she could surprise from the 2 box.
4 PRINCESS FAULL - Two ok runs in 6 attempts, 2 on c. Those 2 were over 1000 and 1200 though and yet to be seen if she is effective on c at this d. Breeding suggests she might do ok on the surface so, if she can produce her best on the day, must have a chance in this field with Striker up.
5 SOUKOUS - Not disgraced when 3rd on sand debut in her penultiate run with a couple of these rivals behind. Appie continues to take weight off but one would have to assume stablemate PF is favoured with PS up on that one
6 SOFT SAND - 2.75l 6th on debut, 0.75l behind PF, in her only sand run to date. That was over 1000 and her three subsequent turf runs (closest 7.25l 6th) have only been up to 1200 so a big step up in trip. Good sand sire so if she stays she could win in this field but Brown on Calypso.
7 CALYPSO GIRL - One 3rd in 3 c runs with the penultimate run here probably best ignored but still has 2.25l with Soukous on the run behind In My Secret Life. Brown up but seems unlikely.
8 FELAN - Spies. C debut. Not within 10.75l of the winner in her 4 runs to date, two of which were at Bingo. Another taking a big step up in d and if that suits then, with a little in the breeding to say she may like the sand, then one that could shock but comes back from 21 weeks away.
9 SO CLOSE - Beaten 17.5l and 30l in her 2 c runs over 1450 and 1800 and fared no better in 2 turf runs. Should not feature.
Geez, what a poor race. Noble Wind is the obvious one but is certainly no superstar. At the prices, it may be worth looking for e/w value or even an idiots elsewhere as some here have the potential to shock if good enough on the day or finding that the step up in trip suits. Princess Faull is of interest with Striker up but even he is not sufficient to give me the confidence to back her to win. I'll be having a very small idiot on Felan and a small e/w interest in Shirla but really, probably a race to avoid. I think NW likely to win but in hope... SHIRLA x FELAN x PRINCESS FAULL
RACE 4 - 1200 MAIDEN
1 ROYAL STOCK - Much better effort last time here when a 2l 3rd over 1000. Tired late that day though and it is his only top 3 in 7 c visits with no top 3s in 5 at this d (2 on c). Had a few behind him including Translator (2.75l). Run poorly on turf since over 1000 and far from convinced the return to 1200 is the right move. Not for me.
2 MAGIC OF ROME - Yet to place in 3 c visits, was 6l behind RS lto and though he has 4 top 3s in 12 d runs, recent form uninspiring and a pass.
3 TEXAS TIGER - Not within 12.25l of the winner in 3 c visits over 1000, 1200 and 1450. On face value little to like but has come up against a couple of decent sand runners and last time may have been too far, particularly as he was returning from a 40 week rest. Has the 1 box here and though unlikely, I'll chance a very small e/w.
4 CRYSTAL SILVANO - Sand debut. Achieved little on turf in 4 runs at different distances and nothing in the breeding to suggest he will take to this surface.
5 KING'S CODE - Sand debut. not closer than 7l from the winner, and that was over 2600, in 8 turf runs and off for 58 weeks. With nothing in the breeding to suggest this surface will be to his liking, despite the 2 draw, has to be another pass.
6 COMBAT CAT - Beaten 9l and 25l (returning from 15 week rest and slow away) in his 2 c runs and got no closer in 4 turf runs prior to that. On second run after a rest but drawn 14 and hard to see him featuring.
7 JUST A THOUGHT - SJG/Fradd. 5.25l behind RS lto on sand debut when returning from a 13 week rest having been gelded. Could strip fitter and improve from the 3 draw but no more than a watching brief for me at this stage.
8 TRANSLATOR - C Laird. 2.75l behind RS lto on sand debut when returning from an 11 week break. Should come on for that and perhaps was drawn the wrong side of the track that day. One of only two rides for Miene and is likely to prefer the extra 200 but has a tricky draw in 10 and jury still debating...
9 SUB SHAAWES - Confirmed improvement in 3rd turf run when a decent 1l 3rd on sand debut lto over c/d despite losing 3l at the start and RS was 11l back. The 4th franked the form by winning nto, albeit on turf. Tricky draw in 11 but can be argued, no worse than losing ground at the start. Should be a major player with Khumalo retaining the ride.
10 BRAD'S SURGE - Beaten 12l and 11.25l in two c runs over 1000, has a good draw in 4 but returns from 14 weeks off and hard to see him being involved.
11 FIERCE ALLEGIANCE - C debut. Beaten 9.25l over 1000 at Bingo and shown nothing in 4 turf runs. Comes off an 11 week rest and drawn wide in 13. Trainer firing but this horse seems unlikely to improve his stats.
