Vaal Sand Jottings - Thursday 17/10
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Vaal Sand Jottings - Thursday 17/10
11 years 7 months ago
Winning Form not entirely updated and a couple of strange happenings on Formgrids so possible I may have missed a run or two. Apologies (but tough lol) if so. Competitive card for the most part imo and I have taken a couple of chances but we'll see... 
As always, please put comments/selections on the daily thread. Be(s)t of luck to all (tu)
RACE 1 - 1000 MAIDEN
1 COPPER GAIA - has taken silver in both her c visits and both were over this d. Concern is that she has suffered heavy defeats in her last two turf runs, though I am not convinced she likes the turf track at the Vaal. Definite chance if repeating previous runs on the sand.
2 ROYAL MUMSIE - Naidoo/Lerena. Has achieved little on the turf in her 4 runs and the two breaks already is a concern, comes here having been off 27 weeks. Nothing in the breeding to suggest the sand will bring about improvement but trainer doing well recently on the surface and Lerena booked. Possible small e/w if the price suits.
3 MERLINS GEM - Not the worst turf form but nothing in the breeding to say she will definitely like the sand but good chance if so doing.
4 SPOTAKOVA - Peter. Only decent run was a 1.5l 3rd over c/d when returning from a 13 week rest, returns from a 12 week rest here.
5 SOFT SAND - Erasmus/Brown. 2nd run over this c was probably too far and better judged on her debut run which saw her finish 1.25l behind Spotakova who had a fitness advantage then having had previous runs.
6 IM NO MICKEY MOUSE - No top 3s in 5 c runs, 4 over this d. Pass.
7 BUDDY'S FALCON - Beaten 16l (1000) and 16.5l (1450) in her 2 previous c visits. Pass.
8 SEEKING SEATTLE - Magner. No top 3s in 3 c runs and not within 12l of the winner in her last 3 starts. Pass.
9 AUNT ROSE - No single figure defeats in 4 c runs and nothing in the breeding to say the sand will bring about improvement. Pass.
10 EMPEROR'S SPIRIT - Shown little in 3 turf runs but the breeding suggests a chance she may do better on the sand. but no more than a watching brief for me.
11 FELAN - Spies/Chambers. Only once beaten (1.75l) less than 11.5l in 9 career runs and that was on the turf. Has tried and thus far failed to impress both here and at Bingo in 5 attempts.
12 BRIGHT HEART - Debut. Nothing in the breeding to reveal that she will be competitive. Watching brief.
13 MRS PIP - Goosen. Beaten 25.25l and 10l in her two c/d runs and 18l in only turf effort (1450). Pass.
14 PARK RIDGE - Lucky H. Debut. Represents the in form Lucky H stable and the breeding suggests a very good chance she will enjoy the surface. Hoping for a decent price (but didn't get it lol).
15 PRETTY STRONG - Erasmus. Well beaten on only turf run, gets the alumites on but nothing in the breeding implies to me that improvement will be forthcoming on the sand and seemingly not stable elect.
16 QUILICIOUS - Moffatt/W'man. Debut. Combo to be respected and there is a little in the breeding that suggests she could enjoy the surface, possibly worth a small e/w if the price is big enough. (Has been heavily supported but seems to have currently stopped around the area that possibly indicates e/w money).
17 SHARDUL - Reserve. Returning from a 16 week rest to make sand debut after achieving little in 6 turf runs, nothing in the breeding to suggest she will be a star on the sand.
18 FOR YOUR EYES ONLY - Reserve. Naidoo. Puts in the occasional decent effort but a c record of 0-1-1 in 12 runs does not inspire great confidence.
PARK RIDGE x QUILICIOUS x SOFT SAND x COPPER GAIA
RACE 2 - 1450 CONDITIONS PLATE
1 FORMATION - SJG/Lerena. Supremely consistent, only failing to hit the top 3 once in 18 c runs and is 3-3-0 in 6 runs over c/d. Broke a frustrating run of 8 consecutive defeats with a comfortable victory over c/d lto. Beaten 1.5l by Magic Smoke in penultimate but has a 2kg swing and that could be enough to reverse the placings.
2 REBEL QUEEN - Spies/Chambers. Decent campaigner with a 2-3-2 record in 11 c runs and has finished ahead of Formation in previous runs over 1200 and 1450. That said, she was beaten 4.25l by Magic Smoke 3 runs back and 29l by Formation lto, is better than that last run suggests but, on current form and being slightly worse off at the weights with both, it is and hard to see form reversals.
3 MAGIC SMOKE - Azzie/Strydom. 3-3-1 in 15 c runs but only 1-2-0 in 7 runs over c/d though in penultimate got up to beat Formation by 1.5l but is now 2kgs worse off. Strydom retains the ride and likely it will be close between them again.
5 NEGEV - Goosen. A colossal weight on her second c appearance gave her little chance lto imo. No less than 13kgs less to carry here but somewhat difficult to assess. I am not yet convinced she loves the surface but in with a chance if I'm wrong.
6 ARABIAN PRINCESS - Sand debut. Breeding suggests a very good chance she will take to the surface. Is coming off a 10 week rest but has a light weight and worth a small e/w stab if a big price.
7 DALALAAT - Moffatt. Looks well held on recent runs and unlikely to feature in this field. Pass.
8 SECRET MAGOK - Pettigrew/MVR. Something of an unknown quantity at this level but I was impressed with her win lto albeit against weaker. Given that the market leaders might give her price a boost I'm going to take a chance on her.
SECRET MAGOK x FORMATION x MAGIC SMOKE but will include ARABIAN PRINCESS in exactas with SM and tris/quarts.
RACE 3 - 1600 MAIDEN
1 SHIRLA - Pettigrew/W'man. Strong combo but not stable elect. Run second three times in 7 c appearances with two of them coming in 4 efforts over c/d. Had Soukous and Calypso Girl 5l and 8l behind over c/d. Noble Wind was also further back but that run probably best ignored for NW who in the two previous runs had finished comfortably infront of Shirla, Unlikely winner imo but place chance,
2 MIGHTY MO - SJG/Lerena. Third in both c starts when running on over 1000 and 1200. Had a 10 week rest and is upped 400 in d but not convinced, based on turf runs, that it will suit and the 10 draw won't make life any easier. No more than a watching brief for me.
3 NOBLE WIND - Disappointing lto when beaten 15l but that run probably best ignored as previous efforts had been much better. The disappointing thing was that was her first decent draw for some time and now finds herself back in 9. Has a modest 0-1-1 in 5 runs over c/d so no superstar but does however hold a few of these rivals on previous runs and in with a chance if back to best.
4 DERAQUA - Naidoo. Beaten 11l on c debut lto (7.75l behind Silent Force) and did little to impress in 4 turf runs. Not for me.
5 ARIELLA - Spies. Debut. Probably the biggest pointer is that Chambers is not up. Nothing in the breeding to confirm she will enjoy the sand. Is well drawn in 2 but can be no more than a watching brief for me.
