moon of rangoon arctic sun merit ratings

these two horses have met a few times and never been much to separate them but on sat they were both thrown into a wfa group 3 race where the first 4 past the post bear the brunt of the handicaper...result moon of rangoon finishes 4th 0.15 ahead of arctic sun in 5th ..moon of rangoon goes from a rating of 93 to a 104 and arctic sun courtesy of running out the top 4 stays the same of a 94...

Very harsh

thats called placing your horses in the right races...thats how horses like shogunner,etc...had high merit ratings because of 1 placed run in a feature...it could be a fluke run...but they r penalised ,alright...then they come into a graduation...thrown in at the weights..and get beat..merit ratings are deceptive....alway dont look at the MR on face value...see where it was earned and against what...and also see what was behind...thats crucial

hibernia Wrote:

---

> Very harsh


why?the trainers know the conditions of the races and by running them they basically saying we good enough to be competitive in them at those conditions..it is not the handicapers fault tjat limits or caps are put on to handicapping but a few trainers who limit or restrict them doing their jobs correctly...

when a guy like darryl marree..tells me he spends 6 hours on a card studying...this is exactly what he looks for..painstaking i know..but to see where the mr was earned and against what level of opposition,,,a mr 72 today...could be quite different to a mr72 tommorrow....depth wise

RACING GURU Wrote:

---

> when a guy like darryl marree..tells me he spends
> 6 hours on a card studying...this is exactly what
> he looks for..painstaking i know..but to see where
> the mr was earned and against what level of
> opposition,,,a mr 72 today...could be quite
> different to a mr72 tommorrow....depth wise


That is exactly the opportunity still available to punters........generally my bets in handicap races are limited to where my rating and the official one is different..........as Pirates says, that difference is often a result of not been hindered by the rules!

(Zambezi Torrent's rating has increased to 108 after Sat and ran to at least a 117,and is the highest rated 3 yr old in the land on my ratings..............the only reservation is that some of the others have not run against the "+6" brigade so may well be relatively higher)

The rules really need looking at :S

As I have said before, this race is a nightmare to rate - and imo a mistake may have been made here - on these ratings, it follows that Wagner ran to 105 - which is 4 points higher than his rating before the race (already increased by the silly '6 points increase') - this over a trip way short of his best.

I'm taking the view that the ratings should be based (line horse) on the horses that came into the race racing fit i.e. Arctic Sun and Moon of Rangoon; it is imo reasonable to assume that the horses coming off rests would not be 100% and therefore likely to run below their best ratings and also 'assuming' that Love Struck ran way below his best (2nd run after a rest :S); so I came up with the following:

Potala Palace - 98
Link Man - 96
Wagner - 95
Moon of Rangoon - 94 (93 before the race)
Arctic Sun - 93 - (94 before the race)
Love Struck - 93
Pierneef - 89 (88 before the race)

So I think Moon of Rangoon really got done here - time will tell as always (tu)

Frodo Wrote:

---

> The rules really need looking at :S
>
> As I have said before, this race is a nightmare to
> rate - and imo a mistake may have been made here -
> on these ratings, it follows that Wagner ran to
> 105 - which is 4 points higher than his rating
> before the race (already increased by the silly '6
> points increase') - this over a trip way short of
> his best.
>
> I'm taking the view that the ratings should be
> based (line horse) on the horses that came into
> the race racing fit i.e. Arctic Sun and Moon of
> Rangoon; it is imo reasonable to assume that the
> horses coming off rests would not be 100% and
> therefore likely to run below their best ratings
> and also 'assuming' that Love Struck ran way below
> his best (2nd run after a rest :S); so I came up
> with the following:
>
> Potala Palace - 98
> Link Man - 96
> Wagner - 95
> Moon of Rangoon - 94 (93 before the race)
> Arctic Sun - 93 - (94 before the race)
> Love Struck - 93
> Pierneef - 89 (88 before the race)
>
> So I think Moon of Rangoon really got done here -
> time will tell as always (tu)


your figures do look more realistic

Frodo Wrote:

---

> The rules really need looking at :S
>
> As I have said before, this race is a nightmare to
> rate - and imo a mistake may have been made here -
> on these ratings, it follows that Wagner ran to
> 105 - which is 4 points higher than his rating
> before the race (already increased by the silly '6
> points increase') - this over a trip way short of
> his best.
>
> I'm taking the view that the ratings should be
> based (line horse) on the horses that came into
> the race racing fit i.e. Arctic Sun and Moon of
> Rangoon; it is imo reasonable to assume that the
> horses coming off rests would not be 100% and
> therefore likely to run below their best ratings
> and also 'assuming' that Love Struck ran way below
> his best (2nd run after a rest :S); so I came up
> with the following:
>
> Potala Palace - 98
> Link Man - 96
> Wagner - 95
> Moon of Rangoon - 94 (93 before the race)
> Arctic Sun - 93 - (94 before the race)
> Love Struck - 93
> Pierneef - 89 (88 before the race)
>
> So I think Moon of Rangoon really got done here -
> time will tell as always (tu)

Frodo,on another thread you commented about being a hard race to rate............I agree 100% and drew a line through the race immediately ..........I will be amazed if that form means a thing ,over time!

rob faux Wrote:

---

> Frodo Wrote:
>

---

>

---

> > The rules really need looking at :S
> >
> > As I have said before, this race is a nightmare
> to
> > rate - and imo a mistake may have been made here
> -
> > on these ratings, it follows that Wagner ran to
> > 105 - which is 4 points higher than his rating
> > before the race (already increased by the silly
> '6
> > points increase') - this over a trip way short
> of
> > his best.
> >
> > I'm taking the view that the ratings should be
> > based (line horse) on the horses that came into
> > the race racing fit i.e. Arctic Sun and Moon of
> > Rangoon; it is imo reasonable to assume that
> the
> > horses coming off rests would not be 100% and
> > therefore likely to run below their best
> ratings
> > and also 'assuming' that Love Struck ran way
> below
> > his best (2nd run after a rest :S); so I came
> up
> > with the following:
> >
> > Potala Palace - 98
> > Link Man - 96
> > Wagner - 95
> > Moon of Rangoon - 94 (93 before the race)
> > Arctic Sun - 93 - (94 before the race)
> > Love Struck - 93
> > Pierneef - 89 (88 before the race)
> >
> > So I think Moon of Rangoon really got done here
> -
> > time will tell as always (tu)
>
> Frodo,on another thread you commented about being
> a hard race to rate............I agree 100% and
> drew a line through the race immediately
> ..........I will be amazed if that form means a
> thing ,over time!

that form will never stnd the test of time...its obvious...especially as both MofR and AS...were both in their correct places....before their race..and to a degree even after their race..result wise..the pitfalls of conditions and regulations

The first 3 have all also come off a break so would surely be no where near peak fitness. As Frodo says an impossible Race to rate accurately. Feel sorry for the connections of Moon of Rangoon who will battle in merit raced races for a while but that is the risk you run having horses running in these graded races when coming in under heavy sufference.

shrek Wrote:

---

> The first 3 have all also come off a break so
> would surely be no where near peak fitness. As
> Frodo says an impossible Race to rate accurately.
> Feel sorry for the connections of Moon of Rangoon
> who will battle in merit raced races for a while
> but that is the risk you run having horses running
> in these graded races when coming in under heavy
> sufference.

Although out of his league in this run I gave him a squeak...... also based on the assumption that the better class horses in the race needed their runs.....funny how the handicappers do not see it this way.....he is defintly going to battle of this latest mark and the connections should surely lodge an objection......unless they feel that he is capable at a higher level.....:S