The Madji Wrote:
> I know on ratings and at the weights Arctic Sun
> has no chance, but on it's last start (same day,
> course and distance as Love Struck) Arctic Sun
> GIVING Love Struck 3kg's would have beaten him by
> 4 lengths.... Yes, I anticipate Love Struck will
> come on a good few lengths on that run but I still
> fancy Arctic Sun to run into the placings at 3/1 a
> fixed place.
>
> Of course, Link Man anywhere near peak form would
> make this a no race . But 7yr old coming off a 6
> month break and drawn 12 of 12 ????
Stole my thunder a bit there - I think Arctic Sun huge value (especially for a place) - even if Love Struck improves and Link Man (now drawn 10) overcomes the draw AND returns to his best, I still think AS (best over this trip and racing fit) should finish 3rd as most of the others are probably using this as prep runs, and the rest seems held on form. Striker (surprsingly :S) takes the ride on Royal Bencher, so that could perhaps run into the places if more or less ready after a long rest.
In the first imo (and I of course I take note of what Brass is tipping) Classic Traveller is no value, was beaten first time out by a horse that lost 5 lengths at the start and just beat a horse that finished unplaced in Kimberley next time out - so for me much better value in Twilight Eclipse (like Bayern I'm hoping that all the eggs have been sold out by this time)
I also like Desert Raptor in the 4th, but this is very competitve - not much between DR and Aegis-Fang (looks the better value at 11/1 and 2.22/1 a place) - and also I took some of the 14/1 on offer yesterday about Rocky Stallone (now trades at a much more realistic price)
Hurrcane Velvet place chance in the 5th (however offered at a disappointing 1/10 a place when compared to her win odds of 18/1) - ran to a 78 imo last time out, so not badly in with all except Admiral's Eye on official ratings - but also have to mention that imo these 'official ratings' comes down to not much more than 'educated thumb sucks' at this time of the year - so if I can get 5/2 a place I would consider a bet on HV; don't really see why Ash Cloud finds support (donning the egg helmet again) as imo she really struggled to beat a very poor field in her maiden win
Lastly just to remind everyone that Mr Ferraris surprised a few people (including me) with 2 winners (at relatively 'big' prices) on Tuesday - so
even though there does not seem to be much interest in his 2 first timers Mrs Hancock and Brandewyn, I'd certainly not discount them.
Enjoy (tu)
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