Question for Higher Grade Punters...

Ben-Hur Wrote:

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> 35000/10000
> 15000/10000
> profit 4100


chech your maths...its 4100 if horse B wins..and just under 23000 if horse A wins

RACING GURU Wrote:

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> Ben-Hur Wrote:
>

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>

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> > 35000/10000
> > 15000/10000
> > profit 4100
>
>
> chech your maths...its 4100 if horse B wins..and
> just under 23000 if horse wins


yes I'm sorry.R4100 will be lower of the two
that is roughly 20%

hibernia Wrote:

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> your forgetting the built in bookmakers % usually
> about 2% so your betting a 33.3% but the bookies
> think that it has a 31% chance of winning,so your
> on a loser straight away,unless you have an edge
> over the bookies
>
> just thought i would confuse things ()


I said this was a higher grade question, not an advanced grade question hibs. We'll ignore the bookies take to simplify things.

you assume to that the 2 favoured horses cant get beet..... the scenario you paint happen on thursday.....

R156 - Race 4 - R 80000 - MAIDEN PLATE MI CASA PERFORMING LIVE AT THE EMERALD CUP
For all Maidens - 1200m
No Horse Jockey Trainer Al/Bl Kg Dr Fin Dist Time OP SP
2 MAGIC OF ROME Raymond Danielson C E Erasmus A 60.0 5 1 0.00 77.05 10/1 29/1
9 SUB SHAAWES Fanie Chambers W H Tolmay A 58.0 10 2 1.25 77.30 7/10 8/10 F
10 BRAD'S SURGE Francois Naude B P Maroun A 58.0 4 3 6.00 78.24 29/1 22/1
7 JUST A THOUGHT Robbie Fradd S J Gray A B 60.0 3 4 8.50 78.75 10/1 9/1
8 TRANSLATOR Chase Maujean C Laird A 58.0 9 5 9.00 78.85 18/10 3/1
3 TEXAS TIGER Evert Pheiffer D Rahilly A 60.0 1 6 12.00 79.47 29/1 29/1
1 ROYAL STOCK Gunter Wrogemann C J Maree A 60.0 6 7 14.00 79.89 6/1 10/1
4 CRYSTAL SILVANO Karl Zechner G M Alexander A 60.0 7 8 17.00 80.53 45/1 49/1
5 KING'S CODE Donavan Yeo R P Lerena A B 60.0 2 9 21.50 81.50 55/1 49/1
12 REBEL WITH A CAUSE Julius Mariba (0.0) C Binda A B 58.0 8 10 22.00 81.61 36/1 25/1
6 COMBAT CAT Doctor Sifiso Lembethe L Kruger A 60.0 12 11 35.00 84.57 90/1 90/1
11 FIERCE ALLEGIANCE Randall Simons C Binda A B 58.0 11 12 39.00 85.52 36/1 19/1


ask the punters on thursday who get the royal you now what when wallace tolmay horse run like the drunken sailor. with no disrespect these higher grade question has no right answer

flash

a few years ago betfair did a study of horse that shorten vs horses that drift

results as follows:

1: after 1 year if you had backed every single horse that shortened by more than 2 points to a level stake you would have been - £5000 odd
2: if you had backed every single horse that drifted by more than 2 points to a level stake you would have been + £1800 odd

easy i think i say this story before. many year ago i have horse with the SARGENT MAJOR as he was call then stanley fereira. this is be fore he have his problems he has stables by new market and he is in hot form. he have a 1st timer that is show good good work but he has two horse in race the other he ran 2nd or 3rd the run before. stanley put rhys van wyk on the horse who has run before and he put the appy on the 1st timer. now in those day the loveday tatts is place to go if you want the punt and we all go through the wednesday morning. the same day divine act is 1/3 to win a sprint so harry get greedy and take the double to win 100000. is money for jam and i get 20/1 no 14/1. the first runner eventually start 16/10 and the appy he win by 3 lengths look for the competition. harry is now counting hes money. divine act is shorten to 1/5. the horse break through the gates and run 200m then get reload and loose the race to a 20/1 shot colour sensation train by the now banned zaki trainer i think is dom zaki brother or cousin he only train for the late teddy zaki. from that day i never try to get clever again. every one is cheering and go party while harry want to jump off ponte.

The question has laid down certain facts ,which in the context of this answer you have to assume has been decided (rightly or wrongly)
ie.you believe that it is a 2 horse race and both have a 33.3% chance of winning.

If 2 horses each have a 33,3% chance ,you back the 7/2 shot................(you are getting a price as if the horses chance was only 22%)......................as homepunt says ,its a no brainer!

flash,

for me a bloke that loves the tote and exotics DRIFTERS are VITAL to my play. You see the "majority" of clevers hate drifters so they copper them in the exactas and other multiple bets BUT mainly exactas. The most money i win is without doubt in exotics and specifically exactas. I dont play exactas all the time or every race, my criteria is quite firm but when i do one of the things i look for is drifters and then include them in the 1st and 2nd place as bankers.

In the UK this works quite well, the USA is also quite good for this. In SA a drifer i would say 30% of the time is not only a drifter but stinking no good. This makes the challenge tougher in SA.

easy Wrote:

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> flash,
>
> for me a bloke that loves the tote and exotics
> DRIFTERS are VITAL to my play. You see the
> "majority" of clevers hate drifters so they copper
> them in the exactas and other multiple bets BUT
> mainly exactas. The most money i win is without
> doubt in exotics and specifically exactas. I dont
> play exactas all the time or every race, my
> criteria is quite firm but when i do one of the
> things i look for is drifters and then include
> them in the 1st and 2nd place as bankers.
>
> In the UK this works quite well, the USA is also
> quite good for this. In SA a drifer i would say
> 30% of the time is not only a drifter but stinking
> no good. This makes the challenge tougher in SA.


Easy ,I have had some of my best returns on drifters .................I count on the fact that horses can't read.......lol
It does depend on how you judge the "Intent" as Loopy would put it!

The price of the dutch before the changes is 5/10 (66.67%)

The price of the dutch after the changes is 6/10 (62.2%)

I would dutch them both at a total cost of 6/10, or 100/165. Or, similarly, to make R100 profit irrespective of which one wins I would punt R106 on the 15/10 shot (159/106) and R59 on the 7/2 shot (206/59).

easy Wrote:

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> flash
>
> a few years ago betfair did a study of horse that
> shorten vs horses that drift
>
> results as follows:
>
> 1: after 1 year if you had backed every single
> horse that shortened by more than 2 points to a
> level stake you would have been - £5000 odd
> 2: if you had backed every single horse that
> drifted by more than 2 points to a level stake you
> would have been + £1800 odd

Very interesting easy. Some 20 years ago I did a similar study on SA racing. The "drifters" also did better than the horses that shortened although results were not as profound as the Betfair study. Horses that drifted dramatically fared poorly though ( like from 1-1 to 5-1 ).

For me if im confident its a 2 horse race I take an exacta banker favourite and a straight win bet on the 7/2 horse