6 SOUKOUS - Moffatt/Strydom. Third in both c runs to date but in penultimate run was 5l back of Shirla who is now 5kgs better off. Has a place chance but even with Striker up hard to see them winning from the 12 box.
7 CALYPSO GIRL - Erasmus/Brown. One third in 4 c runs but not been within 7l of the winner. Brown up so possibly the stable's strongest but will need to show improvement before I show an interest.
8 FRENCH APPROVAL - Erasmus. Ran 2nd on c debut but has not been within 7.5l of the winner in 4 c appearances, seemingly not stable elect and unlikely to see the winner's enclosure.
10 WRAP ME UP - Azzie. Sand debut. Beaten 13.5l last turf run and at least double that in previous two. Breeding implies though that there is a decent chance she will like the surface but the jockey booking does not suggest to me huge amounts of intent. Has the 1 box though and if a big price then the R1 e/w idiot will make an appearance.
12 SILENT FORCE - MDK. 2nd in both c runs to date over 1200 and though perhaps not up against the strongest of fields they were not bad efforts considering she raced from draws of 7/12 and 12/12. Sin Latigo 3l back in last run. Takes a 400 hike in trip and if she stays then must have a good chance.
13 SIN LATIGO - Spies/Chambers. C debut. Stable elect and improved to be 3l off SF lto over 1200 having been beaten convincingly twice before taking an 18 week rest. She may be better suited to this d and that last run may have brought her on, does not seem likely on the form to date but could improve for the extra 400 in d and has a good draw in 3. Depending on price may be worth a small saver.
NOBLE WIND x SILENT FORCE x SIN LATIGO
RACE 4 - 1800 MAIDEN
Having started this race and seeing how poor it is I stopped. Ajuba has had two seconds over 1600 where he comfortably holds a number of rivals but, those runs are split by a poor effort over this d when he was beaten by some of these. He has run the d and further on the turf and though nothing of note he was not disgraced. Perhaps best to forgive and forget that penultimate run, especially as he had a wide draw that day but, it is a concern. On the other two runs he should really win this with ease but, personally, I won't risk it as he is likely to be a very short price. if he does mess up then perhaps The Bucket Boy or Perfect Vision could take advantage. Fort Dixy if repeating his penultimate effort would feature and I don't discount any of the rest given the weakness of the field but their form really is very poor... AJUBA x THE BUCKET BOY x PERFECT VISION
RACE 5 - 1800 H'CAP-68
1 MEXICAN GLORY - Matchett. 3-3-2 in 25 c runs. With a 15/16 draw, was beaten 4.5l by Elegant Bay over 1600 which, at the weights, compares favourably with those who ran against EB in August over 1800. But, in her penultimate run, she was beaten 4.25l into 5th in her only attempt at this d finishing 1.25l behind Olympic Goal and is now 0.5kg better off with that rival. Certainly not discounted but I just fear the 1800 is that step too far in d.
2 PRETTY LADY - Returned to the sand two runs back (maiden in a h'cap) with a respectable 4.05l 4th to Elegant Bay over c/d. Was 0.05l behind Beautiful Dawn and 1.8l behind Olympic Spring but is now 1.5kgs and 2.5kgs worse off respectively. Followed that by comfortably winning her maiden by 4.5l over c/d but does look held. certainly by OS, and has a wide draw in 10 to contend with here. Possible but something to find.
3 BEAUTIFUL DAWN - For the most part, a consistent performer but one that does not win very often. Has a 1-6-2 record in 24 c runs and is 0-1-1 in 3 c/d efforts. In each of her runs over 1800 she has finished behind Olympic Spring 3.5l (now 2kkgs beter off), 5l (4.5kgs worse off) and in their last meeting, behind Elegant Bay, 1.75l (1kg worse off, Striker was on OS and is now on BD) and as mentioned above, in that run PL was 0.05l back. Has to have a chance, especially with PS retaining the ride. but even if discounting all else, would seem to need OS to run below par.
4 OLYMPIC SPRING - Kenny/Lerena. Very good over c/d with a 2-2-0 record in her 5 attempts in an overall c record of 2-3-1 in 14 runs. Form with BD mentioned above. Hefty defeats in last two over 1600 but only 0.5l off the runner-up (3rd won nto) in penultimate and 2l off third lto. In both those runs finished 0.75l ahead of OG, the latter now being 1kg better off than on their last meeting but in the first of those runs OS was reported as not striding out and was slow away in the second. Albeit, off a lower weight, back in June she ran Miss K to 0.35l and was 2.2l ahead of EB and if she could recapture that form this would probably be a no contest. Good chance if at her best.
5 STAR VOYAGER - No top 3s in 13 c runs and that stat coupled with the fact that she is trying this d for the first time in 40 career runs does not fill me with confidence. Did run over 1450 lto when reported making steady headway but you have to go back almost 3 years to her 4th career run to see she was beaten 33l over 2000 and next run suffered a 14l defeat over 1600, both on turf, before being put back over sprints. Can't be recommended on known facts.
6 OLYMPIC GOAL - Spies/Chambers. Close behind OS in their last two meetings over 1600 but with OS possibly having excuses those statistics may flatter her somewhat. Has only one third in 5 c runs and does look held on overall form. Chance but definitely not the most likely imo.
7 WOODLAND FIRE - Won her maiden over 1600 on her first visit to the c but not been in the top 3 in 4 c runs since, all over 1600, and has been beaten by double-figure lengths on each occasion. Did run a silver over this d in penultimate but that was at Bingo. Unlikely.
8 SEATTLE FAIRY - Won on debut but has struggled thereafter with only one third in 6 c runs since. That 3rd was in her penultimate run, over 1450, but she was 4.75l behind BD and is now 5kgs worse off. Has been beaten over 10l in each of her 3 runs at 1600 or 1800 and hard to make a winning case for her here.
9 DARE TO BE GRAND - Had three disappointing turf runs before a 15 week rest and a change of stable seemed to revitalise her and she returned from that break to run a 3.75l 4th over 1600 here last week having been supported from 35/1 to 27/2. On collateral through Sucha Wonder, BD would seem well ahead but that is based on a run over 1450 when SW was drawn widest. DTBG also raced three wide in her run last week and though the 8 draw is not the best hopefully she will not have to repeat that. The appie helps give her a low weight and given the encouraging sand debut she has a chance of taking the spoils.
10 BERMUDA BOWL - Moffatt. Only one third in 7 c visits and looks well held by a few on his run behind Elegant Bay. In penultimate visit again finished well behind OS. No reason why she should suddenly improve and unlikely to feature.