12 REBEL WITH A CAUSE - Sand debut. 15.75l is the closest he has come to the winner in 3 turf runs and nothing in the breeding to suggest fortunes are about to have a massive turnaround. Trainer and jockey in good form but still unlikely to get this one home first from the 9 box off a 23 week rest.
13 SILVERADO PRINCE - Reserve. Sand debut. Two very poor runs following a moderate debut and nothing in the breeding to suggest he will take to the sand.
14 ARCTIC FOX - Reserve. 7.5l is the closest he has been to the winner in 8 starts and well beaten on both c runs.
Sub Shaawes looks the obvious one after a good sand debut, the concern is the possibility of another poor start and the 11 box. In what is for the most part though a seemingly very poor field, the options appear to be very thin and I expect him to win and Translator is likely to be the one to follow him home but imo is too skinny to risk taking on the fav. All that said, I still have reservations so, in the hope the wheels come off somewhere, and in search of some potential value, I am going to hit the "start praying" button again and hope the price drifts on Texas Tiger... TEXAS TIGER x SUB SHAAWES x TRANSLATOR
RACE 5 - 1200 H'CAP-88
1 CROWN HEIGHTS - Tarry/Khumalo. Poor against stronger last two over 1450 following 12 and 11 week rests. Has previously run a good second following a 42 week rest (over 1450) so it would seem that perhaps all is not right at present and as such can't be recommended but, if returning to form, would have a very good chance with a 3-3-0 record in 9 c runs and 2-1-0 in 4 over c/d.
2 HANG FIRE - 11 top 3s in 18 c runs and 0-1-2 in 4 over c/d. Usually thereabouts and running well at present without finding the bit extra to win, think it could be the same here.
3 DUAL ALLIANCE - Tarry. 4 wins and a 2nd in 8 c visits including victory in his only attempt over c/d but been campaigned over further since. Has been soundly beaten though in both his runs following a 47 week rest and like his stablemate is probably best watched until clear signs of a return to better form.
4 FUNNY GLORY - 4-3-1 in 14 c runs and 1-1-0 in 4 over c/d. Another whose form has appeared to lose its gloss over recent runs but, has been 1st twice and 2nd, at 3 different distances, when Striker has been aboard and has a useful 4 draw. With the trainer showing signs of form improvement perhaps this one will follow suit...
5 PINOT NOIR - 1 win in 3 c visits, with that win coming in 2 attempts at c/d, beating Co-Pilot 1l. Has been well beaten twice since though and the widest draw of the 9 will make things difficult.
6 CO-PILOT - Rested 14 weeks since a 1l second to PN on sand debut. Winner's form since has done nothing for the form but the run was decent in itself and with the trainer in hot form must have a chance.
7 MR ALFONSO - 2-2-2 record in 6 c runs and 0-1-1 in 2 over c/d. Came out of the maidens in penultimate start when trying the blinkers and followed that up with a convincing win over 1000 lto, 3rd and last of 15 have won since. Up against stronger here but the appie continues to take weight off, stable is going well and a good draw in 2 must all combine to put him in with a good chance.
8 RIVER TRIP - Woodruff/Fradd. Sand debut. Nothing in the breeding says he will definitely take to the surface and though a combo to be respected, he comes off a 34 week rest and has not set the world alight in 3 runs on turf since making a winning debut. Watching brief.
9 GREAT KALI - Sand debut. Just the one win from 8 d starts on the turf but a decent effort for 4th lto. A little in the breeding suggests he may take to the surface and with the 1 box can't be dismissed lightly.
Tricky race with a few seemingly out of form but perhaps none of them can be completely discounted. Given the conundrum, the one that has least questions to answer and is definitely inform seems to be the logical way forward... MR ALFONSO x FUNNY GLORY x CO-PILOT
RACE 6 - 1200 H'CAP-70
1 AUTHENTICATED - 5 top 3s in 12 c runs and two silvers in 6 over c/d. Trainer in good form and appie takes weight off. Has a wide draw here and is just not a horse that convinces me to support him. Has plenty to find with Passion Pleaser after a 4.25l defeat lto, has a chance but not for me.
2 KING'S WILD - Sand debut. Nothing in the breeding to confirm he will likely take to the surface but the booking of PS indicates he may do so. Has 2 wins in 10 d runs and an ok draw in 6. Couldn't support on the PS factor but wouldn't surprise me to see him win.
