Beach Beauty v Cape Town Noir

winzip Wrote:

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> 1 horse race so fill your boots and take the
> proffessional double,ctn onto red ray.

With you on that one. Cashing in!!

My money is on ctn. Draw not an issue. 11% from 14 draw as opposed to 10% from draw 3 in the last 934 races. That puts that argument to bed. Was at the course early two weeks ago on a Saturday. Nesius, Behr and Bernard were putting the horses through their paces. Looked like they were prepping winners. I amexpecting a big day for the Selangor king!

The draw stats as shown in Computaform for the Ken 1600 is certainly confusing - does anyone know if seperate stats is kept for the 'Old' course and the 'New' course? The stats show that horses drawn at gate 14 have won 7 out of 49 races (14%) and horses drawn at gate 3 have won 18 out of 182 races (10%)

At face value these stats indicate that horses being drawn at gate 14 have a slightly better chance of winning as opposed to horses being drawn at gate 3.

HOWEVER

Horses drawn at gate 13 have won 0 out of 72 races
Horses drawn at gate 15 have won 2 out of 27 races

So I would assume that given a bigger sample, horses drawn at gate 14 would also average out a max 10% (probably less) success rate overall

Horses drawn at gate 2 have won 32 out of 18 races (17.5 %)
but
Horses drawn at gates 4 and 5 have only won 11 (6%) and 10 (5.5%) races out of 182 respectively

So trying to get to some sort of conclusion in terms of the 'draw factor' is not easy (only one scratching in the race would alter the chances of CTN and BB significantly according to the raw stats); it would seem that being drawn 1 or 2 holds a slight advantage, but for the rest it does look to be much of a muchness

So we need to look at the weights; if one trusts the handicappers (and I do in this case), Beach Beauty is clearly the right horse, she is rated 7 'pounds' higher than CTN - over this trip this equates to around 3 and a half lenghts imo - I don't believe the winning margin would be quite that - but imo the only chance that CTN has of finishing in front of BB (get the feeling I'm going to be ducking eggs again), is if BB somehow runs below par (which she did when running in the Merchants last year this time - but that was over 1200 of course)

A fascinating race (tu)

extremely interesting race, but for me not a betting prospect.

Howard Wrote:

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> My money is on ctn. Draw not an issue. 11% from 14
> draw as opposed to 10% from draw 3 in the last 934
> races. That puts that argument to bed. Was at the
> course early two weeks ago on a Saturday. Nesius,
> Behr and Bernard were putting the horses through
> their paces. Looked like they were prepping
> winners. I amexpecting a big day for the Selangor
> king!


I am 100% with you Howard.Will you be at the course tomorrow?

DD to win with BB!

I'M with BEACH BEAUTY & that draw - pity about the cramped odds !

I really don't think we have seen the best of CTN - I think the sw with King Of Pain and No Worries is worth a go

a bit stiff there Mr. H - 2nd, 4th & 5th.

So what do we make of the race - imo CTN showed once again that he is a little 'over-hyped' - Beach Beauty may just be coming to the end of the road ?

,,,,,no one expected such a blistering pace.....then trying to quicken without cover cost the goodies the race.....DK s spare ran out of his skin.... relished conditions and was on the better side of the track.....

Pace separates the men from the boys, cape town noir is no superstar