Not the easiest to decipher. Prices are now up and even given the Striker factor, for me Beautiful Dawn is very short in the market considering Olympic Spring has beaten her over this c/d in their last three meetings. Everything points to OS but my concern is whether she is currently at the top of her game, certainly the run back in June looks on paper to be better than what she has produced since and though that may still be good enough, I doubt Olympic Goal would run her so close if she was firing on all cylinders. If she isn't then Pretty Lady must also enter the equation as she could be improving on the surface and a reversal of the form on her sand debut is not impossible though the wide draw is a concern. There are others too in with a shout but, at the prices, I'm going to chance Dare To Be Grand and hope she comes on for that last run, of course there is the possibility that she will suffer from the 2nd run after a rest syndrome but my hunch is to give her a try... DARE TO BE GRAND x OLYMPIC SPRING x BEAUTIFUL DAWN
RACE 6 - 1000 H'CAP-98
1 FURIOUS DANCER - Naidoo/Lerena. Won her first 4 over c/d, then took a bronze but not been in the top 3 in 4 subsequent c/d runs. Gets 4.5kg pull for being 5l behind Hang Fire lto but was also behind a number of these rivals in her penultimate run. On current form can't be recommended but if returning to her best then could be involved.
2 NICE STRIDE - Erasmus. Won well on his sand debut over this d 4 runs back and has since 4,5l 4th to Here Comes Billy over 1200 when drawn 12/12, a 2.75l 5th back over this c/d before finishing 7th in the Emerald Cup which was probably too far. In the penultimate finished very close to Hang Fire, Cape Winter and Stavinsky and has a 2kg pull with the first two who were only 1l ahead (same weight differential with Stavinsky who was 0.25l back). In his debut win he beat both Benbow (2.25l behind and 2.5kgs better off) and Hang Fire 2.3l behind and 2kgs better off). Has to have a chance.
3 BENBOW - Erasmus/Brown. 4-3-3 in 24 c/d runs and is seemingly stable elect. Close up with a few of these behind Maji Moto three runs back but was beaten 3.5l and 1.75l by Cape Winter and HF respectively. He is now 2kgs better off with both but seems to have a little to find to reverse the form with CW.
4 CAPE WINTER - Naidoo/Fradd. Returned from a 42 week rest to run a 1.8l 4th behind Maji M with a few of these rivals in close proximity but came on for that run to win lto with a few of these behind, Hang Fire getting closest. He is 2-2-0 in 5 over c/d with the other being his 4th when returning from the break. Looks to be a big runner and may still have a little more to come on 3rd run after that rest.
5 HANG FIRE - 4-1-4 in 15 c/d runs and ended a long stretch of near misses when winning lto over 1200. He has a mass of form with others and plenty close calls but the most telling is probably his last effort over c/d when beaten 1.75l by CW, he will probably find that form difficult to reverse and may also find one o two others too quick for him on the day at the weights but not without a chance and likely to be in the vicinity with Strydom aboard.
6 ESCAPE CLAUSE - Zaki/Chambers. 3-2-2 in 13 c runs and successful in his only c/d run in June last year. Has been campaigned over 1200 recently and lto was beaten 3.5l by Stavinsky with no change here to the weight differentials. The drop back to the minimum trip may help and he is on 3rd run after a rest. Not chanceless but a watching brief for me.
7 WINTER'S SONG - Peter. Had a 29 week rest and then a 51 week rest and is well held by a few here on his 2 comeback runs. If at his best then it would be a different story but continues to be a watching brief until he makes a statement regarding a return to form.
8 SUGAR AND SHAKE - Not placed in 2 c starts and beaten 9.5l by Panjo on her last visit over 1450. Not convinced the drop in d will suit, watching brief.
9 VULCAN - Kenny. Made a fair sand debut lto when a fading 2,75l 4th to HF over 1200. Had the advantage of the 1 box then but even so was extremely quick over about the first 600 and would of gone much better but for hanging his head almost sideways for much of the way and having to switch. That was off a 18 week rest so he should be even sharper here and has a 2.5kg pull with HF if Simons can keep his mind on the job then he might take some catching.
10 DENNIS THE MENACE - Zaki. Hit a purple patch between April and July but last few have been somewhat disappointing. Had a small break of 7 weeks which might have helped. Has a 1-1-2 record in 6 c ruins and a silver in his only c/d effort. That was a 0.05l 2nd to HF and with the appie up he is now no less than 6.5kgs better off. If all is well then that must give him a very good chance.
11 STAVINSKY - Erasmus. Has been in very good recent form but has only 1 silver in 4 efforts over c/d. He was however only beaten 3ls in his penultimate run and though he was behind HF, CW and NS only 1.25l separated them. He has a 2kg pull with HF and CW and no change with NS. Has to have a chance but may struggle with CW considering that one was returning from a lengthy rest.
A very decent and competitive sprint and there is only one that I think has no chance. there are three that interest me a little more than the others. Firstly, Dennis The Menace who has an extremely light weight and if he can reproduce his form of earlier in the year must have a big chance. Secondly, Cape Winter, he seems to hold a few of the main contenders here and might have a little more to come. Thirdly, Vulcan, whose early pace impressed me lto and may well be better suited to 1000 on the sand and again, with that last run potentially bringing him on he could be very dangerous. There are questions about DTM as to whether he is in full throttle at the moment so he could be a risk and the price is not big enough for me to chance. Logic says Cape Winter but the "nag" says Vulcan. I have rarely seen Hang Fire quite so far back after 600 and though I have concerns with the "hanging head" I'm going with the nag... VULCAN x CAPE WINTER x DENNIS THE MENACE
RACE 7 - 1000 MAIDEN
1 GABRONZA - Azzie/Lerena. Seems to have lost form of late. Made a blistering start over 1200 lto but faded very badly and was beaten 7.25l by Mr Alfonso over c/d in his penultimate outing. He is better than that and has a 3.5kg swing in the weights but will need to show his stamina and ability again after fading in his last three starts. A watching brief for me until so doing.
2 MR ALFONSO - Lucky H. Yet to finish out of the top 3 in his 7 c runs and is 1-1-2 in 4 over c/d. Won his last two runs over c/d with the blinkers on (and had a few of these rivals well beaten) before removing them and being beaten 6.25l over 1200. Blinkers are back on and a return to this d make him , despite a hike in the weights, very much the one to beat for me.
3 HOWHIGHCANUFLY - Magner. Has 3 seconds in 9 runs over c/d and, although he has put in some creditable efforts, I never get the feeling he is a likely winner. It is the same here, I doubt he will be far away, could even win but he is just not one that convinces me to support him.
4 MELLI MOU - Pettigrew/MVR. 1-1-2 in 4 c starts and one of each medal in his 3 over c/d. He was very disappointing on the turf though lto and four runs back was beaten 2l by Twilight Elva over c/d and there is no change in the weight differential. Not without a chance but not the most likely for me.
5 TWILIGHT ELVA - Won under Striker 4 runs back when beating MM by 2l. Lto was disappointing and the run will need to be ignored but, he is not the most consistent with his 2 wins in 8 c/d runs being his only top 3s in 15 c starts. If he responds to PS again then has a fair chance but a risk for me and I think others are safer options.
