Can one of these 3 year olds win the Met?

PeterD Wrote:

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> Last week the official handicappers had the top
> 3yo colts as follows:
> Captain of All. 108
> Kochka. 105
> Red Ray 104
> Forest Indigo. 104
> Willow Magic 104
> Jimmy Choo. 103
> Antonius du Bois 101
> Whistle Stop 100
> Captain America. 97
> For some weird reason the Lanzerac result was
> ignored by them, otherwise Captain America would
> presumably have been above Red Ray.
>
> After the Guineas, they will presumably do
> something like:
> Elusive Gold 107
> Captain America 106
>
> Power King and Roman Manner on the above scale ran
> 102 but were unplaced so their ratings may not
> change (87 and 89)
> We can ignore Whistle Stop's run here- he was very
> difficult in the parade, and ran no kind of race.
>
> 1. I think these top horses are all underrated by
> the official handicapper by at least 5 lb.
> 2. Which is the best miler?
> At the moment it has to be between Elusive Gold
> and Captain America, followed by Red Ray.
> There is nothing between Kochka,Forest Indigo and
> Willow Magic, and they are close behind.
> Captain of All has yet to go a mile, and is also
> top class.
> Captain America had some valid excuses on Saturday
> (spread shoe and also slightly impeded earlier in
> the race by Red Ray)
> It was a fast run race with a noticeable headwind
> and a true test of stamina over the mile with the
> long run in.
> I would still go with Elusive Gold ahead of
> Captain America based on his rate of improvement
> and devastating late kick, but it's not
> conclusive.
> 3. Which is the best 2000m horse?
> Too soon to tell as none have yet tried. I don't
> think that Red Ray will stay. Elusive Gold looks
> like he could carry the form the extra 400m.
> Forest Indigo, Whistle Stop and Willow Magic
> should also stay. His trainer has always said that
> Captain America will go the trip, but I think
> there must be some doubts.
> Roman Manner ( ran on best from tail of the field)
> and Power King will need to be taken seriously
> over the longer trip.


Agree with most things youve said except that i think Kochka is above Forest Indigo...Will see out every bit of the 2000m aswel.Ignore Whistle Stops run yesterday....This horse is in the same class as Elusive Gold.

Raiding Cape Town from Jhb is traditionally tough..............even Ferraris ,Heming etc battled and when MdK was really serious,he moved horses early to the Ramsden yard (Horse Chestnut etc. did not raid and.its why I asked about Whistle Stop movements.)
IF he stays in Cape Town and the Met is his target.................careful MdK doesn't remain the only trainer to win the Met with a 3 yr old.................he has made no secret that he believes the 2000m to be ideal!!

If Jackson runs to form,he will win the Met and then the July.

"Captain America is a 14-1 chance for the J&B Met but Crawford said he will go for the Investec Cape Derby on the same day." - Michael Clower ( Gold Circle )

www.goldcircle.co.za/news/Trainers/today.shtml

Whistle Stop's 2nd in The Dingaans was a better performance than Elusive Gold's victory in the Cape Guineas...

Master Sabina was the big deal before the SC now nobody give him a chance in the Met. I'm going start printing some 20/1 tickets.

keniza999 Wrote:

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> Master Sabina was the big deal before the SC now
> nobody give him a chance in the Met. I'm going
> start printing some 20/1 tickets.


The Summer Cup is a handicap, so he was receiving weight from many - the Met is not a handicap, so he will have a tougher task at mostly level weights (or receiving 2 kg's from the Gr 1 winners) - that's why he is at 20/1

pirates Wrote:

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> i must say its nice to be discussing this subject
> compared to a few recent threads...rob you could
> be right and i will play devils advocate in that
> in the 3yos favour plenty of our better horses get
> exported before they reach their full potential as
> 4yos unlike 10 to 15 years ago and also not many
> 3yos have tried running in the met prefering to go
> derby route same day..in your favour is that the
> weights of the met have changed dramatically since
> dekock won it with his pair of 3yos....


This type of thread is the main reason I joined ABC (and Freeracer and SFRW before) ... discuss form and punting with fellow racing enthusiasts.

Frodo Wrote:

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> keniza999 Wrote:
>

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>

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> > Master Sabina was the big deal before the SC
> now
> > nobody give him a chance in the Met. I'm going
> > start printing some 20/1 tickets.
>
>
> The Summer Cup is a handicap, so he was receiving
> weight from many - the Met is not a handicap, so
> he will have a tougher task at mostly level
> weights (or receiving 2 kg's from the Gr 1
> winners) - that's why he is at 20/1

True Frodo but considering the way he finished and the time of the race I'm convinced he will be a big runner in the met despite the extra 4kg. This year's SC had such a high quality field and the top six will dominate this season.

The Madji Wrote:

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> pirates Wrote:
>

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>

---

> > i must say its nice to be discussing this
> subject
> > compared to a few recent threads...rob you
> could
> > be right and i will play devils advocate in
> that
> > in the 3yos favour plenty of our better horses
> get
> > exported before they reach their full potential
> as
> > 4yos unlike 10 to 15 years ago and also not
> many
> > 3yos have tried running in the met prefering to
> go
> > derby route same day..in your favour is that
> the
> > weights of the met have changed dramatically
> since
> > dekock won it with his pair of 3yos....
>
>
> This type of thread is the main reason I joined
> ABC (and Freeracer and SFRW before) ... discuss
> form and punting with fellow racing enthusiasts.


Same here!

I was always andwill always be a jackson fan..
But I tell u, if Jackson is not at his peak. MOMF will walk all over him

These 3 yr olds wont touch MOMF