3 SOLS GOLD - Made a decent sand debut when running 4th in his 2nd career start but campaigned on the turf since until his last outing when stumbling. Has been getting away from the stalls poorly recently and not a horse who appears to have the ability to recover. Is on 3rd run after a rest but drawn 10 and not one I could support.
4 STORM INCOMING - Sand debut (not sure how Winning Form can know he likes this course! lol doesn't even seem to like the turf here!! lol). Breeding suggests that he may well take to the surface but not the best draw in 9. Drops back in d to 1200 which he won his maiden at 3 starts back. Turf form is a little confusing but one I will monitor in the market in the hope he hits a price where a small e/w becomes worth the risk
5 BAREBACK - 4-1-1 in 32 c starts and probably best at this d with a 2-0-1 record in 14. Not the most consistent but does seem to run well for this appie, 1-1-1 in 4 rides. Drawn ok in 7 and if in the mood could well be thereabouts with the blinkers back on. Another price watch for me.
6 PASSION PLEASER - 2-1-1 in 13 c runs with both wins coming in 5 attempts over c/d. Bounced back to form lto but that was from the 1 draw and may struggle to repeat the feat from 11.
7 ANGEL GABRIEL - SJG/Fradd. Ran on late to finish 4th in his second c visit lto over 1000 and a chance if confirming over 1200, has won this d on turf and won at Turf over 1160 in penultimate. A tricky draw in 8 and too short in the market for me though could well win.
9 CELTIC KING - Not been in the top 3 since winning his maiden here 6 c runs back. Usually not beaten too far and has the 1 box here but again likely to find a few too good.
10 TAKAAMUL - 1-1-1 in 9 c visits and 0-1-1 in 4 over c/d. Khumalo up and the 4 draw are plusses but appears held by a couple of rivals. Another not usually beaten too far and I suspect that will be repeated here.
11 VICTORY CALL - Tries the d for the first time on c having been beaten only 2.5l on the turf only three runs back. Another who usually, though not always, gives a fair account of himself without being close enough to really threaten. The 3 draw will help and not chanceless but not very likely either imo
12 JANNU - Makes his 3rd c appearance. Ran a fair second on debut but campaigned on the turf since bar one effort over c/d when soundly beaten. Returns from a 23 week rest and drawn 12, appie takes weight off but difficult to be enthusiastic about his chances
13 SAVANNAH MONTANA - Gets a run and Chambers up. Last effort best ignored as reportedly not striding out and that aside has generally been in good form recently, winning penultimate run over 1000. Has the 5 draw and in with a chance but I have doubts about this d being ideal.
14 UMCEBO - Reserve. Fair sand debut when 3.25l behind SM over 1000. Gets a 1.5kg pull and should strip fitter with that run coming off an 11 week rest but drawn widest of all.
Another somewhat uninspiring event and plenty of questions abound lol. Again I have no strong fancy and shall resort to that "prayer" button. PS taking the ride on King's Wild is really bugging me but I'm going to somewhat stupidly go for the one he seems to have deserted and hope Storm Incoming reacts well to the surface with a small e/w and possibly do the same with Bareback... STORM INCOMING x KINGS WILD x BAREBACK
RACE 7 - 1600 H'CAP-85
1 SPECTROSCOPE - 3-1-2 in 10 c record and 2-1-0 in 6 over c/d. Usually thereabouts and probably will be again, the 9 draw makes it tougher but in with a shout.
2 COOKIE MONSTER - Magner/Chambers. Won his maiden here 9 runs back over 1000 and returned to the c over the same d lto only to be soundly beaten. Big step up in d but ran a 2l 4th two runs back over this d on the turf. Ok draw in 5 and rarely runs a bad race but difficult to approach with certainty... has a chance but a watching brief for me
3 BOY OH BOY - 4-2-2 in 22 c visits including a third in 3 c/d efforts. Another who is usually in the mix and has been running against some very strong competitors. The drop in class gives him an opportunity to end a frustrating sequence of 24 runs since his last win.
4 ENCHANTED GUEST - Seems to have taken to the sand well with a third over 1450 (following a 12 week rest) and then silver over 1600 (Spectroscope was 2.75l further back, 1kg better off). PS retains the ride and a very good chance of success if holding form.
5 ONE OF ONE - Sand debut. Won maiden in a Workriders in penultimate run but done little otherwise. Nothing in the breeding to say he will definitely take to the surface. Gets the 1 box but little else to promote his chances.
6 CARYL'S LAW - 2-1-0 in 8 c/d runs but really seems to have lost all form over the past 12 months. Only twice in that period has he been in single figure lengths of the winner and his best was 8l. Has the 2 box but can't be recommended until signs of a form return are seen.