6 ANGEL GABRIEL - SJG. Ran a 2.25l 2nd in a decent field last week which was his first top 3 in 4 c runs so may be improving. he has a 3.5kg pull with MrA for a 4l defeat 3 runs back and though he has a shout my gut feeling is that it won't be enough to reverse the form.
7 SOCIETI - Goosen. Sand debut. Not the best turf form in his last 3 turf runs after winning on debut but, is this another Louis sharp one? Breeding suggests there is a good chance he will take to the surface and if so doing he has to have a chance. Returns from a 19 week rest but hoping the price will drift and then a nibble will be taken.
8 HIGHLAND LAD - Three 3rds in 8 runs over c/d is unlikely to be good enough here and he was 7.25l back of AG over 1200 last week and back in August was beaten 7.75l by MrA over c/d. Was better under Khumalo lto over c/d and he is back up here but not the most likely to be the one going to the winner's box imo.
9 PERFECT TRIP - Won maiden at the 2nd time of asking over c/d in a WR event and the field was not the strongest. Doubt the form of that run is strong enough for him to trouble the judge in this company.
10 SWING AWAY - Won his maiden here in his third career start but has since appeared 9 times on c (5 over c/d) without finishing in the top 3 and does much better at Bingo these days. Pass.
11 CONISTON GOLD - Not closer than 7.25l of the winner in his 3 c runs over 1000/1200 and I can't see that statistic improving here. Pass.
Mr Alfonso makes a lot of appeal here if only because, at least in part, the rest don't. I am tempted by LG's sand debutant but the rest is a concern and on what is known Mr A has to be the more sensible route. Howhighcanyoufly could be thereabouts as could Twilight Elva back under PS. Gabronza could stake a claim if recapturing form but it may be Angel Gabriel who gives the selection most to do as he seems to be steadily improving as do the stable... MR ALFONSO x ANGEL GABRIEL x SOCIETI
RACE 8 - 1450 B'CAP-66
1 VIRGIL CANE - 8l behind Velddrifter when drawn 10/10 and returning from a 27 week break was followed by a 30l beating over 1200 when drawn 11/12. A previous complete idiot selection I have had a miniscule nibble at 66s again, if only because if by some miracle he comes in this time and I was not on, the kick I would give myself would be very painful lol
2 OKLAHOMA TRIPPI - A 2.5l 2nd on sand debut was followed by his maiden win over 1200. Took a 14 week rest and was well beaten over 1600 before finishing a 4.25l 8th over 1450 with both Magic of Rome (1.5l) and King Scott (0.95l) infront, OT is now 2kg better off with both. If he needed both runs and comes here all guns blazing then he is in with a chance.
3 MAGIC OF ROME - Came out of the maidens at the 52nd attempt in penultimate run here over 1200 and followed that by running a decent 2.75l 4th to Passion Pleaser over c/d, finishing infront of MOR and KS, see above! Has a good draw in 2 and in with a chance.
4 FLAMING FORGE - Has won 2 of his 8 c visits including one of his two runs over c/d. That win came in his penultimate run when returning to the sand after a long absence. he is drawn 14 here but won that day by 3.5l when drawn 12/13. Up 7kgs on that win but had KS and Chedwin Park 5.25l and 8.25l back respectively. KS is 2.5kg better off and CP is 1.5kg worse off. If reproducing that run here is a big runner despite the wide draw again.
5 ESTANCIA - Magner. Won his maiden on c debut but no top 3s since in 4 c visits. Was beaten 7l by Velddrifter 3 runs back over c/d and in his penultimate run, was 5.5l behind King Scott over 1600 and gets only a 2kg pull though he has much the better draw of the two here. Not the likeliest but not completely chanceless.
6 LEVANTO - Zaki/Lerena. Visited the c three times as a maiden and took a third (beaten 14.5l) over c/d, 4th over 1000 and 6th (beaten 10.75l) over 1200. Has been running ok on the turf and finished 3rd lto after a 22 week rest. Drawn well in 4 and Lerena up but I am just not convinced he loves the surface and I'll take a watching brief.
7 TOBE TURF TERROR - Respectable 4.25l 5th to Velddrifter over c/d lto when coming out of the maidens. Finished (next to CP and) 3l behind KS and though there is no change to the weight differential he is much the better drawn of the three here and has the services of Striker to guide him. Chance.
8 CHEDWIN PARK - Erasmus/Brown. Consistent performer who has often been drawn wide and often struggles to put in a telling blow in those circumstances and unfortunately he is drawn 11 here. Romped home in penultimate over 1600 when drawn 5 but lto was a 4.3l 6th to Velddrifter 3.05l behind KS who was drawn in 2. KS is 1.5kgs better off. Always has a chance but the draw is a big concern again.
9 MYSTIC JET - Naidoo. Returned from a 10 week rest to make sand debut lto and finished a 7.5l 7th over 1200. May come on for the run but with a draw of 13 here I'd rather do a watching brief again here.
10 CELTIC KING - Won debut on sand on his second c run but since has finished outside the top 3 in all 6 c runs. Was 1.25l back of Strong Blaze lto over 1200 and is 2.5kgs worse off. With the 12 draw hard to see him staking a claim.
11 KING SCOTT - Not beaten more than 5.25l in his last 6 runs and has finished in the top 4 in 5 of those. Has faile dto take advantage of some improved draws recently and unfortunately now finds himself drawn 15. Was 1.55l behind Velddrifter lto with MOR 0.55l ahead (same weight differential) and OT 0.95l further back but the latter gets a 2kg pull. A chance but will be tough from that draw.
12 STRONG BLAZE - Beaten 4.75l over 1200 on c debut last time out which was a reasonable if unspectacular start. Overall form does not give any increase to the confidence levels and I'll continue a watching brief until there is more evidence.
13 SHOE HORN - Moffatt. Sand debut. Breeding suggests a chance he will take to the surface. Money for the stable's debutant in the opener so one might expect money for this one too if there was confidence. Even so, the idiot will nibble given the big price based on the breeding, he is drawn in poll and the fact that he does not seem the most consistent but has put in the occasional decent run on the turf.
14 FIRST SUGAR - One third in 4 c runs and that came when drawn 1 over 1200 and was still beaten 6l. Has been well beaten in his other 3 appearances and makes no appeal from the 10 box.
15 SMART ROYAL - Reserve. No top 3s in 3 c runs, comes off an 11 week rest and is drawn widest of all. Not likely to feature if getting a run.
16 CLEARLY KEEN - Reserve. No top 3s in 5 c runs and not likely to feature if getting a run.
Difficult end to proceedings with the draw possibly influential as both King Scott and Chedwin Park have seemed to struggle to overcome high draws previously. I'll go with Flaming Forge though to overcome it again though plenty in with a chance and a couple of idiot opportunities... FLAMING FORGE x MAGIC OF ROME x OKLAHOMA TRIPPI x TOBE TURF TERROR
As always, please put comments/selections on the daily thread. Be(s)t of luck to all (tu)RACE 1 - 1000 MAIDEN
1 COPPER GAIA - has taken silver in both her c visits and both were over this d. Concern is that she has suffered heavy defeats in her last two turf runs, though I am not convinced she likes the turf track at the Vaal. Definite chance if repeating previous runs on the sand.
