Question for Higher Grade Punters...

Englander Wrote:

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> This is a no brainer as Homepunt says, you would
> always have to back the English - particularly
> one that talks a lot of sense (care LD, could
> offend someone with that name )
>
> You find the best one of the rest that are fairly
> weak and do it each-way and hope its a race in
> South Africa <


Top of the morning to you Englander
Just to let you know that here we are excited about Summers approach.Warm weather is what we are about here and of course our beautiful beaches
But what was interesting was your comment yesterday
Please do tell me who has this moniker that you refer to above

Lucky_Dude Wrote:

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>
> So which horse do we bet on? Extra marks will be
> given for good reasons...The answer to follow
> after I've read some of your posts

we forgot to look at which jock gets the ride

if marcus rides the 12/10 and the appie rides the 7-2......i tkink u knw who gets my money
if appie rides the 12/10 and marcus the 7-2.........will still go with marcus
if striker rides the 12/10 and marcus the 7-2.......will take exacta boxed or will make a quartet/trifecta

basically if the horse gets claimed and a top jock is riding back it imho just dont blame me if it loses()

Very interesting to see the various maths amongst punters.
If we take the hypothetical case provided ,and assuming you get your assessments accurately(which should already include stable,Jockey etc).,you can easily see why money management plays such a important part in making a profit:
Remembering that punting is over a period of time so
a) if you always get 7/2 about a 33,3% chance,you will show a profit with a 1 in 3 strike rate
b) if you dutch,as suggested by some,you are getting 6/10 the pair ,but as the rest of the field also has a 33,3% chance (ie.1 in 3) , you will show a loss over time with the resulting 2 in 3 strike rate!

We're not factoring the long-term. Only this race..

Depending on the field find a horse outside of these that can run in to the places. Probably find better than 15/10 in value for a top 4 outside of these 2 and then you dont have to split hairs.

For the exact scenario dutching would be the obvious bet.

Mac Wrote:

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> We're not factoring the long-term. Only this
> race..

Mac,how you bet is your business ,but even if it's a one off, you still had a 33,3% chance of losing twice as much money.............but whatever!

Merely pointing out the maths.

Answer...

If you selected Engelsman Praat Twak at 7/2

100% score, a clear overlay.


If you dutched them, 50%. You were half right.

rule of thumb is stay out race when there are joint favourites in the event

longshotrot Wrote:

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> rule of thumb is stay out race when there are
> joint favourites in the event


I have come across this often
Could you explain the idea-logic behind this please

longshotrot Wrote:

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> rule of thumb is stay out race when there are
> joint favourites in the event

Banker both to run 1st in a quartet