7 MUTHIAH PILLAI - Much improved lto when a 2l 3rd to Marching Band over c/d, 0.5l behind EG but the latter is now 1.5kgs better off. That run was 2nd run after a rest and his three earlier attempts on the c had brought little success. That said, they were around rests so might not have been race fit and possible problems existed. Earlier in career won 3/6 runs at Bingo. On 3rd run after a rest and if no issues then no reason why he should not be challenging again.
8 MAURI BLUE - Tarry. Two decent runs since sand debut over 1000. Won his maiden in penultimate over 1800 impressively by 7.25l (2nd won nto) and was then a creditable 3rd (2nd won nto) from a poor draw in a decent field over c/d. Up in class but a light mass and likely to be right there.
9 OKLAHOMA TRIPPI - Much improved since trying the sand with a second in penultimate over c/d despite stumbling (winner followed-up) and then winning his maiden lto over 1200 (3rd won twice since). Good draw in 3 and a low weight but comes off a 14 week rest and with the step up in trip may just need it.
Another somewhat open contest with plenty of the 9 in with chances. The one that appeals most and I'm going to take a chance with is Boy Oh Boy. He has run creditably over a long period with little success and probably deserves a win. I think he represents some decent e/w value and for his owner's sake I hope he can have a change of fortune... and change mine at the same time! lol... BOY OH BOY x ENCHANTED GUEST x MUTHIAH PILLAI
RACE 8 - 1600 H'CAP-71
1 SOLAR ENERGY - Ran a 7.25l 2nd to Mauri Blue on c debut over 1800 and followed that up by winning his maiden by 5.25l. Was drawn high in both runs. Beaten a distance though in his first run out of the maidens lto and that run is perhaps best ignored. Has a good draw in 4 and not without a chance.
2 SILVER SPECIALIST - Magner/Chambers. Has frequently run against some very decent sand performers. Has been coming down in class without great effect but has the ability if things fall right. Definitely has a chance if they are running on from the back.
3 NIGHT EMBERS - Often loses ground at the start and has been beaten 10l and 25l in his 2 sand runs since returning to the surface, no top 3 in 4 total c runs. Is now on 3rd run after a rest but will need to improve significantly to win here.
4 DIVINE INVITATION - Pettigrew. After a promising gold followed by a silver looked to have a bright sand future but form has dropped off markedly and 12.25l is the closest he has been in his last 3 runs. Needs a form return to feature.
5 KRUGER GOLD - Has yet to finish in the top 3 in 7 attempts over c/d but a good draw in 3 and puts in the occasional decent effort and seems to run well under Gunter. Perhaps not the likeliest but not impossible.
6 KUDOS - 2-3-7 in 26 c runs and 1--0-5 in 11 over c/d. Seems a little inconsistent and the high draw of 13 won't be in his favour. Another possible but unlikely.
7 BEIJING OLYMPICS - C debut. Started on the Bingo sand with two good wins but well beaten in two subsequent efforts there, though the second came after a 10 week rest. Can't recommend on present form but a chance and a watching brief for me.
8 TERRIBLE GULCH - Well beaten in both c runs to date, drawn in 11 and not likely.
9 FIRST SUGAR - Well beaten in first two runs on the c but improved somewhat to be a 6l 3rd over 1200 last time here. Appie gives him a light weight and turf form has improved a little recently. Can't be discounted but was well beaten in first run out of the maidens lto on turf and not enough there to convince me to support him.
10 SUGAR RAY - 1-1-2 in 13 c runs and 0-0-1 in 4 c/d. Not usually beaten far and Fradd retains the ride but another high draw won't make life easier. Likely to be in the vicinity again but not one I could back to win.
12 CHEDWIN PARK - Yet to finish in the top 3 in 6 c visits but run creditably in some and had some poor draws in his last 3 runs here. Cracks a decent draw in 2 this time and the appie helps give him a light weight. Not to be overlooked.
13 USHKADEL - Well beaten in recent runs on this c and is 0-1-1 in 9 c/d runs. Has a high draw in 11 and not a likely winner imo.
14 BURNT AMBER - Beaten 40l in only c run when returning from a 15 week rest. Is on 2nd run after an 11 week rest here but will have to show better before I would show interest.
Another tricky race. Silver Specialist is somewhat tempting as his name stood out in this field but will need to show a little more than he has of late before I could follow him again with confidence. Plenty others have chances and in the end I have decided to take a chance with Chedwin Park and hope the good draw brings him a change of luck on the surface... CHEDWIN PARK x SILVER SPECIALIST x KRUGER GOLD
Be(s)t of luck to all (tu)
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