2 ROYAL MUMSIE - Naidoo/Lerena. Has achieved little on the turf in her 4 runs and the two breaks already is a concern, comes here having been off 27 weeks. Nothing in the breeding to suggest the sand will bring about improvement but trainer doing well recently on the surface and Lerena booked. Possible small e/w if the price suits.
3 MERLINS GEM - Not the worst turf form but nothing in the breeding to say she will definitely like the sand but good chance if so doing.
4 SPOTAKOVA - Peter. Only decent run was a 1.5l 3rd over c/d when returning from a 13 week rest, returns from a 12 week rest here.
5 SOFT SAND - Erasmus/Brown. 2nd run over this c was probably too far and better judged on her debut run which saw her finish 1.25l behind Spotakova who had a fitness advantage then having had previous runs.
6 IM NO MICKEY MOUSE - No top 3s in 5 c runs, 4 over this d. Pass.
7 BUDDY'S FALCON - Beaten 16l (1000) and 16.5l (1450) in her 2 previous c visits. Pass.
8 SEEKING SEATTLE - Magner. No top 3s in 3 c runs and not within 12l of the winner in her last 3 starts. Pass.
9 AUNT ROSE - No single figure defeats in 4 c runs and nothing in the breeding to say the sand will bring about improvement. Pass.
10 EMPEROR'S SPIRIT - Shown little in 3 turf runs but the breeding suggests a chance she may do better on the sand. but no more than a watching brief for me.
11 FELAN - Spies/Chambers. Only once beaten (1.75l) less than 11.5l in 9 career runs and that was on the turf. Has tried and thus far failed to impress both here and at Bingo in 5 attempts.
12 BRIGHT HEART - Debut. Nothing in the breeding to reveal that she will be competitive. Watching brief.
13 MRS PIP - Goosen. Beaten 25.25l and 10l in her two c/d runs and 18l in only turf effort (1450). Pass.
14 PARK RIDGE - Lucky H. Debut. Represents the in form Lucky H stable and the breeding suggests a very good chance she will enjoy the surface. Hoping for a decent price (but didn't get it lol).
15 PRETTY STRONG - Erasmus. Well beaten on only turf run, gets the alumites on but nothing in the breeding implies to me that improvement will be forthcoming on the sand and seemingly not stable elect.
16 QUILICIOUS - Moffatt/W'man. Debut. Combo to be respected and there is a little in the breeding that suggests she could enjoy the surface, possibly worth a small e/w if the price is big enough. (Has been heavily supported but seems to have currently stopped around the area that possibly indicates e/w money).
17 SHARDUL - Reserve. Returning from a 16 week rest to make sand debut after achieving little in 6 turf runs, nothing in the breeding to suggest she will be a star on the sand.
18 FOR YOUR EYES ONLY - Reserve. Naidoo. Puts in the occasional decent effort but a c record of 0-1-1 in 12 runs does not inspire great confidence.
PARK RIDGE x QUILICIOUS x SOFT SAND x COPPER GAIA
RACE 2 - 1450 CONDITIONS PLATE
1 FORMATION - SJG/Lerena. Supremely consistent, only failing to hit the top 3 once in 18 c runs and is 3-3-0 in 6 runs over c/d. Broke a frustrating run of 8 consecutive defeats with a comfortable victory over c/d lto. Beaten 1.5l by Magic Smoke in penultimate but has a 2kg swing and that could be enough to reverse the placings.
2 REBEL QUEEN - Spies/Chambers. Decent campaigner with a 2-3-2 record in 11 c runs and has finished ahead of Formation in previous runs over 1200 and 1450. That said, she was beaten 4.25l by Magic Smoke 3 runs back and 29l by Formation lto, is better than that last run suggests but, on current form and being slightly worse off at the weights with both, it is and hard to see form reversals.
3 MAGIC SMOKE - Azzie/Strydom. 3-3-1 in 15 c runs but only 1-2-0 in 7 runs over c/d though in penultimate got up to beat Formation by 1.5l but is now 2kgs worse off. Strydom retains the ride and likely it will be close between them again.
5 NEGEV - Goosen. A colossal weight on her second c appearance gave her little chance lto imo. No less than 13kgs less to carry here but somewhat difficult to assess. I am not yet convinced she loves the surface but in with a chance if I'm wrong.
6 ARABIAN PRINCESS - Sand debut. Breeding suggests a very good chance she will take to the surface. Is coming off a 10 week rest but has a light weight and worth a small e/w stab if a big price.
7 DALALAAT - Moffatt. Looks well held on recent runs and unlikely to feature in this field. Pass.
8 SECRET MAGOK - Pettigrew/MVR. Something of an unknown quantity at this level but I was impressed with her win lto albeit against weaker. Given that the market leaders might give her price a boost I'm going to take a chance on her.
SECRET MAGOK x FORMATION x MAGIC SMOKE but will include ARABIAN PRINCESS in exactas with SM and tris/quarts.
RACE 3 - 1600 MAIDEN
1 SHIRLA - Pettigrew/W'man. Strong combo but not stable elect. Run second three times in 7 c appearances with two of them coming in 4 efforts over c/d. Had Soukous and Calypso Girl 5l and 8l behind over c/d. Noble Wind was also further back but that run probably best ignored for NW who in the two previous runs had finished comfortably infront of Shirla, Unlikely winner imo but place chance,
2 MIGHTY MO - SJG/Lerena. Third in both c starts when running on over 1000 and 1200. Had a 10 week rest and is upped 400 in d but not convinced, based on turf runs, that it will suit and the 10 draw won't make life any easier. No more than a watching brief for me.
3 NOBLE WIND - Disappointing lto when beaten 15l but that run probably best ignored as previous efforts had been much better. The disappointing thing was that was her first decent draw for some time and now finds herself back in 9. Has a modest 0-1-1 in 5 runs over c/d so no superstar but does however hold a few of these rivals on previous runs and in with a chance if back to best.
4 DERAQUA - Naidoo. Beaten 11l on c debut lto (7.75l behind Silent Force) and did little to impress in 4 turf runs. Not for me.
5 ARIELLA - Spies. Debut. Probably the biggest pointer is that Chambers is not up. Nothing in the breeding to confirm she will enjoy the sand. Is well drawn in 2 but can be no more than a watching brief for me.
6 SOUKOUS - Moffatt/Strydom. Third in both c runs to date but in penultimate run was 5l back of Shirla who is now 5kgs better off. Has a place chance but even with Striker up hard to see them winning from the 12 box.
7 CALYPSO GIRL - Erasmus/Brown. One third in 4 c runs but not been within 7l of the winner. Brown up so possibly the stable's strongest but will need to show improvement before I show an interest.
8 FRENCH APPROVAL - Erasmus. Ran 2nd on c debut but has not been within 7.5l of the winner in 4 c appearances, seemingly not stable elect and unlikely to see the winner's enclosure.
10 WRAP ME UP - Azzie. Sand debut. Beaten 13.5l last turf run and at least double that in previous two. Breeding implies though that there is a decent chance she will like the surface but the jockey booking does not suggest to me huge amounts of intent. Has the 1 box though and if a big price then the R1 e/w idiot will make an appearance.
12 SILENT FORCE - MDK. 2nd in both c runs to date over 1200 and though perhaps not up against the strongest of fields they were not bad efforts considering she raced from draws of 7/12 and 12/12. Sin Latigo 3l back in last run. Takes a 400 hike in trip and if she stays then must have a good chance.
13 SIN LATIGO - Spies/Chambers. C debut. Stable elect and improved to be 3l off SF lto over 1200 having been beaten convincingly twice before taking an 18 week rest. She may be better suited to this d and that last run may have brought her on, does not seem likely on the form to date but could improve for the extra 400 in d and has a good draw in 3. Depending on price may be worth a small saver.
NOBLE WIND x SILENT FORCE x SIN LATIGO
RACE 4 - 1800 MAIDEN
Having started this race and seeing how poor it is I stopped. Ajuba has had two seconds over 1600 where he comfortably holds a number of rivals but, those runs are split by a poor effort over this d when he was beaten by some of these. He has run the d and further on the turf and though nothing of note he was not disgraced. Perhaps best to forgive and forget that penultimate run, especially as he had a wide draw that day but, it is a concern. On the other two runs he should really win this with ease but, personally, I won't risk it as he is likely to be a very short price. if he does mess up then perhaps The Bucket Boy or Perfect Vision could take advantage. Fort Dixy if repeating his penultimate effort would feature and I don't discount any of the rest given the weakness of the field but their form really is very poor... AJUBA x THE BUCKET BOY x PERFECT VISION
RACE 5 - 1800 H'CAP-68
1 MEXICAN GLORY - Matchett. 3-3-2 in 25 c runs. With a 15/16 draw, was beaten 4.5l by Elegant Bay over 1600 which, at the weights, compares favourably with those who ran against EB in August over 1800. But, in her penultimate run, she was beaten 4.25l into 5th in her only attempt at this d finishing 1.25l behind Olympic Goal and is now 0.5kg better off with that rival. Certainly not discounted but I just fear the 1800 is that step too far in d.
2 PRETTY LADY - Returned to the sand two runs back (maiden in a h'cap) with a respectable 4.05l 4th to Elegant Bay over c/d. Was 0.05l behind Beautiful Dawn and 1.8l behind Olympic Spring but is now 1.5kgs and 2.5kgs worse off respectively. Followed that by comfortably winning her maiden by 4.5l over c/d but does look held. certainly by OS, and has a wide draw in 10 to contend with here. Possible but something to find.
3 BEAUTIFUL DAWN - For the most part, a consistent performer but one that does not win very often. Has a 1-6-2 record in 24 c runs and is 0-1-1 in 3 c/d efforts. In each of her runs over 1800 she has finished behind Olympic Spring 3.5l (now 2kkgs beter off), 5l (4.5kgs worse off) and in their last meeting, behind Elegant Bay, 1.75l (1kg worse off, Striker was on OS and is now on BD) and as mentioned above, in that run PL was 0.05l back. Has to have a chance, especially with PS retaining the ride. but even if discounting all else, would seem to need OS to run below par.
4 OLYMPIC SPRING - Kenny/Lerena. Very good over c/d with a 2-2-0 record in her 5 attempts in an overall c record of 2-3-1 in 14 runs. Form with BD mentioned above. Hefty defeats in last two over 1600 but only 0.5l off the runner-up (3rd won nto) in penultimate and 2l off third lto. In both those runs finished 0.75l ahead of OG, the latter now being 1kg better off than on their last meeting but in the first of those runs OS was reported as not striding out and was slow away in the second. Albeit, off a lower weight, back in June she ran Miss K to 0.35l and was 2.2l ahead of EB and if she could recapture that form this would probably be a no contest. Good chance if at her best.
5 STAR VOYAGER - No top 3s in 13 c runs and that stat coupled with the fact that she is trying this d for the first time in 40 career runs does not fill me with confidence. Did run over 1450 lto when reported making steady headway but you have to go back almost 3 years to her 4th career run to see she was beaten 33l over 2000 and next run suffered a 14l defeat over 1600, both on turf, before being put back over sprints. Can't be recommended on known facts.
6 OLYMPIC GOAL - Spies/Chambers. Close behind OS in their last two meetings over 1600 but with OS possibly having excuses those statistics may flatter her somewhat. Has only one third in 5 c runs and does look held on overall form. Chance but definitely not the most likely imo.
7 WOODLAND FIRE - Won her maiden over 1600 on her first visit to the c but not been in the top 3 in 4 c runs since, all over 1600, and has been beaten by double-figure lengths on each occasion. Did run a silver over this d in penultimate but that was at Bingo. Unlikely.
8 SEATTLE FAIRY - Won on debut but has struggled thereafter with only one third in 6 c runs since. That 3rd was in her penultimate run, over 1450, but she was 4.75l behind BD and is now 5kgs worse off. Has been beaten over 10l in each of her 3 runs at 1600 or 1800 and hard to make a winning case for her here.
9 DARE TO BE GRAND - Had three disappointing turf runs before a 15 week rest and a change of stable seemed to revitalise her and she returned from that break to run a 3.75l 4th over 1600 here last week having been supported from 35/1 to 27/2. On collateral through Sucha Wonder, BD would seem well ahead but that is based on a run over 1450 when SW was drawn widest. DTBG also raced three wide in her run last week and though the 8 draw is not the best hopefully she will not have to repeat that. The appie helps give her a low weight and given the encouraging sand debut she has a chance of taking the spoils.
10 BERMUDA BOWL - Moffatt. Only one third in 7 c visits and looks well held by a few on his run behind Elegant Bay. In penultimate visit again finished well behind OS. No reason why she should suddenly improve and unlikely to feature.
Not the easiest to decipher. Prices are now up and even given the Striker factor, for me Beautiful Dawn is very short in the market considering Olympic Spring has beaten her over this c/d in their last three meetings. Everything points to OS but my concern is whether she is currently at the top of her game, certainly the run back in June looks on paper to be better than what she has produced since and though that may still be good enough, I doubt Olympic Goal would run her so close if she was firing on all cylinders. If she isn't then Pretty Lady must also enter the equation as she could be improving on the surface and a reversal of the form on her sand debut is not impossible though the wide draw is a concern. There are others too in with a shout but, at the prices, I'm going to chance Dare To Be Grand and hope she comes on for that last run, of course there is the possibility that she will suffer from the 2nd run after a rest syndrome but my hunch is to give her a try... DARE TO BE GRAND x OLYMPIC SPRING x BEAUTIFUL DAWN
RACE 6 - 1000 H'CAP-98
1 FURIOUS DANCER - Naidoo/Lerena. Won her first 4 over c/d, then took a bronze but not been in the top 3 in 4 subsequent c/d runs. Gets 4.5kg pull for being 5l behind Hang Fire lto but was also behind a number of these rivals in her penultimate run. On current form can't be recommended but if returning to her best then could be involved.
2 NICE STRIDE - Erasmus. Won well on his sand debut over this d 4 runs back and has since 4,5l 4th to Here Comes Billy over 1200 when drawn 12/12, a 2.75l 5th back over this c/d before finishing 7th in the Emerald Cup which was probably too far. In the penultimate finished very close to Hang Fire, Cape Winter and Stavinsky and has a 2kg pull with the first two who were only 1l ahead (same weight differential with Stavinsky who was 0.25l back). In his debut win he beat both Benbow (2.25l behind and 2.5kgs better off) and Hang Fire 2.3l behind and 2kgs better off). Has to have a chance.
3 BENBOW - Erasmus/Brown. 4-3-3 in 24 c/d runs and is seemingly stable elect. Close up with a few of these behind Maji Moto three runs back but was beaten 3.5l and 1.75l by Cape Winter and HF respectively. He is now 2kgs better off with both but seems to have a little to find to reverse the form with CW.
4 CAPE WINTER - Naidoo/Fradd. Returned from a 42 week rest to run a 1.8l 4th behind Maji M with a few of these rivals in close proximity but came on for that run to win lto with a few of these behind, Hang Fire getting closest. He is 2-2-0 in 5 over c/d with the other being his 4th when returning from the break. Looks to be a big runner and may still have a little more to come on 3rd run after that rest.
5 HANG FIRE - 4-1-4 in 15 c/d runs and ended a long stretch of near misses when winning lto over 1200. He has a mass of form with others and plenty close calls but the most telling is probably his last effort over c/d when beaten 1.75l by CW, he will probably find that form difficult to reverse and may also find one o two others too quick for him on the day at the weights but not without a chance and likely to be in the vicinity with Strydom aboard.
6 ESCAPE CLAUSE - Zaki/Chambers. 3-2-2 in 13 c runs and successful in his only c/d run in June last year. Has been campaigned over 1200 recently and lto was beaten 3.5l by Stavinsky with no change here to the weight differentials. The drop back to the minimum trip may help and he is on 3rd run after a rest. Not chanceless but a watching brief for me.
7 WINTER'S SONG - Peter. Had a 29 week rest and then a 51 week rest and is well held by a few here on his 2 comeback runs. If at his best then it would be a different story but continues to be a watching brief until he makes a statement regarding a return to form.
8 SUGAR AND SHAKE - Not placed in 2 c starts and beaten 9.5l by Panjo on her last visit over 1450. Not convinced the drop in d will suit, watching brief.
9 VULCAN - Kenny. Made a fair sand debut lto when a fading 2,75l 4th to HF over 1200. Had the advantage of the 1 box then but even so was extremely quick over about the first 600 and would of gone much better but for hanging his head almost sideways for much of the way and having to switch. That was off a 18 week rest so he should be even sharper here and has a 2.5kg pull with HF if Simons can keep his mind on the job then he might take some catching.
10 DENNIS THE MENACE - Zaki. Hit a purple patch between April and July but last few have been somewhat disappointing. Had a small break of 7 weeks which might have helped. Has a 1-1-2 record in 6 c ruins and a silver in his only c/d effort. That was a 0.05l 2nd to HF and with the appie up he is now no less than 6.5kgs better off. If all is well then that must give him a very good chance.
11 STAVINSKY - Erasmus. Has been in very good recent form but has only 1 silver in 4 efforts over c/d. He was however only beaten 3ls in his penultimate run and though he was behind HF, CW and NS only 1.25l separated them. He has a 2kg pull with HF and CW and no change with NS. Has to have a chance but may struggle with CW considering that one was returning from a lengthy rest.
A very decent and competitive sprint and there is only one that I think has no chance. there are three that interest me a little more than the others. Firstly, Dennis The Menace who has an extremely light weight and if he can reproduce his form of earlier in the year must have a big chance. Secondly, Cape Winter, he seems to hold a few of the main contenders here and might have a little more to come. Thirdly, Vulcan, whose early pace impressed me lto and may well be better suited to 1000 on the sand and again, with that last run potentially bringing him on he could be very dangerous. There are questions about DTM as to whether he is in full throttle at the moment so he could be a risk and the price is not big enough for me to chance. Logic says Cape Winter but the "nag" says Vulcan. I have rarely seen Hang Fire quite so far back after 600 and though I have concerns with the "hanging head" I'm going with the nag... VULCAN x CAPE WINTER x DENNIS THE MENACE
RACE 7 - 1000 MAIDEN
1 GABRONZA - Azzie/Lerena. Seems to have lost form of late. Made a blistering start over 1200 lto but faded very badly and was beaten 7.25l by Mr Alfonso over c/d in his penultimate outing. He is better than that and has a 3.5kg swing in the weights but will need to show his stamina and ability again after fading in his last three starts. A watching brief for me until so doing.
2 MR ALFONSO - Lucky H. Yet to finish out of the top 3 in his 7 c runs and is 1-1-2 in 4 over c/d. Won his last two runs over c/d with the blinkers on (and had a few of these rivals well beaten) before removing them and being beaten 6.25l over 1200. Blinkers are back on and a return to this d make him , despite a hike in the weights, very much the one to beat for me.
3 HOWHIGHCANUFLY - Magner. Has 3 seconds in 9 runs over c/d and, although he has put in some creditable efforts, I never get the feeling he is a likely winner. It is the same here, I doubt he will be far away, could even win but he is just not one that convinces me to support him.
4 MELLI MOU - Pettigrew/MVR. 1-1-2 in 4 c starts and one of each medal in his 3 over c/d. He was very disappointing on the turf though lto and four runs back was beaten 2l by Twilight Elva over c/d and there is no change in the weight differential. Not without a chance but not the most likely for me.
5 TWILIGHT ELVA - Won under Striker 4 runs back when beating MM by 2l. Lto was disappointing and the run will need to be ignored but, he is not the most consistent with his 2 wins in 8 c/d runs being his only top 3s in 15 c starts. If he responds to PS again then has a fair chance but a risk for me and I think others are safer options.
6 ANGEL GABRIEL - SJG. Ran a 2.25l 2nd in a decent field last week which was his first top 3 in 4 c runs so may be improving. he has a 3.5kg pull with MrA for a 4l defeat 3 runs back and though he has a shout my gut feeling is that it won't be enough to reverse the form.
7 SOCIETI - Goosen. Sand debut. Not the best turf form in his last 3 turf runs after winning on debut but, is this another Louis sharp one? Breeding suggests there is a good chance he will take to the surface and if so doing he has to have a chance. Returns from a 19 week rest but hoping the price will drift and then a nibble will be taken.
8 HIGHLAND LAD - Three 3rds in 8 runs over c/d is unlikely to be good enough here and he was 7.25l back of AG over 1200 last week and back in August was beaten 7.75l by MrA over c/d. Was better under Khumalo lto over c/d and he is back up here but not the most likely to be the one going to the winner's box imo.
9 PERFECT TRIP - Won maiden at the 2nd time of asking over c/d in a WR event and the field was not the strongest. Doubt the form of that run is strong enough for him to trouble the judge in this company.
10 SWING AWAY - Won his maiden here in his third career start but has since appeared 9 times on c (5 over c/d) without finishing in the top 3 and does much better at Bingo these days. Pass.
11 CONISTON GOLD - Not closer than 7.25l of the winner in his 3 c runs over 1000/1200 and I can't see that statistic improving here. Pass.
Mr Alfonso makes a lot of appeal here if only because, at least in part, the rest don't. I am tempted by LG's sand debutant but the rest is a concern and on what is known Mr A has to be the more sensible route. Howhighcanyoufly could be thereabouts as could Twilight Elva back under PS. Gabronza could stake a claim if recapturing form but it may be Angel Gabriel who gives the selection most to do as he seems to be steadily improving as do the stable... MR ALFONSO x ANGEL GABRIEL x SOCIETI
RACE 8 - 1450 B'CAP-66
1 VIRGIL CANE - 8l behind Velddrifter when drawn 10/10 and returning from a 27 week break was followed by a 30l beating over 1200 when drawn 11/12. A previous complete idiot selection I have had a miniscule nibble at 66s again, if only because if by some miracle he comes in this time and I was not on, the kick I would give myself would be very painful lol
2 OKLAHOMA TRIPPI - A 2.5l 2nd on sand debut was followed by his maiden win over 1200. Took a 14 week rest and was well beaten over 1600 before finishing a 4.25l 8th over 1450 with both Magic of Rome (1.5l) and King Scott (0.95l) infront, OT is now 2kg better off with both. If he needed both runs and comes here all guns blazing then he is in with a chance.
3 MAGIC OF ROME - Came out of the maidens at the 52nd attempt in penultimate run here over 1200 and followed that by running a decent 2.75l 4th to Passion Pleaser over c/d, finishing infront of MOR and KS, see above! Has a good draw in 2 and in with a chance.
4 FLAMING FORGE - Has won 2 of his 8 c visits including one of his two runs over c/d. That win came in his penultimate run when returning to the sand after a long absence. he is drawn 14 here but won that day by 3.5l when drawn 12/13. Up 7kgs on that win but had KS and Chedwin Park 5.25l and 8.25l back respectively. KS is 2.5kg better off and CP is 1.5kg worse off. If reproducing that run here is a big runner despite the wide draw again.
5 ESTANCIA - Magner. Won his maiden on c debut but no top 3s since in 4 c visits. Was beaten 7l by Velddrifter 3 runs back over c/d and in his penultimate run, was 5.5l behind King Scott over 1600 and gets only a 2kg pull though he has much the better draw of the two here. Not the likeliest but not completely chanceless.
6 LEVANTO - Zaki/Lerena. Visited the c three times as a maiden and took a third (beaten 14.5l) over c/d, 4th over 1000 and 6th (beaten 10.75l) over 1200. Has been running ok on the turf and finished 3rd lto after a 22 week rest. Drawn well in 4 and Lerena up but I am just not convinced he loves the surface and I'll take a watching brief.
7 TOBE TURF TERROR - Respectable 4.25l 5th to Velddrifter over c/d lto when coming out of the maidens. Finished (next to CP and) 3l behind KS and though there is no change to the weight differential he is much the better drawn of the three here and has the services of Striker to guide him. Chance.
8 CHEDWIN PARK - Erasmus/Brown. Consistent performer who has often been drawn wide and often struggles to put in a telling blow in those circumstances and unfortunately he is drawn 11 here. Romped home in penultimate over 1600 when drawn 5 but lto was a 4.3l 6th to Velddrifter 3.05l behind KS who was drawn in 2. KS is 1.5kgs better off. Always has a chance but the draw is a big concern again.
9 MYSTIC JET - Naidoo. Returned from a 10 week rest to make sand debut lto and finished a 7.5l 7th over 1200. May come on for the run but with a draw of 13 here I'd rather do a watching brief again here.
10 CELTIC KING - Won debut on sand on his second c run but since has finished outside the top 3 in all 6 c runs. Was 1.25l back of Strong Blaze lto over 1200 and is 2.5kgs worse off. With the 12 draw hard to see him staking a claim.
11 KING SCOTT - Not beaten more than 5.25l in his last 6 runs and has finished in the top 4 in 5 of those. Has faile dto take advantage of some improved draws recently and unfortunately now finds himself drawn 15. Was 1.55l behind Velddrifter lto with MOR 0.55l ahead (same weight differential) and OT 0.95l further back but the latter gets a 2kg pull. A chance but will be tough from that draw.
12 STRONG BLAZE - Beaten 4.75l over 1200 on c debut last time out which was a reasonable if unspectacular start. Overall form does not give any increase to the confidence levels and I'll continue a watching brief until there is more evidence.
13 SHOE HORN - Moffatt. Sand debut. Breeding suggests a chance he will take to the surface. Money for the stable's debutant in the opener so one might expect money for this one too if there was confidence. Even so, the idiot will nibble given the big price based on the breeding, he is drawn in poll and the fact that he does not seem the most consistent but has put in the occasional decent run on the turf.
14 FIRST SUGAR - One third in 4 c runs and that came when drawn 1 over 1200 and was still beaten 6l. Has been well beaten in his other 3 appearances and makes no appeal from the 10 box.
15 SMART ROYAL - Reserve. No top 3s in 3 c runs, comes off an 11 week rest and is drawn widest of all. Not likely to feature if getting a run.
16 CLEARLY KEEN - Reserve. No top 3s in 5 c runs and not likely to feature if getting a run.
Difficult end to proceedings with the draw possibly influential as both King Scott and Chedwin Park have seemed to struggle to overcome high draws previously. I'll go with Flaming Forge though to overcome it again though plenty in with a chance and a couple of idiot opportunities... FLAMING FORGE x MAGIC OF ROME x OKLAHOMA TRIPPI x TOBE TURF TERROR
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- shrek
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Re: Re: Vaal Sand Jottings - Thursday 17/10
11 years 7 months ago
shrek Wrote:
> Thanks mate for the effort again. Great write up.
> I am just concerned that afternoon showers are
> predicted today and hope we can get through the
> card. (tu)
you have always got to bring a damper to the proceedings.
<
another fine piece of work englander(tu)
> Thanks mate for the effort again. Great write up.
> I am just concerned that afternoon showers are
> predicted today and hope we can get through the
> card. (tu)
you have always got to bring a damper to the proceedings.
<another fine piece of work englander(tu)
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- Zietsman Oosthuizen
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